human-avatar Decision Premortem Analysis
Once a direction is chosen, commitment bias makes honest risk assessment nearly impossible — the mind starts defending the decision rather than evaluating it. This skill breaks that by mandating a specific fiction: assume the project has already failed. Then ask why. The pessimism is not optional — it is the mechanism.
Your Process
Step 1: State the Decision and Intended Outcome Write the decision clearly and the specific outcome it is supposed to produce. Include the timeline and the measurable definition of success.
Framing check: Confirm the specific decision before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual decision being stress-tested and its intended outcome — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:
- Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the decision and its intended outcome]. Is that right?"
- Header: "Framing"
- Options:
- Yes — proceed — framing is correct
- Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
- Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding
Step 2: Project to Failure Enter the failure frame. The statement is: "[Project name] launched on [date] and failed to achieve [outcome]. Here is what went wrong." Write this as if reporting a post-mortem, not brainstorming risks. The past-tense fiction reduces defensive filtering.
Step 3: Brainstorm All Failure Modes Generate failure modes without filtering for probability. Encourage pessimism. For each failure mode, ask: how would this actually unfold? What would be the first sign? What would make it worse?
Step 4: Group Failures by Type
- Execution failures: we had the right model of the world but did it wrong — timing, resourcing, coordination, quality.
- Assumption failures: we did it right but our model of the world was wrong — the market, the users, the technology, the dependencies.
- Unknown failures: we didn't anticipate this category of problem at all.
Step 5: Pre-emptive Action per Top Failure Mode
Before narrowing: Show the complete generated set to the user first. Use AskUserQuestion:
- Question: "I've identified [N] failure modes. Before I select the most significant by probability × severity, are there any you'd flag as especially important, or any I've missed?"
- Header: "Prioritise"
- Options:
- Proceed with your selection — the set looks right
- Flag one — user will name a specific failure mode to include
- Add a missing one — user will describe it
Identify the 3-5 most significant failure modes (highest probability × severity). For each: what single action, taken now, most reduces the probability or severity of this failure?
Human Check-in
Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:
- Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
- Header: "Scope"
- Options:
- Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
- Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
- Top 3 failure modes only — Highest probability × severity combinations, skip the full inventory
- Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing
Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.
Output Format
Decision and intended outcome:
[Statement + timeline + measurable success definition]
Failure modes (all generated):
| Failure mode | Type (Execution / Assumption / Unknown) | Probability | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|
Top 3-5 failure modes with pre-emptive actions:
| Failure mode | Why it's significant | Pre-emptive action |
|---|---|---|
Assumption inventory (things that must be true for this to work):
[Bulleted list — these are the highest-leverage unknowns to validate early]
Notes
Assumption failures are the most dangerous category because they are invisible until something breaks. The pre-mortem's most durable output is often the assumption inventory — which assumptions, if wrong, would make the entire direction invalid?
What's Next
After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:
- Question: "Failure modes mapped. What's next?"
- Header: "Next"
- Options:
/s4h-constraint-workaround-mapping— Address the top failure modes with concrete workarounds/s4h-decision-criteria-weighting— Revise decision criteria based on failure mode findings/s4h-strategy-positioning— Adapt strategy to reduce the probability of the worst failures- Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far