JeffBrines Monthly Close (Operate)
Overview
Fold the latest actuals into the model, refresh the forward forecast from the last closed position, and explain the variance. The output is a narrative, not just a variance table - what changed, why, and what it means forward.
Core principle: A close that only reports numbers isn't done. The value is the explanation.
When to use
- Month-end actuals are available
- "How did we do vs plan?" / reforecast requests
Workflow
- Discover the company command. Run
openfpa entrypoint-list <company-root> --kind close. Use a registered close command when one exists; otherwise build the workflow from the approved company architecture. - Ingest the closed month's actuals (see fpa-configure-actuals).
- Establish the freeze line: closed months use actuals; the forecast resumes from the last closed balance. Never let a not-yet-closed month drive conclusions (see fpa-cfo-judgment).
- Recompute the forecast:
pyfpa.cashflow_from_config(cfg)after updating config with the new closed position. - Variance: compare actual vs plan for revenue, gross margin, EBITDA, and ending cash. For each material variance, state the driver (volume, price, cost ratio, timing).
- Pick a reforecast posture and say which you used:
- Plan - frozen forecast unchanged
- Latest estimate - actuals for closed months, plan forward from the last closed balance
- Run-rate - project the YTD actual pace forward
- Write the narrative: the 3 things that moved, the 3 risks forward.
Judgment checks (always)
- Is the "closed" month actually closed, or are accruals/COGS still posting?
- Did any account move because of a one-time/timing item? Separate it from run-rate.
- Multi-entity: is intercompany eliminated before you total?
Next
Close done → fpa-cash-runway (near-term liquidity), fpa-board-briefing (the writeup), and fpa-backtest-learn (score the prior forecast). Persistent or material misses feed fpa-research-loop for bounded challenger epochs.