gabrielmoreira Metric Tree Builder Skill
A north-star metric you can't decompose is a number you can't move. This skill breaks it into the multiplicative/additive drivers beneath it, down to metrics a team can actually act on — and points at the highest-leverage levers.
Working from a brief
Given a top metric and a rough business model, build the full tree anyway, inferring the standard driver structure for that model and marking assumptions. Never stop at one level; push down to input metrics someone owns.
Required Inputs
Ask for (if not already provided):
- The north-star / top metric (e.g. weekly active revenue, MRR, GMV, activated users)
- Business model (subscription, marketplace, ads, transactional, freemium)
- Where the team can act (which teams own which surfaces)
- Current pain (the metric is flat / dropping — optional, focuses the tree)
Output Format
1. The decomposition
Express the top metric as an equation of its drivers, e.g.:
Revenue = New customers × Avg first order + Retained customers × Repeat rate × AOV
Then break each driver down a level or two, until you reach input metrics a team can directly influence (e.g. signup conversion, activation rate, email open→click, time-to-value).
Show it as an indented tree or a table:
| Level | Metric | Driven by | Owner / lever |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | North star | — | |
| 1 | Driver | sub-inputs | |
| 2 | Input metric | actions | team |
2. Relationships
Note where drivers are multiplicative (a small % gain compounds) vs additive, and any that trade off against each other.
3. Highest-leverage levers
The 2–3 input metrics where a realistic improvement moves the north star most — and why (sensitivity × how movable it is).
4. Instrumentation gaps
Which input metrics aren't being measured yet but should be, to make the tree usable.
5. The tree, drawn
Also render the decomposition as a Mermaid flowchart so the structure is visible at a glance (it renders live in the playground and exports as PNG/SVG). North star at the top, drivers below, input metrics as leaves; keep labels short.
flowchart TD
NS[North star] --> D1[Driver A]
NS --> D2[Driver B]
D1 --> I1[Input metric]
D1 --> I2[Input metric]
D2 --> I3[Input metric]
Quality Checks
- The top metric is expressed as an actual equation of its drivers
- The tree bottoms out in input metrics a team can act on, not more outputs
- Multiplicative vs additive relationships are noted
- Identifies the highest-leverage levers with reasoning
- Flags metrics that need to be instrumented
Anti-Patterns
- A "tree" that's just a flat list of unrelated KPIs
- Stopping at output metrics no one can directly move
- Ignoring how drivers combine (treating everything as additive)
- No view on which lever actually matters most