Rate Watch

Rate Watch

Read-only, and always tied back to what the user holds — not a generic economics note. reference/READ-ONLY-POLICY.md (hard rule) and reference/RESEARCH-STANDARDS.md (freshness, RBI primary sources, disclosure when a positioning view is given) apply. Works over whichever broker(s) BROKERS.md names active — resolve any capability against reference/BROKER-CAPABILITIES.md.

Steps

1. Rate picture now. Date-anchored WebSearch, preferring primary sources (RBI policy statements, CPI prints) over commentary — repo rate, latest MPC decision and stance, next MPC date; G-Sec yields at 1Y/5Y/10Y and the curve's move since last policy; latest CPI vs. RBI's band. Budget-announcement capability (Groww-only) in budget season, since borrowing numbers move yields. Two or three searches is enough.

2. The user's exposure. Debt funds from PORTFOLIO-PLAN.md (unless INDmoney is active and covers them — see BROKER-CAPABILITIES.md), with duration category per fund (liquid/short/gilt/long) — longer duration, bigger NAV swing per rate move; state direction and rough sensitivity. Direct bonds and FDs from PORTFOLIO-PLAN.md's fixed-income inventory — locked rates vs. today's, and what matures into this environment (coordinate with bond-ladder-planner).

3. Translate, don't just report. A falling-rate outlook means existing long-duration holdings gain while locking today's yields on new money gets less attractive over time, and vice versa. Frame as scenario reasoning, never a rate prediction stated as fact: say what the market and RBI signal, cite it, show both branches where genuinely uncertain. Flag the concrete timing questions it raises — "FD maturing next month into likely-lower rates", "the gilt fund now carries most of the duration you'd want before cuts".

4. Present: a short "rate picture now" block (repo, stance, 10Y, CPI, next MPC — sourced and dated), then per-holding implications, then any positioning view with the disclosure block. Briefing-length; deep instrument work goes to bond-analysis / bond-ladder-planner. Formal version: reference/templates/rate-watch.md.