Vulnerability Triage

Vulnerability Triage

Overview

Vulnerability triage turns a flood of scanner findings or a single CVE into a ranked, justified, time-bound remediation decision. CVSS alone is a poor prioritizer: only a small fraction of CVEs are ever exploited, and a "Critical" CVSS on an isolated internal box may matter far less than a "Medium" on an internet-facing crown-jewel system.

This skill scores each vulnerability across four dimensions and combines them:

1. Severity — CVSS base + temporal (intrinsic technical impact).
2. Exploitability — EPSS probability, CISA KEV listing, public exploit/PoC, weaponization.
3. Exposure — attack vector, internet-facing, network reachability, authentication/preconditions, compensating controls.
4. Business impact — asset criticality, data sensitivity, blast radius, regulatory scope.

Keywords: CVE, CVSS, EPSS, CISA KEV, exploitability, attack vector, remediation SLA, patch priority, vulnerability management, risk score, false positive, compensating control, SSVC, internet-facing, privilege escalation.

When to Use

• Triaging output from Nessus / Qualys / Tenable / Trivy / Grype / Dependabot / Snyk.
• Deciding patch urgency for a newly disclosed CVE.
• Writing a vulnerability risk assessment or exception/risk-acceptance memo.
• Deduplicating and clustering scanner findings by root cause.
• Justifying why something is (or is not) urgent to leadership or auditors.

Workflow

Follow these steps in order. For a single CVE, steps 2-5 take minutes; for a scan, batch through scripts/triage.py first, then hand-review the top tier.

1. Normalize and deduplicate the input

• Collapse duplicate findings: same CVE + same package/component on the same host is one finding instance; many hosts = one vuln with N instances.
• Group by root cause (e.g., one vulnerable openssl version → all dependent findings). Patching the root usually clears the cluster.
• Drop confirmed false positives (see references/false-positives.md) before scoring.

2. Establish severity (CVSS)

• Capture the CVSS v3.1/v4.0 base score and the vector string, not just the number.
• Read the vector: AV (attack vector), AC (complexity), PR (privileges required), UI (user interaction), and impact metrics C/I/A.
• Apply temporal metrics if available (Exploit Code Maturity, Remediation Level). A high base with E:U (unproven) is less urgent than one with E:H (high/weaponized).
• See references/cvss-guide.md for vector decoding and common miscalibrations.

3. Establish exploitability (the single biggest re-ranking signal)

Gather, in priority order:

• CISA KEV: Is the CVE on the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog? If yes, it is being exploited in the wild now — treat as top priority regardless of CVSS.
• EPSS: Exploit Prediction Scoring System probability (0-1) of exploitation in the next 30 days. EPSS ≥ 0.5 is high; ≥ 0.1 is elevated.
• Public exploit / PoC: Exploit-DB, Metasploit module, GitHub PoC, Nuclei template. Weaponized + reliable > theoretical.
• Ransomware / campaign association: known use by ransomware crews escalates urgency.

4. Establish exposure (environmental reality)

Answer for your environment, not the abstract CVE:

• Internet-facing? Reachable from untrusted networks?
• Network reachability: Can an attacker actually reach the vulnerable port/service/path?
• Authentication / preconditions: Does exploitation need valid creds, local access, a specific non-default config, or user interaction?
• Compensating controls: WAF rule, network segmentation, EDR, MFA, the feature being disabled, the package present but unused/dead code.
• Is the vulnerable code path actually invoked? (Reachability analysis for dependencies — a vulnerable function never called ≈ not exploitable.)

5. Establish business impact

• Asset criticality: crown-jewel / production / internal / dev-test / decommissioning.
• Data sensitivity: regulated PII/PHI/PCI, secrets, IP, or low-value data.
• Blast radius: lateral movement potential, shared credentials, identity-tier (Tier 0 / domain controller / CI-CD / cloud control plane).
• Regulatory / contractual clocks (e.g., CISA BOD 22-01 deadlines for federal, PCI DSS timelines).

6. Compute the composite priority and SLA

Use the decision framework below (or run scripts/triage.py). Map the result to a priority tier (P0-P4) and a remediation SLA. Record the rationale — triage is only defensible if the reasoning is written down.

7. Decide the action

For each finding choose exactly one: Patch now / Patch within SLA / Mitigate (compensating control) / Accept risk (with expiry + owner) / False positive. Risk acceptance always needs an owner, a justification, and an expiry date.

Decision Framework

Fast-path overrides (apply first, in order)

1. On CISA KEV AND reachable/exposed → P0 (drop-everything), SLA ≤ 24-72h.
2. EPSS ≥ 0.5 AND internet-facing AND AV:N → P0/P1.
3. CVSS ≥ 9.0 AND internet-facing AND public weaponized exploit → P1.
4. Confirmed not reachable / dead code / not deployed → downgrade to P4 or mark false-positive — exposure gates everything else.

Composite scoring (when no fast-path fires)

Compute a 0-100 priority score (this is what scripts/triage.py implements):

priority = 100 * normalize(
      0.30 * severity_norm        # CVSS base / 10
    + 0.30 * exploitability_norm  # max(EPSS, KEV=1.0, weaponized=0.9, PoC=0.6)
    + 0.25 * exposure_norm        # internet/auth/controls-adjusted, 0..1
    + 0.15 * impact_norm          # asset+data criticality, 0..1
)

This mirrors the spirit of SSVC (Stakeholder-Specific Vulnerability Categorization): decisions driven by exploitation status, exposure, and impact — not raw CVSS. See references/scoring-model.md for the full rationale, the SSVC decision tree, and how to tune weights per organization.

Worked Example (condensed)

CVE-2024-3094 (xz/liblzba backdoor), internal build server, not internet-facing, sshd not exposed externally, package present:

• Severity: CVSS 10.0.
• Exploitability: KEV-adjacent, supply-chain, but exploit requires specific sshd+systemd path.
• Exposure: SSH only reachable from internal admin VLAN; affected versions present.
• Impact: build server = CI/CD = Tier-0-adjacent, high blast radius.
• Result: KEV/severity high but reachable internally + Tier-0 impact → P0, patch/downgrade immediately, rotate any secrets handled by the host.

See examples/triage-walkthrough.md for three fully scored examples, including one that gets downgraded by exposure and one false positive.

Best Practices

• Exploitability and exposure beat CVSS. Always pull KEV + EPSS before ranking.
• Score the instance in your environment, not the abstract CVE. Reachability changes everything.
• Cluster by root cause — fix once, clear many.
• Write the rationale. A triage decision without a recorded "why" is not defensible.
• Risk acceptance is a decision, not a default. Owner + justification + expiry, always.
• Re-triage on new signal. EPSS and KEV change daily; a P3 can become P0 overnight.
• Track SLA aging, not just open counts.

Common Pitfalls

• Sorting by CVSS alone and drowning in "Criticals" nobody can exploit.
• Treating a scanner "Critical" as ground truth without confirming the package is deployed and the version is actually vulnerable (version-range false positives).
• Ignoring KEV/EPSS because "the CVSS is only Medium" — KEV Mediums are real and exploited.
• Forgetting compensating controls and over-prioritizing already-mitigated issues.
• Counting transitive/dev-only dependencies as production exposure.
• Accepting risk with no expiry, so it silently lives forever.

Bundled Files

• references/cvss-guide.md — decode CVSS v3.1/v4.0 vectors, temporal metrics, miscalibrations.
• references/scoring-model.md — composite model, SSVC tree, weight tuning, data sources.
• references/false-positives.md — confirming/ruling out findings, reachability analysis.
• references/sla-policy-template.md — ready-to-adopt SLA + risk-acceptance policy.
• scripts/triage.py — stdlib CLI that scores findings from JSON/CSV and emits a ranked report.
• examples/triage-walkthrough.md — three fully worked, scored examples.
• templates/triage-report.md — fill-in assessment / report template.