ifuryst Investment Risk Diligence
Use this skill to pressure-test an investment case before synthesis. It should look for ways the thesis can fail, not merely restate generic risk factors.
Inputs
ResearchTargetfromresearch-target-resolver- filings, earnings notes, financial snapshot, news digest, market signals, and competitive analysis where available
- known bull, base, or bear claims that need pressure testing
- user portfolio constraints when the risk question is portfolio-specific
Workflow
- Load the target profile, existing evidence, and any draft thesis claims.
- Build a risk inventory across business, financial, accounting, governance, legal, regulatory, macro, market-structure, and execution categories.
- Prioritize risks by evidence strength, severity, time horizon, and ability to break the current thesis.
- Compare company-disclosed risk factors with recent events, financial trends, and market behavior to find new or underweighted risks.
- Identify leading indicators, catalysts, and evidence that would reduce or intensify each material risk.
- Save the diligence note under
research/targets/<target>/evidence/risks/. - Hand off material risks, contradictions, and watch items to valuation and thesis synthesis.
Read references/risk-diligence-checklist.md before writing the risk note.
Output
Return:
- prioritized risk register
- thesis-breaking questions
- accounting, governance, legal, regulatory, and financing flags
- concentration, cyclicality, and execution risks
- watch indicators and source-monitoring plan
- evidence gaps and unavailable sources
- archive files created or updated
- handoffs to valuation, thesis, and watchlist artifacts
Quality Gate
Before finishing:
- distinguish disclosed generic risks from current, evidence-backed risks
- include at least one thesis-breaking question when a thesis exists
- label probability and impact as estimates unless sourced
- avoid overstating risk from a single weak signal
- preserve source dates, reporting periods, and event timing
- state which risk areas were not assessable from available evidence