human-avatar Systems Feedback Mapping
Most system failures come from unrecognized feedback loops — especially delayed balancing loops that cause overshoot and collapse. Reinforcing loops amplify change in one direction; balancing loops push back toward a target. Until both types are visible and named, diagnosis and intervention are guesswork.
Your Process
Step 1: Define System Boundary State what is inside the system and what is outside it. Name the time horizon and the key behavior to explain (growth, oscillation, collapse, stagnation).
Framing check: Confirm the specific system and the feedback relationship in focus before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual system being analyzed, its time horizon, and the behavior you're mapping — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:
- Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the system, time horizon, and behavior to explain]. Is that right?"
- Header: "Framing"
- Options:
- Yes — proceed — framing is correct
- Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
- Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding
Step 2: List Key Variables Identify 5–10 variables that change over time and drive the behavior in question. These are stocks (levels that accumulate) or flows (rates of change). Be specific — "customer trust" not "sentiment".
Before narrowing: Show the complete generated set of candidate variables to the user first. Use AskUserQuestion:
- Question: "I've identified [N] candidate variables. Before I narrow to the 5–10 most relevant for mapping feedback loops, are there any you'd flag as especially important, or any I've missed?"
- Header: "Prioritise"
- Options:
- Proceed with your selection — the set looks right
- Flag one — user will name a specific variable to include
- Add a missing one — user will describe it
Step 3: Map Causal Links For each variable pair where a relationship exists: does A increasing cause B to increase (same direction, +) or decrease (opposite direction, −)? Mark the polarity of each link.
Step 4: Trace Loops Follow causal chains until they close back on themselves. Count the number of negative (−) links in the loop. Even number of negatives = reinforcing loop (R). Odd number = balancing loop (B). Name each loop.
Step 5: Mark Delays Identify where cause is separated from effect in time. Delays are the primary source of oscillation and overshoot — a balancing loop with a long delay will overcorrect.
Step 6: Identify the Dominant Loop Which loop is currently driving system behavior? The dominant loop changes as conditions change — map the transition conditions.
Human Check-in
Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:
- Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
- Header: "Scope"
- Options:
- Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
- Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
- Reinforcing loops only — What's accelerating in this system, skip balancing loops
- Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing
Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.
Output Format
System Boundary: [scope + time horizon + behavior to explain]
Feedback Loop Table
| Loop Name | Type (R/B) | Variables in Loop | Delay? | Current Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dominant Loop: [name] — [what behavior it produces]
Delay Risks: [which delays are creating overshoot or oscillation]
What This Predicts: [expected system behavior if current structure holds]
Notes
Loops are not permanent — the dominant loop shifts as variables hit limits or thresholds. Map the transition condition that would shift dominance from one loop to another.
What's Next
After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:
- Question: "Feedback loops mapped. What's next?"
- Header: "Next"
- Options:
/s4h-systems-leverage-analysis— Find leverage points within the feedback loops/s4h-temporal-cycle-detection— Detect cycles the feedback loops create/s4h-strategy-positioning— Position to exploit or break the key feedback loops- Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far