Assumption Testing

Assumption Testing Workflow

OBJECTIVE: Validate or invalidate key assumptions using INDEPENDENT data sources.

Step 1: Extract Assumptions

Identify both explicit and implicit assumptions:

• Growth rate assumptions ("revenue will grow X%")
• Market assumptions ("sector will outperform")
• Competitive assumptions ("moat is sustainable")
• Valuation assumptions ("multiple will expand")
• Macro assumptions ("economy stays strong")

Step 2: Test Each Assumption

For each assumption:

• What evidence supports it?
• What evidence contradicts it?
• What would invalidate it?

Use your independent tools:

• fetch_yfinance_news for current stats vs assumed (actual PE, EPS, growth rates)
• search_web_exa for competitive dynamics, industry trends, analyst consensus

CRITICAL: Compare what the thesis ASSUMES against what your INDEPENDENT sources show. The research used Alpha Vantage data — you are cross-checking with different sources.

Step 3: Sensitivity Analysis

If assumption is wrong, what happens to thesis?

• Thesis still valid? (robust assumption)
• Thesis weakened? (sensitive assumption)
• Thesis invalidated? (critical assumption)

Output Format

ASSUMPTION TEST: [SYMBOL]

CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS (thesis depends on these):

1. Assumption: [Statement] Supporting Evidence: [Independent data] Contradicting Evidence: [Independent data] If Wrong: [Impact on thesis] Verdict: [SOLID/QUESTIONABLE/WEAK]

SENSITIVE ASSUMPTIONS (would weaken thesis if wrong): [Same format]

ROBUST ASSUMPTIONS (thesis valid even if wrong): [Same format]

WEAKEST LINK: [Most questionable critical assumption]