gabrielmoreira Cash Flow Forecast Skill
Profit is an opinion; cash is a fact — and businesses fail by running out of it even while "profitable". A short-term (commonly 13-week) cash flow forecast shows, week by week, whether money coming in covers money going out, and when the tightest point hits. This skill builds that forecast's structure and math so you can see trouble early and act.
Note: this is a planning aid, not financial, investment, or accounting advice. It structures a forecast from figures you provide and projects from your assumptions; it does not guarantee outcomes. Confirm material decisions with a qualified accountant/advisor. Never invent actual balances or amounts.
Working from a brief
Given "build me a 13-week cash flow", produce the full structure anyway — lay out the model with the formulas and a worked example using placeholder figures (replace with your numbers). Use the real numbers where the user gave them; never fabricate a starting balance or a result.
Required Inputs
Ask for these only if they aren't already provided (else use labelled placeholders):
- Starting cash — current bank balance (the opening position).
- Inflows — expected receipts and their timing (customer payments, with realistic collection timing, not invoice date).
- Outflows — scheduled payments and timing (payroll, rent, suppliers, loan repayments, tax, subscriptions).
- Horizon & purpose — 13 weeks (default) or other, and what decision it informs (a crunch, a hire, a raise).
Output Format
13-Week Cash Flow Forecast: [business]
- How it works — the model in one line:
Closing cash = Opening cash + Inflows − Outflows, run week over week (each week's closing is the next week's opening). - Forecast table — a week-by-week layout (template + a worked example with placeholder figures):
| Week | Opening cash | Inflows | Outflows | Net | Closing cash |
|---|
Break inflows/outflows into their main lines (receipts; payroll, rent, suppliers, tax…) so it's actionable.
- Key read-outs — the lowest cash point and which week it hits, weeks that go negative (the warning), and total net movement over the horizon.
- Assumptions — collection timing, what's committed vs. expected, and anything to confirm — stated explicitly (the forecast is only as good as these).
- If cash goes tight — levers — accelerate receivables, delay/stagger payables, cut/defer discretionary spend, draw on credit, or raise — with the trade-offs.
Mark all placeholder figures (replace with your numbers).
Quality Checks
- Built on cash timing (when money actually moves), not invoice/accrual dates
- The week-over-week roll-forward is correct (closing → next opening) and the math is shown
- The lowest cash point and any negative weeks are surfaced clearly
- Assumptions (collection timing, committed vs. expected) are explicit
- Numbers are real where provided and placeholders elsewhere — nothing invented
- Practical levers are offered for a tight-cash scenario with trade-offs
Anti-Patterns
- Do not use invoice dates for inflows — model when cash is actually expected to land
- Do not invent a starting balance or amounts — use the user's figures or labelled placeholders
- Do not hide the assumptions — a forecast without them is false precision
- Do not bury the low point — the whole purpose is to see the crunch coming
- Do not present projections as guarantees or as financial advice
Based On
Cash management practice — short-horizon (13-week) cash flow forecasting on payment timing, low-point analysis, explicit assumptions, and liquidity levers.