gabrielmoreira Idea Validator
What It Does
Turns raw ideas into testable hypotheses. Instead of falling in love with an idea and building it in a vacuum, this skill runs it through a validation gauntlet — surfacing assumptions, identifying risks, and designing the smallest possible test to learn whether the idea has legs before you commit significant resources.
The Validation Funnel
┌─────────────┐
│ RAW IDEA │
└──────┬──────┘
│
┌──────▼──────┐
│ CANVAS IT │ ← Problem, Solution, Audience, Channel
└──────┬──────┘
│
┌──────▼──────┐
│ CHECKLIST │ ← 20-point viability screen
└──────┬──────┘
│
┌──────▼──────┐
│ RISK MAP │ ← What could kill this?
└──────┬──────┘
│
┌──────▼──────┐
│ TEST DESIGN │ ← Smallest experiment that teaches most
└──────┬──────┘
│
┌──────▼──────┐
│ GO / PIVOT │
│ / KILL │
└─────────────┘
The 20-Point Validation Checklist
Rate each factor as ✅ Strong / ⚠️ Moderate / ❌ Weak
Problem & Need
- 1. Is this a real problem? Not a "nice to have" — would people pay to solve it?
- 2. Is the problem widespread? Does enough of your target audience have it?
- 3. Is the problem urgent? Are people actively searching for solutions right now?
- 4. Are people already trying to solve it? What workarounds exist?
- 5. Is the problem getting worse? Trend tailwinds?
Solution & Product
- 6. Can you solve this better than existing alternatives? 2-10× better?
- 7. Is there a clear "must-have" feature set? Or is the scope fuzzy?
- 8. Can you build a minimum version in < 4 weeks? Speed to test matters
- 9. Does the solution have a clear "why now?" Timing advantage?
- 10. Is it legally/ethically clear? Any regulatory risks?
Market & Audience
- 11. Can you name 20 real people who would buy this? Not "people like that"
- 12. Is there a clear, reachable channel to find them? SEO, ads, communities?
- 13. Is the market growing? Expanding, flat, or shrinking?
- 14. Is the market big enough? Can it support a sustainable business?
- 15. Is the competition healthy (not too crowded, not nonexistent)? No competition usually means no market
Business & You
- 16. Can this be profitable? Rough unit economics work?
- 17. Do you have unfair advantage? Why can't 10 others copy this tomorrow?
- 18. Will this be personally sustainable? Do you actually want to work on this for years?
- 19. Can you test this without quitting your day job? Low-risk validation path?
- 20. If this fails, what's the downside? Acceptable loss?
Score interpretation:
| Score | Action |
|---|---|
| 18-20 ✅ | Strong signal — proceed to test design |
| 12-17 ⚠️ | Mixed — address weak areas before investing |
| < 12 ❌ | High risk — kill or radically pivot |
Risk Map: The 5 Ways Ideas Die
| Risk | Description | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Solution Risk | You build the wrong thing | Talk to 10 customers before writing code |
| Market Risk | Nobody wants it | Get pre-orders or sign-ups before building |
| Execution Risk | You can't deliver | Audit your skills, time, and resources |
| Timing Risk | Too early or too late | Check search trends, competitor launches, industry shifts |
| Business Risk | Can't make money | Validate willingness to pay early — don't assume |
Lean Validation Experiments
Tier 1: Low Effort (Days)
| Experiment | What It Tests | How To Run | Success Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Fake Door | Interest | Landing page with "Coming Soon" + email signup | 5-10% conversion from visitors → email |
| The $5 Interview | Problem | Talk to 10 target customers about their pain | 7/10 confirm it's a real problem |
| Social Post | Demand | Post about the problem on LinkedIn/Reddit/Twitter | Engagement, DMs, "I need this" comments |
| Google Trends | Market trajectory | Check trend direction for related keywords | Upward or stable curve |
Tier 2: Medium Effort (Weeks)
| Experiment | What It Tests | How To Run | Success Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-sell / Landing Page | Willingness to pay | Landing page with "Buy Now" (actually collect payment or just gauge intent) | 1-3% conversion rate or 10+ pre-orders |
| Concierge MVP | Solution validity | Manually deliver the service for 3-5 beta customers | Customers get value and would pay |
| Waitlist | Demand volume | Collect email signups with a specific promise | 100+ signups from targeted outreach |
| Content Test | Content-driven demand | Write 3 articles about the problem. Track SEO/social traction | Organic traffic, subscribers, inquiries |
Tier 3: Higher Effort (Months)
| Experiment | What It Tests | How To Run | Success Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prototype MVP | Product usability | Build the smallest functional version for 10 beta users | NPS > 30, weekly active usage > 3× |
| Paid Pilot | Willingness to pay at full price | Sell to 1-3 customers at full price | Customers pay and don't churn |
| Crowdfunding / Pre-order | Market validation at scale | Kickstarter, Indiegogo, or direct pre-orders | Hits 30% of funding target in first week |
Trigger Phrases
| Phrase | Action |
|---|---|
| "Validate this idea..." | Full validation funnel: canvas → checklist → risk map → test |
| "Is this worth pursuing?" | Runs the 20-point checklist |
| "Test this idea..." | Designs the smallest meaningful experiment |
| "What could kill this idea?" | Risk map — identifies top 3 failure modes |
| "Should I build this?" | Pre-validation reality check |
| "Talk me out of this idea" | Devil's advocate — surfaces weakest assumptions |
| "How do I validate [X]?" | Specific experiment design for a specific risk |
| "Is this a good idea?" | Combined checklist + risk map + recommendation |
Step-by-Step Instructions
Step 1: Clarify the Idea
Get it into a single sentence:
"I want to build [solution] for [audience] who struggle with [problem], so they can [outcome]."
If you can't complete this sentence, the idea isn't clear enough yet.
Step 2: Surface Assumptions
List everything you're assuming to be true. Group into:
| Assumption Type | Examples |
|---|---|
| Problem | "People actually have this problem." "They know they have it." |
| Solution | "My solution solves it." "They'll use it." |
| Market | "There are enough people." "I can reach them." |
| Business | "They'll pay." "The economics work." |
| You | "I can build this." "I'll stay motivated." |
Key insight: The assumption that would hurt most if wrong is your riskiest assumption. Test that one first.
Step 3: Run the Checklist
Score all 20 items. Identify which areas score lowest — those are your focus areas for testing.
Step 4: Design the Experiment
Follow the experiment tier table above. Rules:
- Smallest test first: Start with Tier 1. Don't build anything until you've talked to customers.
- Define success criteria upfront: "I want 20 email signups from a $50 ad spend" — not "let's see what happens."
- Time-box: 1-2 weeks per test. If you can't get a signal in 2 weeks, the signal might be "no."
Step 5: Run, Measure, Decide
| Result | Decision |
|---|---|
| Strong positive signal | Proceed to next tier of testing |
| Mixed / unclear | Revise assumption, test again with a different method |
| Clear negative signal | Kill or pivot. Do not ignore. Sunk cost is not a reason to continue |
Step 6: Document Learnings
Even for ideas you kill, document what you learned. Future you will benefit from knowing:
- Which assumptions were wrong
- What customers actually said
- What the market signals showed
Examples
Example 1: Validating a Paid Newsletter Idea
Idea: "A paid newsletter teaching designers how to use AI tools"
Clarified: "I want to build a paid weekly newsletter for mid-career designers who struggle with keeping up with AI tools, so they can stay relevant without spending hours researching."
Riskiest Assumptions: 1) Designers are willing to pay for this. 2) I can consistently find valuable content.
Experiment (Tier 1):
- Post on LinkedIn/X: "Designers — what's your #1 question about AI tools?" (tests problem)
- If engagement is strong → create a free 5-email mini-series with a "Subscribe for full version" CTA (tests willingness to pay)
- Success signal: 1,000 free subscribers within 2 weeks
If < 100 signups: Problem not urgent enough or audience not reachable. Kill or narrow niche further. If 100-500: Interesting but weak. Try paid ads to test willingness to pay more directly. If 500+: Proceed. Build the paid tier.
Example 2: Validating a SaaS Tool
Idea: "A tool that auto-generates social media posts from blog content"
Risk Map:
- Solution Risk (HIGH): Will the output be good enough to use without heavy editing?
- Market Risk (MEDIUM): Do content creators feel this pain enough to pay?
- Execution Risk (LOW): Buildable with existing AI APIs
Experiment (Tier 1):
- Build a manual concierge: Offer to take 5 bloggers' posts and manually create their social content for free
- Ask: "If this were automated, what would you pay?"
- Success signal: 3/5 say "I'd pay $20+/month"
Learning: If users love the output but won't pay, pivot to free + ads. If they won't use the output even for free, solution risk is confirmed — kill or redesign.
Pro Tips
- Validation is not about proving you're right — it's about learning the truth as cheaply as possible. If you're trying to prove your idea works, you're doing it wrong.
- Nobody cares about your idea as much as you do. The first 10 conversations will be polite. Push past politeness — ask "Would you pay for this?" directly. If they hesitate, that's data.
- A "maybe" is a "no". In validation, ambiguous responses usually mean no. People who really want something will show clear enthusiasm.
- Kill early, kill often. The best entrepreneurs don't have the best ideas — they kill bad ideas fastest. A dead idea is tuition paid for the next one.
- Validation never ends. Even after launch, every feature, pricing change, and channel is a new hypothesis to test. Build validation into your workflow, not as a one-time event.