itseffi Assumption Prioritization
Prioritize assumptions to focus validation efforts on what matters most.
When to Use
After assumption mapping, to decide which assumptions to test first.
The Framework
Score each assumption on two dimensions:
Importance (1-5): Business impact if false
- 5 = Strategy fails, >20% revenue hit
- 4 = Major adoption/cost driver (10-20%)
- 3 = Moderate impact (5-10%)
- 2 = Minor impact (<5%)
- 1 = Negligible
Certainty (1-5): Evidence that it's true
- 1 = No evidence, conjecture
- 2 = Anecdotes, untested
- 3 = Early signals, small samples
- 4 = Strong directional data
- 5 = Robust evidence, production proof
Risk Score = Importance x (6 - Certainty)
Higher score = riskier assumption = test first
The Process
1. Score Each Assumption
Consider:
- Impact severity from "impact if wrong"
- Blast radius (users/systems affected)
- Irreversibility (cost to fix later)
- Dependencies (does it block others?)
- Evidence quality
2. Map to Quadrants
| Low Certainty | High Certainty | |
|---|---|---|
| High Importance | TEST FIRST | Monitor |
| Low Importance | Deprioritize | Ignore |
3. Rank by Risk Score
Focus validation on High Importance / Low Certainty assumptions.
Output
- 2x2 summary with counts per quadrant
- Top risks ranked by score with rationale
- Full ranked list of all assumptions
When Not to Use
Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.