hzhijun0724 Zhou Jintao Cycle Research
Use this skill for qualitative-first cycle research inspired by Zhou Jintao. The goal is to locate the economy and markets inside nested cycles, then translate that position into asset-class, industry, and stock opportunity maps.
This skill is for research, not financial advice. Treat cycle conclusions as probabilistic scenarios, not deterministic prophecy.
Core Lens
- Start with the long wave: Kondratieff cycle position, technological revolution, capital expenditure cycle, and debt/credit regime.
- Nest shorter cycles inside the long wave: real estate cycle, Juglar equipment investment cycle, inventory cycle, and policy cycle.
- Link macro cycle phase to asset order: commodities, equities, bonds, real estate, gold, cash, and currency.
- Distinguish secular beta from cyclical rebound. A short-cycle bounce inside a long-wave downturn should be treated differently from a new long-wave upswing.
- Watch for "人生发财靠康波" as a research reminder: major wealth opportunities often come from aligning with long-cycle inflection points, not from constant trading.
Workflow
Refresh current data before making present-tense claims.
- Check growth, inflation, credit, rates, dollar, commodities, real estate, inventory, capex, and policy.
- Use source-map.md as a conceptual source checklist, then update with current data and market evidence.
Identify the cycle stack.
- Long wave: recovery, prosperity, recession, depression, or transition.
- Real estate cycle: expansion, peak, contraction, balance-sheet repair, or restart.
- Juglar cycle: equipment capex expansion, overinvestment, liquidation, or replacement.
- Inventory cycle: restocking, passive destocking, active destocking, or early restocking.
Translate cycle position into assets.
- State which assets historically fit the phase and why.
- Separate structural logic from price confirmation.
- Note policy distortions, globalization shifts, and China-specific conditions when relevant.
Build the industry map.
- For each favored asset or macro regime, map industries: upstream resources, energy, shipping, industrial equipment, real estate chain, consumer, financials, technology, defense, gold miners, brokers, insurers, or high-dividend assets.
- Identify whether the opportunity is demand recovery, supply constraint, pricing power, balance-sheet repair, or valuation mean reversion.
Generate stock opportunities.
- Prefer a watchlist by cycle theme rather than a single recommendation.
- Include confirmation indicators: order backlog, inventory days, price spread, capacity utilization, capex guidance, debt maturity, ROE turn, earnings revision, and valuation percentile.
- Add invalidation conditions and timing risk.
Produce a cycle memo.
- Lead with the cycle location and the strongest evidence.
- Include asset implications, industry rotation, stock watchlist, catalysts, disconfirming evidence, and risk controls.
- End with a clear non-advice disclaimer.
Output Template
Provide:
- Current source check and dates
- Cycle stack diagnosis
- Asset-class implication
- Industry rotation map
- Stock opportunity watchlist
- Catalysts and confirming indicators
- Disconfirming evidence and timing risk
- Final research verdict
Research Discipline
- Do not force every market move into a cycle story.
- Separate Zhou Jintao's original framework from later interpretation or folk summaries.
- Use primary market data, company filings, and earnings calls for current claims.
- Treat cycle timing as a range; give scenarios and signposts rather than one-date certainty.
- If using quoted text from books or web pages, keep excerpts short and rely on paraphrase.