Pmf

PMF Assessment — Measure, Score, Decide

Answer the scariest question honestly: does anyone need this enough? Two jobs depending on what exists: design measurement (no data yet) or assess and decide (data exists). The output is a decision aid — strong/weak/no fit, why, and what to do about it.

Shared conventions (venture suite)

• Workspace: locate ventures/ in the current working directory (ask once and create if missing). All outputs go to ventures/<slug>/<NN-module>/.
• Templates are read-only. Files under a skill's references/ live inside the installed plugin and are shared by every venture. Never write to them. "Fill template X" always means: copy it into ventures/<slug>/<NN-module>/ under a dated name and fill the copy.
• Read VENTURE.md first. When done: update its Status table and append key findings to "Key facts & numbers" (format: - [module, YYYY-MM-DD] finding (source, confidence)).
• Language: converse in the user's language. Write formal deliverables (reports, canvases, battlecards) in the report_language set in VENTURE.md. Persian reports keep standard English business terms as-is (TAM, SAM, SOM, CAC, LTV, GTM, churn, retention...).
• Research integrity: cite every external claim (source + date). Mark every estimate with confidence (high/med/low). Never fabricate numbers — write "no data found" instead.
• Chain: end by updating VENTURE.md and suggesting the logical next module.

Workflow

1. Establish what data exists

Ask the user what they have (don't assume): user counts, retention by cohort, usage frequency, churn, NPS, Sean Ellis survey results, revenue/renewals, qualitative feedback, support logs. Also read 01-discovery/ and "Key facts" for prior signals.

• Little/no data, or pre-launch → Mode A: design measurement.
• Real usage data → Mode B: assess.

2A. Mode A — Design the measurement plan

Produce 04-pmf/pmf-measurement-plan-YYYY-MM-DD.md containing:

• Sean Ellis survey customized to the product from references/sean-ellis-survey.md (translated to the users' language — survey language = customers' language, regardless of report language), with delivery and sampling instructions (who to ask: people who used the product ≥2× recently; minimum n≈30–40).
• Instrumentation shortlist: the 3–5 metrics worth tracking for this business type (from references/signal-benchmarks.md) and how to capture them cheaply.
• Decision date: when to come back and run Mode B.

Pre-launch with zero users → say plainly that PMF can't be measured yet and route to /venture:customers (problem validation comes first).

2B. Mode B — Assess

1. Score the scorecard — copy references/pmf-scorecard.md to 04-pmf/pmf-scorecard-YYYY-MM-DD.md and fill the copy, using references/signal-benchmarks.md for thresholds by business type (B2B SaaS retention ≠ consumer app retention). Every cell: value, benchmark, verdict, confidence. Missing metric → "not measured" (that's signal too).
2. Read the qualitative texture: what do the most-retained users have in common (segment, use case)? Sean Ellis "very disappointed" users — who are they? Pull quotes.
3. Stress-test before verdict — mandatory: launch the venture:devils-advocate agent with the draft scorecard + your tentative verdict. Prompt it to attack: data quality, survivorship bias, vanity metrics, segment-mixing, wishful benchmarks. Address every objection in the report (accept, rebut with evidence, or downgrade confidence).
4. Verdict & diagnosis in 04-pmf/pmf-assessment-YYYY-MM-DD.md:
   • Strong fit → protect it: identify the fit segment precisely, route to /venture:gtm to pour fuel.
   • Weak/partial fit → diagnose the gap with this ladder, in order (each step cheaper to fix than the next): ① wrong segment being acquired → retarget; ② right segment, wrong value prop/messaging → reposition; ③ right promise, product under-delivers → fix activation/core loop; ④ problem isn't painful enough → pivot territory. Recommend the specific experiment to confirm the diagnosis.
   • No fit → say it kindly but plainly; recommend pivot directions grounded in any positive signal found (who did retain?), or a structured stop. Route to /venture:review for the kill/pivot call.

3. Close the loop

Update VENTURE.md (Status, key facts: PMF score + verdict + fit segment; riskiest assumptions revised). If verdict is weak/none, mark GTM module stale if it exists — scaling plans built on weak PMF are invalid.

Quality bar

• Never inflate. The user's hopes are not data. A kind, evidenced "not yet" saves them months.
• Benchmarks must match business type AND geography reality (emerging-market consumer benchmarks differ; note it).
• Retention curve flattening > any single number. NPS alone is never sufficient evidence.