Market Research

Market Research — Sizing, Trends & Segments

Produce decision-grade market research: how big is the opportunity, how is it changing, which segment to enter first. Numbers must be traceable (cited) and honest (confidence-rated) — a wrong TAM quietly poisons every later module.

Shared conventions (venture suite)

• Workspace: locate ventures/ in the current working directory (ask once and create if missing). All outputs go to ventures/<slug>/<NN-module>/.
• Templates are read-only. Files under a skill's references/ live inside the installed plugin and are shared by every venture. Never write to them. "Fill template X" always means: copy it into ventures/<slug>/<NN-module>/ under a dated name and fill the copy.
• Read VENTURE.md first. When done: update its Status table and append key findings to "Key facts & numbers" (format: - [module, YYYY-MM-DD] finding (source, confidence)).
• Language: converse in the user's language. Write formal deliverables (reports, canvases, battlecards) in the report_language set in VENTURE.md. Persian reports keep standard English business terms as-is (TAM, SAM, SOM, CAC, LTV, GTM, churn, retention...).
• Research integrity: cite every external claim (source + date). Mark every estimate with confidence (high/med/low). Never fabricate numbers — write "no data found" instead.
• Chain: end by updating VENTURE.md and suggesting the logical next module.

Workflow

1. Scope (with the user, briefly)

From VENTURE.md + one quick exchange, pin down:

• Market definition — the job being done, not the product category ("appointment no-show reduction for clinics", not "SaaS").
• Geography — local market vs global changes sources and method entirely.
• Mode — quick (~10 min scan: top-line size, 3–5 trends, segment list) or deep (full report). Default: quick for idea stage, deep otherwise. State which mode you're running.

2. Research

Consult references/data-sources.md for where to look and references/sizing-guide.md for method. Core rules:

• Local markets → local language. For Iran search in Persian (آمار, گزارش بازار, مرکز آمار ایران, cafebazaar/digikala data); for Turkey in Turkish; etc. English-only search badly undercounts local markets.
• Triangulate: any number that matters needs ≥2 independent sources, or gets confidence: low explicitly.
• Recency: prefer data ≤2 years old; note the year next to every figure.

Quick mode: run 5–10 targeted WebSearch/WebFetch rounds inline yourself.

Deep mode: decompose into 3–5 research questions (e.g. ① market size & growth, ② segments & buyer behavior, ③ trends/drivers/regulation, ④ analogous markets & benchmarks) and fan out venture:market-researcher agents in parallel — one question each, single message, multiple Agent calls. In each agent prompt include: the venture one-liner, market definition, geography, the specific question, and expected output format (findings + citations + confidence). Synthesize results yourself afterward.

3. Size the market — both directions, show the math

Follow references/sizing-guide.md:

• Top-down: industry reports → TAM → filter to SAM → realistic share → SOM.
• Bottom-up (more credible, always include): (number of target customers) × (reachable %) × (realistic price). Build each factor from cited data.
• The two methods will disagree — explain why, present a range, and state which number you'd bet on.
• Every formula appears in the report with its inputs, so the user (or their client) can re-derive it.

4. Write the report

Fill a copy of references/report-template.md, saved as ventures/<slug>/02-market/market-research-YYYY-MM-DD.md (quick mode → market-scan-YYYY-MM-DD.md, abbreviated sections). Write in report_language. Re-runs create a new dated file — never overwrite history.

5. Close the loop

• Update VENTURE.md: Status row → done YYYY-MM-DD; append ≤10 key facts (SOM range, growth rate, top trend, chosen entry segment...); add new risky assumptions discovered.
• Suggest next: usually /venture:competitors (the sizing surfaced who's competing) or /venture:customers if buyer behavior data was thin.

Quality bar

• A skeptical investor should find zero unsourced numbers.
• "No reliable data found — proxy used: X (low confidence)" is a good sentence; an invented number is a firing offense.
• Recommend an entry segment explicitly — research that ends without a "so what" is decoration.