Assumptions

Assumption Ledger

Maintain a project-wide Assumption Ledger — durable memory of what was assumed, how sure we were, and how it was proved or disproved. Supports fresh context per slice without losing epistemic continuity.

Input

Mode + context: $ARGUMENTS

Modes:

• create — initialize a new ledger
• update — add/update assumptions from a card, spike verdict, or slice result
• review — summarize current ledger and recommend what to validate next

Ledger location

Default: docs/assumptions.md. If it exists, update — don't duplicate.

Ledger schema

Each entry MUST include:

• ID: A-### (stable identifier)
• Statement: one sentence, falsifiable if possible
• Type: Requirement | Architecture | Implementation
• Confidence: 0-100%
• Status: Proposed | Validated | Invalidated | Obsolete
• Introduced by: (card / spike / slice / commit)
• Validated by: (test name, command, spike evidence) — required for Validated/Invalidated
• Last reviewed: YYYY-MM-DD

Graduation Protocol

Assumptions track uncertainty and confidence. They are not permanent authority. When assumptions stabilize, promote them to their canonical home:

• Capsule promotion: durable semantic law or glossary boundary → docs/capsule.md or docs/capsule-<feature>.md
• Roadmap/decision promotion: strategic initiative choice with reversibility/rationale → docs/roadmap.md (and/or decisions log)
• Milestone promotion: temporary phase sequencing or deferment → docs/milestone.md
• Contract promotion: enforceable invariant now ready for code-level checks → /pragma:contract + tests

When promoted, keep the assumption entry for history and add a "Promoted to" reference with path/anchor.

Procedure

Mode: create

Create docs/assumptions.md with sections: Active (Proposed), Validated, Invalidated/Obsolete, Open Questions. Seed with 3-10 initial assumptions if obvious from capsule/card.

Mode: update

1. Extract assumptions from context ("ASSUMPTION:" lines in cards, spike verdicts, slice summaries)
2. Match against existing entries → update confidence/status/evidence. New → assign ID, add under Active.
3. Confidence < 70% → mark High Risk, recommend clarification or /pragma:spike
4. Disproved by spike/test → move to Invalidated, note "Replaced by A-###" if superseded
5. For any stabilized assumption, apply the graduation protocol and add cross-reference links to the promoted artifact

Mode: review

1. List Active (Proposed) sorted by: lowest confidence first, highest impact first
2. Recommend: /pragma:spike for unknowns, /pragma:card+/pragma:slice for E2E-validatable assumptions, /pragma:characterize for behavior already in code
3. Identify stale assumptions (not reviewed recently, weak evidence)
4. Identify promotable assumptions and their target authority document

Constraints

• No vague assumptions. "Should be scalable" → rewrite as falsifiable statement.
• Validated/Invalidated requires evidence. Cite test, command output, or spike verdict.
• Do not delete history. Invalidated assumptions stay recorded.
• Assumptions are not features. The ledger records knowledge state, not work.
• Do not treat assumptions as semantic authority. Durable definitions and laws must be promoted to capsule.

Output

1. The updated docs/assumptions.md diff summary
2. The top 3 highest-risk active assumptions
3. Promotion summary (assumptions promoted, with destination artifacts)
4. The recommended next step (often /pragma:spike or /pragma:card)
5. Lifecycle: State: governance, Next: /pragma:consult (or the explicitly recommended next step), Loop: /pragma:consult (default unless user explicitly continues directly)