jeremylongshore Nixtla Explain Analyst
Overview
Generate plain-English explanations of TimeGPT forecasts for non-technical stakeholders, with a short executive narrative plus driver-oriented analysis.
Prerequisites
- A forecast output artifact to explain (CSV/JSON/markdown), or a path under the plugin workspace containing results.
- If using TimeGPT outputs: access to the TimeGPT run metadata used to generate the forecast.
Instructions
- Locate the forecast results file(s) and any run metadata (model, horizon, frequency, training window).
- Summarize forecast context: what is being forecast, horizon, and any known events/holidays/regressors.
- Explain forecast shape using: baseline level, trend direction, seasonal pattern (if present), and uncertainty.
- Provide driver analysis at the level supported by available data (do not fabricate causal drivers).
- Produce a stakeholder-ready narrative plus a short technical appendix (assumptions + limitations).
Output
- Executive: 1-page summary for C-level
- Technical: Detailed analysis for data science
- Compliance: SOX/Basel III documentation
Error Handling
- If only point forecasts are available, state that uncertainty intervals are unavailable and recommend generating prediction intervals.
- If inputs are missing (no horizon/freq), request the minimum details required to interpret results.
- If drivers/regressors are not provided, restrict “drivers” to observable components (trend/seasonality/outliers).
Examples
User: “Explain the Q4 forecast for the board presentation.”
Response structure:
- Executive summary (3–6 bullets)
- What changed vs last quarter (trend/seasonality)
- Key risks and uncertainty
- Assumptions and limitations (what was/wasn’t modeled)
Resources
- Plugin docs and outputs under
005-plugins/nixtla-forecast-explainer/