itseffi Decision Journal
Create structured records of decisions for learning and accountability.
When to Use
When making important decisions that you want to track and learn from.
The Framework
Record these components for each decision:
1. Expected Outcomes
List 3-5 possible outcomes:
- Best case scenario
- Most likely scenario
- Worst case scenario
- Consider short and long-term
2. Probability Estimates
For each outcome, estimate likelihood (must sum to 100%):
- Outcome A: X%
- Outcome B: Y%
- etc.
3. Key Assumptions
List 3-5 critical assumptions:
- What beliefs underlie this decision?
- Which, if wrong, would change the outcome?
4. Base Rates
Research relevant statistics:
- What's typical for this type of decision?
- Historical data or industry averages?
- What do similar situations suggest?
5. Quit Conditions
Define 2-3 triggers to abandon or change course:
- Clear, measurable indicators
- Specific thresholds
- Timeline checkpoints
6. Actual Results
Leave blank initially, fill in later:
- What actually happened?
- Which outcome occurred?
- Were assumptions valid?
Review Process
After outcomes are known:
- Compare predictions to reality
- Identify where thinking was wrong
- Extract lessons for future decisions
When Not to Use
Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.