Practitioner Heuristics

Practitioner Heuristic Overlay

This skill adds the second risk lens alongside ES. It does two things:

1. enforce hard gates before advisory discussion
2. provide the heuristic context needed to sequence corrective actions

It should not replace the quantitative engine. ES remains binding.

Architecture

Hard gates

These gates block action classes:

Advisory layers

These shape posture and the corrective path:

• ruin scenarios
• barbell posture
• regime concentration
• market temperature
• concentrated-position valuation context

Mapping Tables

Liquidity tier classification

Barbell classification

Convex instrument menu

Treat this as governed input to market-intel-direct.rank_convex_candidates, not as an auto-prescription list.

Approved ranking universe:

• GLDM, IAU
• DBMF, KMLM
• CAOS
• TLT when regime-appropriate
• SPY put-spread templates when options capability permits

Avoid:

• VXX, VIXY
• TAIL
• CYA
• buffer ETFs presented as convex substitutes

Execution Workflow

Step 1: Run hard gates first

ES gate

• If portfolio-analytics.analyze_portfolio_risk returns status == "critical" or the illiquid overlay pushes adjusted ES above 2.5%, fail the gate.

Illiquidity gate

• Use finance-graph.get_net_worth plus Ghostfolio liquid net worth.
• If illiquid share of household net worth is above 25%, fail the gate.

Employer concentration gate

• Use equity_comp accounts plus any same-ticker holdings elsewhere.
• If employer-linked liquid exposure exceeds 15%, fail the gate.

When a hard gate fails, say so plainly before advisory layers.

Step 2: Run advisory layers

Ruin scenario

• Run portfolio-analytics.compute_ruin_scenario
• Show the full stress table, not only one scenario

Barbell posture

• Run portfolio-analytics.classify_barbell_buckets
• Report:
  • hyper-safe %
  • convex %
  • fragile-middle %
  • safe gap
  • convex gap
  • fragile excess

When convex is short, feed the gap into market-intel-direct.rank_convex_candidates.

Regime map

• Use the regime table plus macro inputs from market-intel-direct.get_fred_series
• Flag material underexposure to key regimes

Market temperature

• Run market-intel-direct.get_shiller_cape
• Run market-intel-direct.compute_market_temperature
• Only present a full score when status == "complete"
• If temperature is incomplete, report the missing components, not a faux-complete score

Concentrated-position valuation context

• Use sec-edgar and market-intel-direct.get_symbol_history for the top concentrated non-index names
• If data is unavailable, report the gap

Corrective-Action Guidance

This skill should not stop at flagging a barbell problem.

When these thresholds breach:

• hyper-safe below 15%
• convex below 10%
• fragile-middle above 70%

the output should say what the gap means and pass the notional gap to the rebalance workflow.

Convex guidance rules:

• TLT is conditional, not default
• inflationary or stagflationary setups should usually favor gold / managed futures / tail-risk implementations over pure duration convexity
• deflationary or recessionary setups may favor TLT and options-based hedges more heavily
• no convex instrument should be recommended only because it is on the allowlist; use the ranking tool

Output Contract

### Hard Gates
| Gate | Status | Detail |
|------|--------|--------|
| ES < 2.5% | PASS/FAIL | ES = X.XX% |
| Illiquidity < 25% | PASS/FAIL | Illiquid = XX.X% of NW |
| Employer Concentration < 15% | PASS/FAIL | [Employer] = XX.X% of liquid |

### Practitioner Heuristic Overlay
| Layer | Signal | Posture | Key Finding |
|-------|--------|---------|-------------|
| Taleb (Ruin) | [scenarios] | [posture] | [stress summary] |
| Taleb (Barbell) | FRAGILE/OK | [posture] | [safe/convex/fragile + gaps] |
| Dalio (Regime) | [signal] | [posture] | [regime concentration] |
| Marks (Temperature) | [score or incomplete] | [posture] | [cycle context] |
| Buffett / Soros | [signal] | [posture] | [valuation/reflexive note] |

Constraints

• Advisory only
• hard gates must be enforced
• do not fabricate missing data
• use the convex ranking tool for candidate selection
• do not present an anti-fragile menu as if it were already the recommendation