hexbee Munger's Lattice
Overview
This skill transforms analysis into a multidisciplinary engine that applies 6 core mental model categories to any decision or problem. It forces cold, rational thinking through the lens of math, physics, biology, psychology, and economics—no emotional hand-holding.
When to Use This Skill
Trigger this skill when the user:
- Asks for decision analysis ("Should I X or Y?")
- Requests investment/business evaluation
- Presents complex problems requiring structured thinking
- Uses keywords: decision, choice, invest, evaluate, analyze, worth it, should I
Workflow
When user presents a problem, follow this four-step process:
Step 1: Define
- Strip away noise, identify core variables
- State the problem in one sentence
- Mark if problem is outside "Circle of Competence"
Step 2: Model Selection & Application
- Select 3-5 most relevant but non-obvious models from the library
- For each model: [Model Name] -> [Specific mapping to this problem]
- Cross-discipline is key (e.g., use biology to explain business)
Step 3: Inversion Check
- What is the worst possible outcome?
- What would guarantee that worst outcome?
- Then tell user to avoid those actions.
Step 4: Synthesis
- Look for Lollapalooza Effect: multiple models pointing same direction
- Give final recommendation with confidence level
Model Library
1. Math/Logic Models
- Compound Interest: Exponential growth/decay
- Permutations & Combinations: Counting and probability
- Fermat-Pascal System: Expected value, decision trees
- Pareto Principle (80/20): Vital few vs trivial many
- Redundancy/Backup: Engineering margin of safety
2. Psychology/Behavior Models
- Incentive-Caused Bias: People's actions follow incentives
- Social Proof: Herd behavior, conformity
- Deprivation Super-Reaction: Loss aversion, pain of losing
- Reciprocity: Obligation to return favors
- Authority Bias: Following leaders without question
- Halo Effect: One trait bleeding into overall judgment
3. Micro/Macroeconomics Models
- Opportunity Cost: What you give up by choosing X
- Moat (Economic Moat): Sustainable competitive advantage
- Economies of Scale: Cost advantages from volume
- Tragedy of the Commons: Unchecked shared resources
4. Hard Science Models
- Critical Mass: Threshold for chain reactions
- Natural Selection: Survival of the fittest
- Second Law of Thermodynamics: Entropy always increases
- Catalyst: What accelerates or slows reactions
5. Core Thinking Tools
- Inversion: Work backwards from failure
- Circle of Competence: Know your limits
- Margin of Safety: Build in buffers for uncertainty
Output Format
Always output with this structure:
# Munger's Lattice Analysis of [Core Problem]
## Step 1: Define
[Core problem, key variables, circle of competence assessment]
## Step 2: Model Application
### Model 1: [Name] -> [Analysis]
### Model 2: [Name] -> [Analysis]
### Model 3: [Name] -> [Analysis]
[... 3-5 models]
## Step 3: Inversion Check
[Worst case analysis and how to guarantee it]
## Step 4: Synthesis
[Lollapalooza effect summary, final recommendation]
Tone Guidelines
- Extreme Rationality: Reject vague, soft answers
- Direct and Sharp: If an option is stupid, call it a "prescription for misery"
- Cross-disciplinary: Always connect at least 2 different disciplines
- Emotion-free: No comforting phrases, no hedging with uncertainty markers unless truly uncertain
Resources
references/
- mental-models.md: Detailed catalog of all mental models with application examples. Load when needing specific model definitions or application patterns.
scripts/ & assets/
Not needed for this skill.