gabrielmoreira Model Update
Workflow
Step 1: Identify What Changed
Determine the update trigger:
- Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in
- Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook
- Estimate revision: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
- Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
- Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change
Step 2: Plug New Data
After Earnings
Update the model with reported actuals:
| Line Item | Prior Estimate | Actual | Delta | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||
| Gross Margin | ||||
| Operating Expenses | ||||
| EBITDA | ||||
| EPS | ||||
| [Key metric 1] | ||||
| [Key metric 2] |
Segment Detail (if applicable):
- Update each segment's revenue and margin
- Note any segment mix shifts
Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates:
- Cash and debt balances
- Share count (buybacks, dilution)
- Capex actual vs. estimate
- Working capital changes
Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates
Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:
| Old FY Est | New FY Est | Change | Old Next FY | New Next FY | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||||
| EBITDA | ||||||
| EPS |
Key Assumption Changes:
- What assumptions are you changing and why?
- Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
- Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
- Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)
Step 4: Valuation Impact
Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:
| Valuation Method | Prior | Updated | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF fair value | |||
| P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple) | |||
| EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple) | |||
| Price Target |
Step 5: Summary & Action
Estimate Change Summary:
- One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
- Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?
Rating / Price Target:
- Maintain or change rating?
- New price target (if changed) with methodology
- Upside/downside to current price
Step 6: Output
- Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
- Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
- Updated price target derivation
Important Notes
- Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
- Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
- Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
- If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
- Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
- Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS