hvkshetry /returns-analysis — IRR/MOIC Scenario Analysis
Model investor-outcome scenarios for private or illiquid investments.
MCP Tool Map
- Illiquid asset context:
finance-graph.list_assets,finance-graph.list_valuation_observations,finance-graph.get_ownership_graph - Market/rates context:
market-intel-direct.get_market_snapshot,market-intel-direct.get_fred_series - Comparable exit context:
sec-edgar.sec_edgar_financial,sec-edgar.sec_edgar_filing
Workflow
Step 1: Investment Parameters
- Entry valuation and investment amount.
- Ownership percentage, instrument type, and rights.
- Expected hold period and liquidity constraints.
Step 2: Base Case Modeling
- Project operating performance over hold period.
- Determine exit valuation using comparable transactions or multiple-based approach.
- Calculate gross IRR and MOIC for the base case.
Step 3: Scenario Analysis
- Bull case: Accelerated growth, multiple expansion, early exit.
- Base case: Plan-line performance, stable multiples.
- Bear case: Slower growth, margin compression, delayed exit or down-round.
- Calculate IRR and MOIC for each scenario.
Step 4: Sensitivity Analysis
- Key driver sensitivities: revenue growth, exit multiple, hold period, dilution.
- Identify break-even assumptions for minimum acceptable return threshold.
Step 5: Output
- Scenario summary table (IRR, MOIC, exit value per scenario).
- Sensitivity matrix on top two drivers.
- Key risks and mitigants.
- Comparison to portfolio return requirements.
- Data gaps and assumption risks.