Planning Market Analysis

Market Analysis

Purpose

Produce data-driven market and competitive analyses to inform product strategy. Covers TAM/SAM/SOM sizing, direct and indirect competitor comparison, SWOT analysis, and differentiation positioning.

Good market analysis separates successful product strategies from guesswork. It answers four essential questions: how big is the opportunity (market sizing), who else is chasing it (competitor analysis), what are our unique advantages (SWOT and moat), and what trends will reshape the market in the next 2-3 years (trend analysis). This skill produces a structured report with sourced data, comparative matrices, and actionable positioning recommendations. The output is usable for strategic planning, investor pitches, and product roadmap prioritization.

Architecture/Decision Trees

Analysis Depth Decision Tree

Is this for an investor pitch or fundraising?
  |-- YES --> Full analysis: TAM/SAM/SOM, 10+ competitors, SWOT, trends
  |-- NO --> Is this for internal product strategy?
        |-- YES --> Medium analysis: TAM/SAM/SOM, 5-7 competitors, SWOT, trends
        |-- NO --> Light analysis: TAM only, 3-5 competitors, SWOT

Do you have access to paid analyst reports (Gartner, Forrester, IDC)?
  |-- YES --> Top-down TAM using analyst data, validated bottom-up
  |-- NO --> Bottom-up TAM using unit economics, benchmark against public companies

Is your market mature or emerging?
  |-- MATURE --> Focus on market share analysis and competitive differentiation
  |-- EMERGING --> Focus on market creation timeline and category leadership

What is the competitive landscape?
  |-- MANY DIRECT COMPETITORS --> Differentiation strategy, positioning map, feature matrix
  |-- FEW DIRECT COMPETITORS --> Look for indirect competitors and adjacent substitutes
  |-- NO DIRECT COMPETITORS --> Validate: are we creating a new category or missing existing alternatives?

Agent Protocol

Trigger

"market analysis", "competitive analysis", "market research", "TAM SAM SOM", "market sizing", "competitor research", "market landscape", "industry analysis"

Input Context

• Industry or market category name
• Product description with unique value proposition and target customer persona
• Geographic scope: global, specific region, or country-level
• Known competitors: direct and indirect
• Available market data sources
• Pricing model and price point(s)
• Distribution channels and go-to-market strategy

Output Artifact

Market analysis report covering TAM/SAM/SOM sizing, competitive feature matrix, SWOT profiles, market trends, and positioning map.

Response Format

• TAM/SAM/SOM with both top-down and bottom-up calculation methods, including source citations
• Competitor feature comparison matrix: features x competitors with symbols and notes
• SWOT tables per major player (your product plus top 3 competitors)
• Positioning map with labeled axes and plotted competitor positions
• Trend summary: key trends with directional arrows and impact assessment
• No preamble. No postamble. No explanations. No filler.

Completion Criteria

TAM/SAM/SOM calculated using both methods with reconciled numbers. Minimum 5 competitors analyzed. SWOT analysis complete for your product and top 3 competitors. Positioning map plotted with clear differentiation axis. At least 3 market trends identified with directional assessment.

Max Response Length

3000 tokens

Workflow

Step 1: Size the Market

Calculate TAM, SAM, SOM using two independent methods and reconcile.

Top-down approach: Start with an industry analyst TAM figure, then apply percentage filters for your segment, region, and customer profile. Cite specific sources (Gartner, Forrester, IDC, Statista).

Bottom-up approach: Start with your unit economics and multiply by the number of potential customers, then apply expected conversion rates. More credible for early-stage companies because it ties to real customer data.

Reconciliation: The two methods should produce numbers within 2x of each other. If they diverge more, revisit your assumptions.

Market sizing template:

## Market Sizing

### Top-Down
TAM = ${number} ({source}, {year})
SAM = TAM * {segment %} * {region %} = ${number}
SOM = SAM * {capture %} = ${number}

### Bottom-Up
SOM = ${price/yr} * {potential customers} * {expected conversion %} = ${number}
SAM = SOM * {inverse capture %} = ${number}
TAM = SAM * {inverse segment %} / {inverse region %} = ${number}

### Reconciled
TAM: ~${number}
SAM: ~${number}
SOM: ~${number}

Step 2: Analyze Competitors

Segment competitors into direct and indirect.

Direct competitors: Same problem, same solution category (e.g., Slack vs Teams). Indirect competitors: Same problem, different solution (e.g., Slack vs email). "Do nothing": The status quo — always a competitor.

For each competitor, research:

• Feature set (test the product yourself, not just website claims)
• Pricing model and price points
• Target customer segments
• Estimated market share and growth rate
• Funding stage and total raised
• Key strengths and weaknesses
• Recent strategic moves (acquisitions, partnerships, pivots)

Competitor analysis template:

### {Competitor Name}
**Category:** Direct / Indirect
**Target customer:** {description}
**Pricing:** ${amount}/mo, {model}
**Estimated share:** {X}% of market
**Funding:** ${total}, {stage}
**Strengths:**
- {strength}
- {strength}
**Weaknesses:**
- {weakness}
- {weakness}
**Recent moves:** {acquisitions, partnerships, pivots}

Step 3: Run SWOT Analysis

For your product and each top competitor: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats.

SWOT cross-reference:

• Your Strength → Their Weakness = Exploit
• Their Weakness → Your Opportunity = Target
• Your Weakness → Their Strength = Mitigate
• Their Threat → Your Opportunity = Defend

SWOT quality criteria:

• Strengths and weaknesses are internal (team, technology, brand, IP)
• Opportunities and threats are external (market trends, regulation, competitors)
• No empty quadrants — if a quadrant is empty, you are missing something
• Each item is specific and actionable — "strong team" is too vague, "CTO has 15 years in the industry" is specific
• At least 3 items per quadrant

Step 4: Identify Trends

Categorize trends into four buckets:

Technology shifts: AI/ML adoption, cloud migration, new regulation, platform changes.

Regulatory changes: GDPR, CCPA, HIPAA updates, industry-specific regulation, trade policy.

Consumer/buyer behavior: Remote work, sustainability preferences, channel shift, generational changes.

Competitive dynamics: Consolidation, new entrants, partnership ecosystems, pricing pressure.

Trend assessment template:

### {Trend Name}
**Category:** {Technology / Regulatory / Behavior / Competition}
**Direction:** ↗ Growing / → Stable / ↘ Declining
**Impact on us:** Positive / Negative / Mixed
**Timeframe:** {Near-term / Medium-term / Long-term}
**Our response:** {What we should do about it}

Step 5: Define Differentiation

Synthesize findings into:

• Unique value proposition: One sentence that captures why customers should choose you
• Competitive moat: What prevents competitors from copying you (network effects, switching costs, data, IP, brand, scale, regulation)
• Positioning map: 2x2 matrix with relevant axes, all major competitors plotted, your position highlighted

Positioning map rules:

• Choose axes that matter to your target customer (price vs quality, simplicity vs power, speed vs customization)
• Place competitors based on real data, not perceptions
• Your position should be in a clear, defensible sweet spot
• Avoid placing yourself in the top-right corner (everyone claims that)
• Include "do nothing" as a reference point

Process Patterns

Pattern 1: The Full Market Analysis

When: Fundraising, strategic planning, or market entry decision Process: All sections — TAM/SAM/SOM (2 methods), 10+ competitors, SWOT for top 5, trends (4+), positioning map, differentiation strategy, risks to market position. Takes 2-4 weeks with dedicated research. Output: Comprehensive report ready for investors or board.

Pattern 2: The Competitive Quick Scan

When: Need rapid competitive intelligence for a roadmap decision Process: Light analysis — 5-7 competitors, feature comparison matrix, positioning map only. No formal TAM/SAM/SOM. Takes 2-3 days. Output: Competitive snapshot for internal decision-making.

Pattern 3: The Market Validation Brief

When: Early-stage idea validation, pre-product Process: Focus on TAM/SAM/SOM (bottom-up heavy), competitive landscape confirmation (are there really no competitors?), and customer willingness to pay. No deep SWOT or trends. Output: 2-page brief validating market opportunity size.

Pattern 4: The Ongoing Competitive Monitor

When: Need to track competitors over time Process: Set up tracking for competitor releases, pricing changes, funding announcements. Monthly competitive brief with any changes since last report. Quarterly full refresh. Output: Monthly bulletin + quarterly deep dive.

Market Risk Analysis

Risk Identification Framework

Identify risks in four categories that could invalidate market analysis assumptions:

Demand risk: Market smaller than estimated, customers don't perceive the problem, willingness to pay lower than assumed. Mitigation: validate demand through pre-orders, waitlists, or landing page conversion before building. Use problem interviews to confirm pain point severity.

Competitive risk: New entrants emerge, existing competitors respond aggressively, substitute solutions improve. Mitigation: scenario plan competitive responses. Identify defensible moat elements (network effects, data, switching costs, IP) and their durability.

Timing risk: Market not ready (too early), window closing (too late), regulatory changes pending. Mitigation: map technology adoption lifecycle. Identify early adopter segment vs mainstream market readiness. Monitor regulatory landscape quarterly.

Execution risk: Cannot build the product at the cost required, cannot reach customers through planned channels, cannot achieve unit economics needed. Mitigation: validate technical feasibility before committing to market assumptions. Build bottom-up TAM based on actual unit economics, not aspirational targets.

Risk Documentation Template

Risk: {description}
Category: {Demand / Competitive / Timing / Execution}
Probability: {Low / Medium / High}
Impact: {Low / Medium / High}
Mitigation: {what we can do}
Trigger: {what would indicate this risk is materializing}

Anti-Patterns

Anti-Pattern 1: TAM Fantasy

Using the largest possible market definition without considering realistic serviceable segments. "We are in the $100B healthcare market" when you make a scheduling tool for dental offices. Anti-pattern signal: SAM is > 50% of TAM.

Anti-Pattern 2: Confirmation Bias

Selecting data that supports the desired outcome and ignoring contrary signals. Every market analysis should include a "risks to our thesis" section. Anti-pattern signal: all data points are positive.

Anti-Pattern 3: Static Analysis

Treating the market as fixed when competitors are entering, merging, and exiting. An analysis that is 6 months old may already be outdated. Anti-pattern signal: no date on the analysis.

Anti-Pattern 4: Ignoring Indirect Competitors

Focusing only on direct competitors while adjacent solutions eat your market. Slack's indirect competitor was email, not just Teams. Anti-pattern signal: competitor list has only direct competitors.

Anti-Pattern 5: SWOT Without Weaknesses

A SWOT analysis that lists 7 strengths, 5 opportunities, 4 threats, and 0 weaknesses is not credible. Every organization has weaknesses. Anti-pattern signal: empty Weaknesses quadrant.

Anti-Pattern 6: Feature Parity Obsession

Believing the product with the most features wins. Customers choose based on the job they need done, not feature count. Anti-pattern signal: feature matrix longer than the differentiation section.

Anti-Pattern 7: Fake Differentiation

Listing differentiators that are not actually different. "We have better customer support" — every company claims this. True differentiators are measurable: "We respond to support tickets in under 2 hours during business hours."

Templates

Market Analysis Report Template

# Market Analysis: {Market Name}

## Executive Summary
{1-2 paragraph summary of findings}

## Market Sizing
{TAM/SAM/SOM with both methods}

## Competitive Landscape
{Overview of competitors, segmented by direct/indirect}

## Feature Comparison Matrix
{Matrix with features x competitors}

## SWOT Analysis
{Your SWOT + top 3 competitors' SWOT}

## Market Trends
{4-6 trends with directional assessment}

## Positioning
{Positioning map + differentiation strategy}

## Risks
{Risks to market position and mitigation}

Feature Comparison Matrix Template

Success Metrics

Models

Market Sizing Reconciliation

Top-Down:
  TAM = $5B (Gartner 2024)
  SAM = $5B x 60% (US+EU) x 40% (SaaS) = $1.2B
  SOM = $1.2B x 8% (5yr capture) = $96M

Bottom-Up:
  SOM = $420/yr x 200,000 customers x 85% = $71.4M
  SAM = $71.4M x 5 = $357M
  TAM = $357M x 10 = $3.57B

Reconciled: TAM ~$4.2B, SAM ~$850M, SOM ~$85M

SWOT Cross-Reference

Porter's Five Forces

Rules

• Source every number — unattributed market sizes are guesses, not data.
• Top-down and bottom-up both required — use both and reconcile.
• Features are not strategy — feature matrix reveals parity, SWOT reveals strategic differences.
• Be honest about weaknesses — a SWOT with no weaknesses is not credible.
• Update quarterly — any analysis older than 6 months is stale.
• Distinguish direct from indirect competitors — both matter strategically but require different responses.
• Focus on top 5-7 competitors — deep analysis beats shallow coverage of 20.
• External validation beats internal estimates — prefer cited analyst data and public filings.

Best Practices

• Build your feature comparison matrix from actual product testing, not just website claims.
• Interview 3-5 potential customers before finalizing TAM assumptions.
• Use the BCG matrix (Stars, Cash Cows, Question Marks, Dogs) as an additional framework.
• Cross-reference your market analysis with the PRD to ensure requirements match market needs.
• Include a "risks to market position" section for each competitor.
• Use multiple data sources and triangulate — do not rely on a single number.

Common Pitfalls

• TAM fantasy: Using the largest possible market definition without considering realistic serviceable segments.
• Confirmation bias: Selecting data that supports the desired outcome and ignoring contrary signals.
• Static analysis: Treating the market as fixed when competitors are entering, merging, and exiting.
• Ignoring indirect competitors: Focusing only on direct competitors while adjacent solutions eat your market.
• Outdated data: Using 2+ year old market reports in a fast-moving market.
• No differentiation: SWOT analysis that lists the same strengths as every competitor.

Compared With

Performance

• A thorough market analysis takes 2-4 weeks with dedicated research.
• TAM/SAM/SOM should be updated every 6 months at minimum.
• Competitive feature matrix should be refreshed every 3 months.
• SWOT analysis should be reviewed each quarter or on major market events.
• A competitive quick scan can be done in 2-3 days.

Tooling/Methodology

• Market data sources: Gartner, Forrester, IDC, Statista, CB Insights, Crunchbase, SEC EDGAR, PitchBook.
• Competitive intelligence: BuiltWith, Wappalyzer, SimilarWeb, Semrush, Ahrefs.
• Survey tools: SurveyMonkey, Typeform, Qualtrics for primary market research.
• Analysis tools: Excel/Google Sheets for TAM models, Miro/MURAL for SWOT workshops.
• Visualization: Canva, Pitch, Google Slides for presentation-ready output.

Expanded Decision Trees

Competitive Response Strategy Decision Tree

What is the competitor's move?
  |-- Price cut --> Do they have cost advantage?
  |     |-- YES --> Match or beat price only if we have similar costs
  |     |-- NO --> Compete on value, not price (differentiate)
  |-- New feature launch --> Is the feature core to their value prop?
  |     |-- YES --> How quickly can we respond? (3mo / 6mo / 12mo)
  |     |-- NO --> Monitor, do not react immediately
  |-- Market expansion --> Does it directly compete for our customers?
  |     |-- YES --> Accelerate retention efforts + differentiation
  |     |-- NO --> No response needed, monitor
  |-- Acquisition/partnership --> Does it create a stronger competitor?
        |-- YES --> Assess combined entity's capabilities; consider own M&A
        |-- NO --> Monitor for indirect effects

Market Entry Strategy Decision Tree

Is the market growing (>10% YoY)?
  |-- YES --> Enter now with investment in growth
  |-- NO --> Is it a mature market with stable margins?
        |-- YES --> Enter only with differentiation or cost advantage
        |-- NO --> Declining market → Do not enter unless exit strategy clear

Is there an existing competitor with >40% market share?
  |-- YES --> Can we target an underserved segment?
  |     |-- YES --> Enter with niche focus
  |     |-- NO --> Consider adjacent market instead
  |-- NO --> Can we achieve first-mover advantage?
        |-- YES --> Enter fast with brand-building investment
        |-- NO --> Enter with strong differentiation

Do we have existing distribution channels?
  |-- YES --> Lower entry barrier, leverage existing relationships
  |-- NO --> Higher entry cost, include channel-building in investment plan

Pricing Strategy Decision Tree (Market Context)

What is our market position?
  |-- Market leader --> Set price; competitors follow or undercut
  |-- Challenger --> Price slightly below leader; compete on value
  |-- Niche player --> Premium pricing for specialized offering
  |-- New entrant --> Penetration pricing or freemium to gain share

What is the price sensitivity of target customers?
  |-- High sensitivity (commodity) --> Compete on price + efficiency
  |-- Medium sensitivity --> Value-based pricing with clear differentiation
  |-- Low sensitivity (premium) --> Premium pricing with exclusivity

Templates

Competitive Response Plan Template

# Competitive Response: {Competitor} — {Move}

## Situation Assessment
- Competitor move: {what they did}
- Date: {when}
- Impact on our position: {assessment}
- Urgency: {immediate / this quarter / monitor}

## Recommendation
{respond / monitor / no action}

## Response Plan (if respond)
| Action | Owner | Timeline | Resources | Success Metric |
|--------|-------|----------|-----------|----------------|

## Risk Assessment
{risks of responding vs risks of not responding}

## Triggers for Escalation
{what would cause us to change our response}

Market Entry Plan Template

# Market Entry: {Market Name}

## Market Opportunity
TAM: ${amount}
Growth rate: {X% YoY}
Our target segment: {description}
Estimated SAM: ${amount}

## Entry Strategy
Mode: {organic / acquisition / partnership}
Timeline: {entry date} to {target milestone}
Initial investment: ${amount}
Break-even timeline: {timeframe}

## Go-to-Market
Distribution: {channels}
Pricing: {strategy relative to competitors}
Positioning: {differentiation message}

## Risk Assessment
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| {risk} | {H/M/L} | {H/M/L} | {mitigation} |

## Success Criteria
{measurable outcomes within 6/12/24 months}

Trend Impact Assessment Template

# Trend Analysis: {Market/Industry}

| Trend | Direction | Impact (1-5) | Timeframe | Our Response | Priority |
|-------|-----------|-------------|-----------|-------------|----------|
| {trend} | ↗/→/↘ | {score} | {near/med/long} | {action} | {H/M/L} |

Key signal strength indicators:
- {signal}: {strong / moderate / weak} — {evidence}
- {signal}: {strong / moderate / weak} — {evidence}

Scenario: If {key trend} accelerates, our strategy should {shift}.
Scenario: If {key trend} reverses, our strategy should {shift}.

Expanded Competitive Analysis

Competitor Response Modeling

Map each competitor's likely response to your market entry:

Response types: price matching, feature parity, marketing blitz, exclusivity deals, legal challenges, acquisition of supplier. Prepare counter-strategies for each response type before entering the market.

Market Share Analysis Methods

Triangulate from at least 2 methods. If methods diverge >20%, investigate why.

Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas Template

Map your offering against competitors on key competitive factors:

High ──────────────────────────────────
      |    \                 /
      |     \               /
Med   |      \             /
      |       \           /
      |        \_________/
Low  ──────────────────────────────────
      Factor A  B  C  D  E  F
      --- Industry curve
      ... Our offering

Identify factors to: Eliminate (industry standard but no value), Reduce (below industry standard), Raise (above industry standard), Create (new to industry). The resulting strategy canvas shows your differentiation at a glance.

Expanded Anti-Patterns

8. Market Size Inflation

Defining TAM so broadly that it includes markets you can never serve. "We're in the $3T healthcare market" when you sell appointment scheduling software to US dental practices ($2B SAM). Anti-pattern signal: TAM is >100x your realistic SOM. Fix: define TAM as the narrowest reasonable market. Add adjacent market expansion in the future section.

9. Ignoring Market Timing

Analyzing market size without considering whether the market is ready. You may have the right product for a market that doesn't exist yet (too early) or a market that has passed you by (too late). Fix: map technology adoption lifecycle. Identify early adopter segment. Estimate mainstream adoption timeline. Factor timing risk into market size projections.

10. Competitive Paranoia

Over-reacting to every competitor move. Building features to match competitor releases instead of focusing on customer needs. Anti-pattern signal: roadmap driven by competitor launches, not customer research. Fix: maintain a competitive watch list but make product decisions based on customer value.

11. Survivorship Bias in Competitor Analysis

Analyzing only successful competitors and ignoring failed ones. Misses important lessons about what doesn't work in this market. Anti-pattern signal: all competitors look strong. Fix: include failed competitors in the analysis. What mistakes did they make? What would you do differently?

12. Analysis Without Synthesis

Collecting massive amounts of market data without drawing actionable conclusions. The analysis section is comprehensive but there is no "so what" section. Fix: every section should end with implications for your product strategy. The final section should synthesize all findings into 3-5 actionable recommendations.

Expanded Success Metrics

Market Research Methods Comparison

Triangulate findings from at least 2 methods for critical decisions.

Expanded Porter's Five Forces

For each force, assess with evidence and derive strategic implications:

Score each force: 1 (weak/benign) to 5 (strong/threatening). Total score reveals market attractiveness. For scoring, use evidence not intuition. Validate with market participants. A score of 20-25 = highly attractive market, 10-15 = moderately attractive, 5-9 = unattractive.

References

• references/market-analysis-fundamentals.md — Market Analysis Fundamentals
• references/market-analysis-advanced.md — Market Analysis Advanced Topics
• references/competitive-analysis.md — Competitive Analysis Guide
• references/market-analysis-frameworks.md — Market Analysis Frameworks
• references/market-analysis-template.md — Market Analysis Template
• references/market-sizing.md — Market Sizing Guide
• references/market-analysis-data-synthesis.md — Market Analysis Data Synthesis

Handoff

create-roadmap, create-pitch-deck