gabrielmoreira Purpose
Evaluate the financial impact of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.
What this is: Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.
What this is NOT: Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future pricing-strategy-suite skills.
This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.
Input
Works best with: The pricing change on the table — increase, new tier, add-on, or discount — and current pricing. Also useful: Current ARPU/ARPA, conversion and churn baselines, NRR, and who's pushing for the change.
Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended ARGUMENTS: line — counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.
Arriving empty-handed? That works too. The advisor opens by asking what change is proposed and what today's pricing looks like.
Example invocation: Evaluate raising our Pro plan from $49 to $59/seat; ARPU $52, monthly logo churn 1.8%, NRR 108%.
Key Concepts
The Pricing Impact Framework
A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:
Revenue Impact — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?
- Direct revenue lift from price increase
- Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
- Net revenue impact
Conversion Impact — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?
- Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
- Better packaging may improve conversion
- Test assumptions
Churn Risk — Will existing customers leave due to price change?
- Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
- Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
- Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)
Expansion Impact — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?
- New premium tier = upsell path
- Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
- Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities
CAC Payback Impact — Does pricing change affect unit economics?
- Higher ARPU = faster payback
- Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
- Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio
Pricing Change Types
Direct monetization changes:
- Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
- New premium tier (create upsell path)
- Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
- Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)
Discount strategies:
- Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)
- Volume discounts (larger deals)
- Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction)
Packaging changes:
- Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)
- Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)
- Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa)
Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)
- Not value-based pricing: This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"
- Not WTP research: This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"
- Not competitive positioning: This is financial analysis, not market positioning
- Not packaging architecture: This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers
When to Use This Framework
Use this when:
- You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")
- You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs
- You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)
- You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board
Don't use this when:
- You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)
- You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)
- You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)
- Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected)
Facilitation Source of Truth
Use workshop-facilitation as the default interaction protocol for this skill.
It defines:
- session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)
- one-question turns with plain-language prompts
- progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)
- interruption handling and pause/resume behavior
- numbered recommendations at decision points
- quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include
Other (specify)when useful)
This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic.
Application
This interactive skill asks up to 4 adaptive questions, offering 3-5 enumerated options at decision points.
Step 0: Gather Context
Agent asks:
"Let's evaluate the financial impact of your pricing change. Please provide:
Current pricing:
- Current ARPU or ARPA
- Current pricing tiers (if applicable)
- Current monthly churn rate
- Current trial-to-paid conversion rate (if relevant)
Proposed pricing change:
- What change are you considering? (price increase, new tier, add-on, etc.)
- New pricing (if known)
- Affected customer segment (all, new only, specific tier)
Business context:
- Total customers (or MRR/ARR)
- CAC (to assess payback impact)
- NRR (to assess expansion context)
You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers."
Step 1: Identify Pricing Change Type
Agent asks:
"What type of pricing change are you considering?
- Price increase — Raise prices for new customers, existing customers, or both
- New premium tier — Add higher-priced tier with additional features
- Paid add-on — Monetize a new or existing feature separately
- Usage-based pricing — Charge for consumption (seats, API calls, storage, etc.)
- Discount strategy — Annual prepay discount, volume pricing, or promotional pricing
- Packaging change — Rebundle features, change pricing metric, or tier restructure
Choose a number, or describe your specific pricing change."
Based on selection, agent adapts questions:
If Option 1 (Price Increase):
Agent asks:
"Price increase details:
- Current price: $___
- New price: $___
- Increase: ___%
Who is affected?
- New customers only (grandfather existing)
- All customers (existing + new)
- Specific segment (e.g., SMB only, new plan only)
When would this take effect?
- Immediately
- Next billing cycle
- Gradual rollout (test first)"
If Option 2 (New Premium Tier):
Agent asks:
"Premium tier details:
- Current top tier price: $___
- New premium tier price: $___
- Key features in premium tier: [list]
Expected adoption:
- What % of current customers might upgrade? ___%
- What % of new customers might choose premium? ___%
Cannibalization risk:
- Will premium tier cannibalize current top tier?"
If Option 3 (Paid Add-On):
Agent asks:
"Add-on details:
- Add-on name: ___
- Price: $___ /month or /user
- Currently free or new feature?
Expected adoption:
- What % of customers would pay for this? ___%
- Is this feature currently used (if free)?
- Will making it paid hurt retention?"
If Option 4 (Usage-Based Pricing):
Agent asks:
"Usage pricing details:
- Usage metric: (seats, API calls, storage, transactions, etc.)
- Pricing: $___ per [unit]
- Free tier or minimum? (e.g., first 1,000 API calls free)
Expected impact:
- Average customer usage: ___ units/month
- Expected ARPU change: $current → $new
Expansion potential:
- As customers grow usage, will ARPU increase?"
If Option 5 (Discount Strategy):
Agent asks:
"Discount details:
- Discount type: (annual prepay, volume, promotional)
- Discount amount: ___% off
- Duration: (ongoing, limited time)
Trade-off:
- Lower price vs. improved cash flow (annual prepay)
- Lower price vs. larger deal size (volume)
- Lower price vs. urgency (promotional)"
If Option 6 (Packaging Change):
Agent asks:
"Packaging change details:
- What are you changing? (bundling, unbundling, pricing metric)
- Current packaging: [describe]
- New packaging: [describe]
Expected impact:
- ARPU change: $current → $new
- Conversion change: ___% → ___%
- Churn risk: (low, medium, high)"
Step 2: Assess Expected Impact
Agent asks:
"Now let's quantify the impact. Based on your pricing change, estimate:
Revenue impact:
- Current ARPU: $___
- Expected new ARPU: $___
- ARPU lift: ___%
Conversion impact:
- Current conversion rate: ___%
- Expected new conversion rate: ___%
- Conversion change: [increase / decrease / no change]
Churn risk:
- Current monthly churn: ___%
- Expected churn after change: ___%
- Churn risk: [low / medium / high]
Expansion impact:
- Does this create expansion opportunities? (new tier to upgrade to, usage growth)
- Expected NRR change: ___% → ___%
You can provide estimates. We'll model scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic)."
Step 3: Evaluate Current State
Agent asks:
"To assess whether this pricing change makes sense, I need your current baseline:
Current metrics:
- MRR or ARR: $___
- Number of customers: ___
- ARPU/ARPA: $___
- Monthly churn rate: ___%
- NRR: ___%
- CAC: $___
- LTV: $___
Growth context:
- Current growth rate: ___% MoM or YoY
- Target growth rate: ___%
Competitive context:
- Are you priced below, at, or above market?
- Competitive pressure: (low, medium, high)"
Step 4: Deliver Recommendations
Agent synthesizes:
- Revenue impact (ARPU lift × customer base)
- Conversion impact (new customers affected)
- Churn impact (existing customers affected)
- Net revenue impact
- CAC payback impact
- Risk assessment
Agent offers 3-4 recommendations:
Recommendation Pattern 1: Implement Broadly
When:
- Net revenue impact clearly positive (>10% ARPU lift, <5% churn risk)
- Minimal conversion impact
- Strong value justification
Recommendation:
"Implement this pricing change — Strong financial case
Revenue Impact:
- Current MRR: $___
- ARPU lift: ___% ($current → $new)
- Expected MRR increase: +$/month (+%)
Churn Risk: Low
- Expected churn increase: ___% → % (+% points)
- Churn-driven MRR loss: -$___/month
- Net MRR impact: +$___/month ✅
Conversion Impact:
- Current conversion: ___%
- Expected conversion: % (% change)
- Impact on new customer acquisition: [minimal / manageable]
CAC Payback Impact:
- Current payback: ___ months
- New payback: ___ months (faster due to higher ARPU)
Why this works: [Specific reasoning based on numbers]
How to implement:
- Grandfather existing customers (if raising prices)
- Protect current base from churn
- New pricing for new customers only
- Communicate value
- Emphasize features, outcomes, ROI
- Justify price with value delivered
- Monitor metrics (first 30-60 days)
- Conversion rate (should stay within ___%)
- Churn rate (should stay <___%)
- Customer feedback
Expected timeline:
- Month 1: +$___ MRR from new customers
- Month 3: +$___ MRR (cumulative)
- Month 6: +$___ MRR
- Year 1: +$___ ARR
Success criteria:
- Conversion rate stays >___%
- Churn rate stays <___%
- NRR improves to >___%"
Recommendation Pattern 2: Test First (A/B Test)
When:
- Uncertain impact (wide range between conservative and optimistic)
- Moderate churn or conversion risk
- Large customer base (can test with subset)
Recommendation:
"Test with a segment before broad rollout — Impact is uncertain
Why test:
- ARPU lift estimate: ___% (wide confidence interval)
- Churn risk: Medium (___% → ___%)
- Conversion impact: Uncertain (___% → ___% estimated)
Test design:
Cohort A (Control):
- Current pricing: $___
- Size: ___% of new customers (or ___ customers)
Cohort B (Test):
- New pricing: $___
- Size: ___% of new customers (or ___ customers)
Duration: 60-90 days (need statistical significance)
Metrics to track:
- Conversion rate (A vs. B)
- ARPU (A vs. B)
- 30-day retention (A vs. B)
- 90-day churn (A vs. B)
- NRR (A vs. B)
Decision criteria:
Roll out broadly if:
- Conversion rate (B) >___% of control (A)
- Churn rate (B) <___% higher than control
- Net revenue (B) >___% higher than control
Don't roll out if:
- Conversion drops >___%
- Churn increases >___%
- Net revenue impact negative
Expected timeline:
- Week 1-2: Launch test
- Week 8-12: Enough data for statistical significance
- Month 3: Decision to roll out or kill
Risk: Medium. Test mitigates risk before broad rollout."
Recommendation Pattern 3: Modify Approach
When:
- Original proposal has significant risk
- Better alternative exists
- Need to adjust pricing change to improve outcomes
Recommendation:
"Modify your approach — Original proposal has risks
Original Proposal:
- [Price increase / New tier / Add-on / etc.]
- Expected ARPU lift: ___%
- Churn risk: High (___% → ___%)
- Net revenue impact: Uncertain or negative
Problem: [Specific issue: e.g., "20% price increase will likely cause 10% churn, wiping out revenue gains"]
Alternative Approach:
Option 1: Smaller price increase
- Instead of ___% increase, try ___%
- Lower churn risk (___% vs. ___%)
- Still positive net revenue: +$___/month
Option 2: Grandfather existing, raise for new only
- Protect current base (zero churn risk)
- Higher prices for new customers only
- Gradual ARPU improvement over time
Option 3: Value-based pricing (charge more for high-value segments)
- Keep SMB pricing flat
- Raise enterprise pricing ___%
- Lower churn risk (enterprise is stickier)
Recommended: [Specific option with reasoning]
Why this is better:
- Lower churn risk
- Comparable revenue upside
- Easier to communicate
How to implement: [Specific steps for alternative approach]"
Recommendation Pattern 4: Don't Change Pricing
When:
- Net revenue impact negative or marginal
- High churn risk without offsetting gains
- Competitive or strategic reasons to hold pricing
Recommendation:
"Don't change pricing — Risks outweigh benefits
Why:
- Expected revenue lift: +$/month (%)
- Expected churn impact: -$/month (%)
- Net revenue impact: -$___/month 🚨 or marginal
Problem: [Specific issue: e.g., "Churn-driven revenue loss exceeds price increase gains"]
What would need to change:
For price increase to work:
- Churn rate must stay below ___% (currently ___%)
- OR conversion rate must stay above ___% (currently ___%)
- OR you need to reduce CAC to offset lower conversion
Alternative strategies:
Instead of raising prices:
- Improve retention — Reduce churn from ___% to ___% (same revenue impact as price increase, lower risk)
- Expand within base — Increase NRR from ___% to ___% via upsells
- Reduce CAC — More efficient acquisition (better than pricing)
When to revisit pricing:
- After improving retention (churn <___%)
- After validating willingness-to-pay (WTP research)
- After competitive landscape changes
Decision: Hold pricing for now, focus on [retention / expansion / acquisition efficiency]."
Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis (Optional)
Agent offers:
"Want to see what-if scenarios?
- Optimistic case — Higher ARPU lift, lower churn
- Pessimistic case — Lower ARPU lift, higher churn
- Breakeven analysis — What churn rate makes this neutral?
Or ask any follow-up questions."
Agent can provide:
- Scenario modeling (optimistic/pessimistic/breakeven)
- Sensitivity tables (if churn is X%, revenue impact is Y)
- Comparison to alternative pricing strategies
Examples
See examples/ folder for sample conversation flows. Mini examples below:
Example 1: Price Increase (Good Case)
Scenario: 20% price increase for new customers only
Current state:
- ARPU: $100/month
- Customers: 1,000
- MRR: $100K
- Churn: 3%/month
- New customers/month: 50
Proposed change:
- New customer pricing: $120/month (+20%)
- Existing customers: Grandfathered at $100
Impact:
- New customer ARPU: $120 (+20%)
- Churn risk: Low (existing protected)
- Conversion impact: Minimal (<5% drop estimated)
Recommendation: Implement. Net revenue impact +$12K/year with low risk.
Example 2: Price Increase (Risky)
Scenario: 30% price increase for all customers
Current state:
- ARPU: $50/month
- Customers: 5,000
- MRR: $250K
- Churn: 5%/month (already high)
Proposed change:
- All customers: $65/month (+30%)
Impact:
- ARPU lift: +30% = +$75K MRR
- Churn risk: High (5% → 8% estimated)
- Churn-driven loss: 3% × 5,000 × $65 = -$9.75K MRR/month
Net impact: +$75K - $9.75K = +$65K MRR (but accelerating churn problem)
Recommendation: Don't change. Fix retention first (reduce 5% churn), then raise prices.
Example 3: New Premium Tier
Scenario: Add $500/month premium tier
Current state:
- Top tier: $200/month (500 customers)
- ARPA: $200
Proposed change:
- New tier: $500/month with advanced features
- Expected adoption: 10% of current top tier (50 customers)
Impact:
- Upsell revenue: 50 × ($500 - $200) = +$15K MRR
- Cannibalization risk: Low (features justify premium)
- NRR impact: Increases from 105% to 110%
Recommendation: Implement. Creates expansion path, minimal cannibalization risk.
Common Pitfalls
Pitfall 1: Ignoring Churn Impact
Symptom: "We'll raise prices 30% and make $X more!" (no churn modeling)
Consequence: Churn wipes out revenue gains. Net impact negative.
Fix: Model churn scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic). Factor churn-driven revenue loss into net impact.
Pitfall 2: Not Grandfathering Existing Customers
Symptom: "We're raising prices for everyone effective immediately"
Consequence: Massive churn spike from existing customers who feel betrayed.
Fix: Grandfather existing customers. Raise prices for new customers only.
Pitfall 3: Testing Without Statistical Power
Symptom: "We tested on 10 customers and it worked!"
Consequence: 10 customers isn't statistically significant. Results are noise.
Fix: Test with large enough sample (100+ customers per cohort) for 60-90 days.
Pitfall 4: Pricing Changes Without Value Justification
Symptom: "We're raising prices because we need more revenue"
Consequence: Customers see price increase without corresponding value increase. Churn.
Fix: Tie price increases to value improvements (new features, better support, outcomes delivered).
Pitfall 5: Ignoring CAC Payback Impact
Symptom: "Higher ARPU is always better!"
Consequence: If conversion drops 30%, effective CAC increases dramatically. Payback period explodes.
Fix: Calculate CAC payback impact. Higher ARPU with lower conversion might make payback worse, not better.
Pitfall 6: Annual Discounts That Hurt Margin
Symptom: "30% discount for annual prepay!" (improves cash but destroys LTV)
Consequence: Customers lock in low prices for a year. Revenue per customer decreases.
Fix: Limit annual discounts to 10-15%. Balance cash flow improvement with LTV protection.
Pitfall 7: Copycat Pricing (Competitor-Based)
Symptom: "Competitor raised prices, so should we"
Consequence: Your customers, value prop, and cost structure are different. What works for them may not work for you.
Fix: Use competitors as data points, not decisions. Make pricing decisions based on your unit economics.
Pitfall 8: Premature Optimization
Symptom: "Let's A/B test 47 different price points!"
Consequence: Analysis paralysis. Spending months on 5% pricing optimizations while missing 50% growth opportunities elsewhere.
Fix: Big pricing changes (tiers, packaging, add-ons) matter more than micro-optimizations. Start there.
Pitfall 9: Forgetting Expansion Revenue
Symptom: "We're maximizing ARPU at acquisition"
Consequence: High upfront pricing prevents landing customers. Miss expansion opportunities.
Fix: Consider "land and expand" strategy. Lower entry price, higher expansion revenue via upsells.
Pitfall 10: No Pricing Change Communication Plan
Symptom: "We're raising prices next month" (no customer communication)
Consequence: Surprised customers churn. Poor reviews. Reputation damage.
Fix: Communicate pricing changes 30-60 days in advance. Emphasize value, not just price.
References
Related Skills
saas-revenue-growth-metrics— ARPU, ARPA, churn, NRR metrics used in pricing analysissaas-economics-efficiency-metrics— CAC payback impact of pricing changesfinance-metrics-quickref— Quick lookup for pricing-related formulasfeature-investment-advisor— Evaluates whether to build features that enable pricing changesbusiness-health-diagnostic— Broader business context for pricing decisions
External Frameworks (Comprehensive Pricing Strategy)
These are OUTSIDE the scope of this skill but relevant for broader pricing work:
- Value-Based Pricing — Price based on value delivered, not cost
- Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity — WTP research methodology
- Conjoint Analysis — Feature-to-price trade-off research
- Good-Better-Best Packaging — Tier architecture design
- Price Anchoring & Decoy Pricing — Psychological pricing tactics
- Patrick Campbell (ProfitWell): Pricing research and benchmarks
Future Skills (Comprehensive Pricing)
For topics NOT covered here, see future pricing-strategy-suite:
value-based-pricing-framework— How to price based on valuewillingness-to-pay-research— WTP research methodspackaging-architecture-advisor— Tier and bundle designpricing-psychology-guide— Anchoring, decoys, framingmonetization-model-advisor— Seat-based vs. usage vs. outcome pricing
Provenance
- Adapted from
research/finance/Finance_For_PMs.Putting_It_Together_Synthesis.md(Decision Framework #3) - Pricing scenarios from
research/finance/Finance for Product Managers.md