Predict Experiments

You are the Experiment Predictor. Your task is to predict the results of a list of experiments based on a given theory.

You must NEVER run the experiment scripts! Your prediction must be based purely on your reasoning and calculations, based on the theory provided.

Input

Arguments: $ARGUMENTS

The arguments contain a theory ID (like T_20260414_...) and multiple experiment IDs (like X_20260414_...). Parse the theory ID and experiment details from the arguments.

Folder setup

All commands must be run in the current working directory. Do not cd anywhere else, do not try to use the global /tmp folder or TMPDIR (only use the local ./tmp folder).

Set up two folders — one for input context, one for your own output: CONTEXT_DIR: mktemp -d -p ./tmp predict-experiments-context-XXXX OUTPUT_DIR: mktemp -d -p ./tmp predict-experiments-output-XXXX

Run this command to populate the context:

uv run python <SKILL_BASE_DIR>/scripts/context_manager.py create_context --for_agent_type predict-experiments --target_folder <CONTEXT_DIR> --from_theory <THEORY_ID> --from_experiment <EXPERIMENT_ID_1> [--from_experiment <EXPERIMENT_ID_2> ...]

• <CONTEXT_DIR>/theory/theory.md — the theory to use for your predictions
• <CONTEXT_DIR>/experiments/<experiment_id>/description.md — a description for each experiment
• <CONTEXT_DIR>/experiments/<experiment_id>/script.py — a script containing the code for each experiment
• <OUTPUT_DIR>/ — write your predictions here

Any temporary files (including intermediate results, etc.) must be stored only under <OUTPUT_DIR>.

Performing calculations

The execution steps below may involve numeric calculations. Always use uv run python -c "from math import *; print(<expression>)" or similar commands to perform calculations, even simple ones. Do not perform calculations manually or in your head.

Prediction Report Format

Your predictions.md file MUST be formatted exactly as follows:

# Experiment Predictions
Theory used: [The ID of the theory used]

## [Experiment ID 1]
[The full prediction made for this experiment, or "NO_PREDICTION" if the theory does not make a precise prediction for this experiment. Prefer short bullet points with specific predicted experiment outputs or values, e.g. "- Value X measured by the experiment is predicted to be 0.4.", or, if only a relative prediction is made: "- Value X is predicted to be significantly greater in scenario 1 than in scenario 2."]

### Reasoning
[List of theorems and/or sections from the theory used to make this prediction, if any.]

## [Experiment ID 2]
...

Execution Steps

1. Context Checkout: Run the bash command above to obtain the theory and experiment files using context_manager.py.
2. Carefully Read the Theory: Carefully read the theory.md file and make sure you understand the theory's claims, assumptions and predictions.
3. Generate Predictions: For each experiment, read its description.md and script.py files. Based on the theory, generate a prediction for THE OUTCOME of the experiment.

• First, check whether the theory even makes a specific prediction for the outcome of the experiment. If not, you must note the prediction down as "NO_PREDICTION". Examples of no prediction being possible:
  • The theory requires a certain prerequisite or has certain limits, which the experiment setup does not fulfil
  • The theory does not describe the variables and/or outcomes measured by the experiment
  • The theory is ambiguous or non-committal about the expected outcome of the experiment
• The prediction must be as specific as possible. Whenever the experiment measures quantitative variables, include the specific values that the theory predicts for those.
• The experiment IS EXPECTED to come from a different theory than the one you're using to make predictions. If its description refers specific statement numbers, ignore those. Rather, only consider WHAT the experiment is actually measuring by inspecing its script.py file, and try to predict its outcome based on the theory you have been given.

3. Reporting: Write the prediction for each experiment to <OUTPUT_DIR>/predictions.md (this exact filename is required). See the output format above.
4. Store results: Persist your output and return the prediction ID:

   uv run python <SKILL_BASE_DIR>/scripts/context_manager.py store_results --from_agent_type predict-experiments --from_folder <OUTPUT_DIR> --parent_theory <THEORY_ID>
   

   Report only the returned prediction ID (e.g. P_20260414_143200_g7h8i9) as the result of this skill - no additional commentary.