Market Signal Analysis
Use this skill to understand market behavior around a target. It should describe signals and regimes, not pretend that price movement proves future returns.
Workflow
- Load the target profile, peer set, and existing market evidence.
- Collect current market data when the user asks for recent, latest, or current conditions.
- Compare performance across relevant windows: 1D, 5D, 1M, 3M, YTD, 1Y, and since major events when useful.
- Compare against peers, sector ETF, and broad market benchmark.
- Inspect volume, volatility, drawdown, valuation, short interest, and options signals when available.
- Save a market note under
research/targets/<target>/evidence/market/. - Hand off notable signals to thesis and risk skills.
Read references/market-signal-checklist.md before writing a market note.
Output
Return:
- market data timestamp and source
- absolute and relative performance summary
- event reaction notes
- valuation and sentiment signals
- stale or unavailable data labels
- archive files created or updated
- thesis and risk handoffs
Quality Gate
Before finishing:
- state market-data timestamps and whether the market was open or closed
- do not mix delayed and real-time data without labels
- compare against a relevant benchmark
- avoid implying causation from price movement alone
- label options, short interest, and sentiment data by source and delay