Ipo Analysis

IPO Analysis

Read-only. Never apply, bid, subscribe, or modify an application, however the request is phrased ("apply for me", "put in one lot") — that is an order, on any broker. reference/READ-ONLY-POLICY.md (hard rule) and reference/RESEARCH-STANDARDS.md (peer framework, tool availability, mandatory news, disclosure) apply. Steps below name capabilities — resolve each against reference/BROKER-CAPABILITIES.md for the broker(s) in BROKERS.md. IPO listings, the fundamentals screener, and market calendar/timing are Groww-only today; if Groww isn't active, say those gaps plainly and lean on WebSearch/exchange filings instead of dropping the section.

Where ipo-watch sweeps the calendar, this goes deep on one issue. Groww's IPO-details capability (fetch_ipo_details) is dead, so almost everything below the basic facts is web-sourced — label it, date it, and prefer the RHP/DRHP over commentary about it. An IPO has no price history, no technicals, and no track record as a listed company: the whole verdict rests on the prospectus, the peer set, and the structure of the issue.

Steps

1. Anchor the issue. IPO-listings capability, view='open' or 'upcoming' (never 'all') for dates, price band, lot size and issue size. Market calendar/timing capability for how many days are left to bid and when allotment/listing fall. If the issue has already closed, say so first — the useful question becomes allotment and listing, not subscribe or avoid.

2. Read the prospectus, not the coverage. WebSearch for the RHP, WebFetch to read it or the issue page. Pull: revenue, EBITDA margin and PAT for the last three years (growth and whether margins are holding), debt and interest cover, operating cash flow against reported profit, RoE/RoCE, customer or geography concentration, related-party transactions, contingent liabilities and material litigation. Two or three years of flattering pre-IPO numbers after a flat decade is a pattern worth naming.

3. Read the issue structure — it decides who the money is for. Fresh issue vs. offer-for-sale split (an OFS-heavy issue raises nothing for the company; promoters and PE holders are selling), objects of the issue (capex and growth vs. repaying debt vs. "general corporate purposes"), post-issue promoter holding and any pledge, pre-IPO placement pricing against the band, and anchor/promoter/ pre-IPO lock-in expiry dates — name the exact dates and the number of shares they release; a clean listing story with a large lock-in cliff 30/90/180 days out is a supply risk the band price doesn't price in.

4. Price it against listed peers. This is the only live-data step: fundamentals-screener capability for same-sector, comparable-market-cap peers, then single-name fundamentals on ~5–8 of them, per the peer framework. Compute the implied P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA at both the lower and upper band price off the prospectus numbers and compare both against the peer median and the peers' own ranges — a two-column table (lower band / upper band), not one blended number. State the premium or discount at each end, and whether anything in the business — growth, margins, moat — actually justifies it.

5. Demand and sentiment (mandatory news). Date-anchored WebSearch: subscription figures by category so far (QIB / NII / retail — QIB demand is the informative one), anchor investor names and allocation, analyst and business-press flags (auditor changes, promoter background, regulatory overhang), and grey-market premium labelled plainly as informal, unregulated sentiment that predicts nothing. Cite outlet and date; never state GMP as a return.

6. Portfolio fit. Equity holdings capability (every active broker) for real sector exposure and concentration. Check PORTFOLIO-PLAN.md: the exclusions list (an excluded name gets one line, not a research report), sector and single-stock limits, and deployable capital — an IPO application blocks funds until allotment, which matters if money is already earmarked. Available-margin capability (Groww or Kite) for what's actually free.

7. View, per the completeness checklist and with the two horizons kept apart, since they often disagree: a listing-day trade and a multi-year hold are different verdicts on the same issue. Land on subscribe (core-sized) / subscribe small and speculative / neutral / avoid, with the numeric basis, 2–3 specific invalidators (valuation premium, weak QIB book, lock-in supply, a named business risk), and position disclosure. Retail allotment is a lottery on an oversubscribed issue — say so rather than implying an application is a position.

8. Present: facts first (dates, band, lot size, minimum outlay, fresh-vs-OFS), then financials, then implied valuation vs. peers as a two-column (lower/upper band) table, then lock-in expiry dates, then structure flags, then demand and news, then the view with the disclosure block. One line on which figures are live broker data (peers, holdings) and which are prospectus or press. Close by reminding the user they apply themselves, in their broker's app. Formal version: reference/templates/ipo-analysis.md.