Earnings Preview

Earnings Preview

description: Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock. Triggers on "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", or "preview Q[X] for [company]".

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Context

• Identify the company and reporting quarter
• Use get_company_overview tool — includes earnings history (actual vs estimate), analyst consensus, price targets, rating distribution
• Use get_daily_prices tool for recent price history and to identify the earnings date window
• Use get_sec_filing tool — auto-attaches earnings call transcript for 10-K/10-Q filings (review prior quarter for guidance or commentary)
• Use WebSearch / WebFetch for recent news and sentiment heading into earnings

Step 2: Key Metrics Framework

Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:

Financial Metrics:

• Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment)
• EPS vs. consensus
• Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting?
• Free cash flow
• Forward guidance vs. consensus

Operational Metrics (sector-specific):

• Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
• Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
• Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
• Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income
• Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates

Step 3: Scenario Analysis

Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications:

For each scenario:

• What would need to happen operationally
• What management commentary would signal this
• Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints?

Step 4: Catalyst Checklist

Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction:

1. [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters
2. [Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear
3. [Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring

Step 5: Output

Save all deliverables to $WORK_DIR/work/{task}/. One-page earnings preview with:

• Company, quarter, earnings date
• Consensus estimates table
• Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance)
• Bull/base/bear scenario table
• Catalyst checklist
• Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move from options

Important Notes

• Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates
• "Whisper numbers" from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus
• Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations — use get_company_overview for historical actual vs estimate data
• Options-implied move tells you what the market expects — compare to your scenarios
• Save all output files to $WORK_DIR/work/{task}/