jarbitechture /em:hard-call — Framework for Decisions With No Good Options
Command: /em:hard-call <decision>
For the decisions that keep you up at 3am. Firing a co-founder. Laying off 20% of the team. Killing a product that customers love. Pivoting. Shutting down.
These decisions don't have a right answer. They have a less wrong answer. This framework helps you find it.
Why These Decisions Are Hard
Not because the data is unclear. Often, the data is clear. They're hard because:
- Real people are affected — someone loses a job, a relationship ends, a team is hurt
- You've been avoiding the decision — which means the problem is already worse than it was
- Irreversibility — unlike most business decisions, you can't undo this easily
- You have skin in the game — your judgment about the right call is clouded by your feelings about it
The longer you avoid a hard call, the worse the situation usually gets. The company that needed a 10% cut 6 months ago now needs a 25% cut. The co-founder conversation that should have happened at month 4 is happening at month 14.
Most hard decisions are late decisions.
The Framework
Step 1: The Reversibility Test
The most important question first: can you undo this?
- Reversible — try it, learn, adjust (fire the vendor, kill the feature, change the strategy)
- Partially reversible — painful to undo but possible (restructure, change co-founder roles)
- Irreversible — cannot be undone (layoff a person, shut down a product with customer lock-in, close a legal entity)
For irreversible decisions, the bar for certainty is higher. You must do more due diligence before acting. Not because you might be wrong — but because you can't take it back.
If you're treating a reversible decision like it's irreversible, you're avoiding it.
Step 2: The 10/10/10 Framework
Ask three questions about each option:
- 10 minutes from now: How will you feel immediately after making this decision?
- 10 months from now: What will the impact be? Will the problem be solved?
- 10 years from now: When you look back, will this have been the right call?
The 10-minute feeling is usually the least reliable guide. The 10-year view usually clarifies what the right call actually is.
Most hard decisions look obvious at 10 years. The question is whether you can tolerate the 10-minute pain.
Step 3: The Andy Grove Test
Andy Grove's test for strategic decisions: "If we got replaced tomorrow and a new CEO came in, what would they do?"
A fresh set of eyes, no emotional investment in the current path, no sunk cost. What's the obvious right call from the outside?
If the answer is clear to an outsider, the question becomes: why haven't you done it yet?
Step 4: Stakeholder Impact Mapping
For each option, map who's affected and how:
| Stakeholder | Option A Impact | Option B Impact | Their reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected employees | |||
| Remaining team | |||
| Customers | |||
| Investors | |||
| You |
This isn't about finding the option that hurts nobody — there isn't one. It's about understanding the full picture before you decide.
Step 4½: Score the Options — Bayesian Table
Hard calls are the one place the Bayesian shape is used (everyday 2+-option decisions use the simple ranked table in rules/recommendation-protocol.md). Score the surviving options:
| # | Option | Prior | Likelihood | Posterior | Driving assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | … | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.62 | the assumption this score rests on |
| 2 | … | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.38 | … |
- Prior = plausibility before this analysis; Likelihood = how well the evidence from Steps 1–4 supports it; Posterior = normalized product — rank by it.
- The numbers are judgment estimates, not measurements. Every row states the assumption driving its score; never present a posterior without one.
Step 5: The Pre-Announcement Test
Before making the decision: write the announcement. The email to the team, the message to the customer, the conversation you'll have.
If you can't write that announcement, you're not ready to make the decision.
Writing it forces you to confront the reality of what you're doing. It also surfaces whether your reasoning holds under examination. "We're making this change because…" — does that sentence ring true?
Step 6: The Communication Plan
Hard decisions almost always get harder if communication is bad. The decision itself is not the only thing that matters — how it's done matters enormously.
For every hard call, plan:
- Who needs to know first (the person directly affected, before anyone else)
- How you'll tell them (in person when possible, never via email for personal impact)
- What you'll say (honest, direct, compassionate — see
references/hard_things.md) - What they can ask (be ready for every question)
- What comes next (give them a clear picture of what happens after)
Decision-Specific Frameworks
Firing a Co-Founder
See references/hard_things.md — Co-Founder Conflicts for full framework.
Key questions to answer first:
- Is this a performance problem or a values/culture problem? (Different conversations)
- Have you been explicit — not hinted, but direct — about the problem?
- What does the cap table look like and what are the legal implications?
- Is there a role that works better for them, or is this a full exit?
- Who needs to know (board, team, investors) and in what order?
The rule: If you've been thinking about this for more than 3 months, you already know the answer. The question is when, not whether.
Layoffs
Key questions:
- Is this a one-time reset or the beginning of a longer decline? (One reset is recoverable. Serial layoffs kill culture.)
- Are you cutting deep enough? (Insufficient layoffs are worse than no layoffs — two rounds destroys trust.)
- Who owns the announcement and is it direct and honest?
- What's the severance and is it fair?
- How do you prevent the best people from leaving after?
The rule: Cut once, cut deep, cut with dignity. Uncertainty is worse than clarity.
Pivoting
Key questions:
- Is this a true pivot (new direction) or an optimization (same direction, different tactic)?
- What are you keeping and what are you abandoning?
- Do you have evidence the new direction works, or are you running from failure?
- How do you tell current customers who bought the old vision?
- What does this do to the board's confidence?
The rule: Pivots should be pulled by evidence of new opportunity, not pushed by failure of the current path.
Killing a Product Line
Key questions:
- What happens to customers currently using it?
- What's the migration path?
- What do the people who built it do?
- Is "kill it" the right call or is "sell it" or "spin it out" better?
- What's the narrative — internally and externally?
The Avoiding-It Test
You know you've been avoiding a hard call if:
- You've thought about it every week for more than a month
- You're hoping the situation will "resolve itself"
- You're waiting for more data that you'll never feel is enough
- You've had the conversation in your head many times but not in real life
- Other people around you have noticed the problem
The cost of delay is almost always higher than the cost of the decision.
Every month you wait, the problem compounds. The co-founder who's not working out becomes more entrenched. The product line that needs to die consumes more resources. The person who needs to be let go affects the people around them.
Make the call. Make it clearly. Make it with dignity.