gabrielmoreira AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration
Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.
What This Skill Does
| Concept | Description |
|---|---|
| Event Probability | The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome) |
| Options-Implied Probability | The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew |
| Probability Spread | The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing |
| Arbitrage Signal | When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity |
| Event Correlation | How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions |
| Historical Accuracy | Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events |
How to Use
Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.
Output:
- Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
- Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
- Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
- Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
- Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events
Example Queries:
polymarket signals— Scan for the largest probability mismatches right nowprediction market vs options rate cut— Compare Fed rate cut odds across marketsevent probability election— Election outcome probabilities vs options positioningrate cut odds— What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meetingpolymarket arbitrage— Actionable mispricing opportunities
Mock Data
Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:
rate-cut-comparison.json— Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-impliedevent-scan.json— Top mispricing signals across active prediction marketshistorical-accuracy.json— Past event forecasting accuracy by market type
API Endpoint
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/signals
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/event/{event_id}
Query parameters:
event_type(string) — Filter: "fed", "election", "earnings", "macro", "all"min_spread(float, default 0.10) — Minimum probability spread to surface (10%)include_trades(bool, default true) — Include suggested options trades
Response fields: events[], polymarket_prob, options_implied_prob, spread, confidence, suggested_trades[], historical_accuracy
Related Skills
| Skill | Relevance |
|---|---|
| alphagbm-market-sentiment | Macro sentiment context for interpreting event probabilities |
| alphagbm-options-strategy | Strategy recommendations that can exploit mispricing signals |
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