Scenario Model

Scenario Model Skill

Purpose

Build financial scenario models for cost productivity initiatives. Takes a cost lever and models Conservative/Base/Stretch outcomes with phasing across FY26–28. Output is always an Excel workbook with formulas — never hardcoded computed values.

Trigger Phrases

• "model this", "scenario model", "what's the upside/downside", "size the opportunity"
• "how much could we save", "build a business case model", "financial model for [initiative]"
• When Jacob has identified a cost lever and wants to quantify the range of outcomes

Execution Steps

Step 1 — Define the Lever

Confirm the following before proceeding. If any are missing, ask Jacob directly:

• What is being optimised? (e.g. payment terms, vendor consolidation, travel policy, headcount)
• What is the current cost base? Annual run-rate in AUD. If unknown, flag as "requires data".
• What are the available levers? Rate / volume / mix / policy / process
• What data exists? The spend cube, data request outputs, or provided in conversation
• What is the initiative timeline? Any known constraints on FY26 landing (contracts, systems, approvals)

Do not proceed to Step 2 until cost base and lever type are confirmed.

Step 2 — Build the Scenario Table

Three scenarios, each with stated assumptions:

• Never present a single number — always a range (Conservative to Stretch)
• Separate one-off savings from recurring (annualised) savings
• Assumptions not confirmed by Jacob must be flagged as "⚠ Unverified"

Step 3 — Phase Across Financial Years

Apply the following phasing logic (adjust if Jacob provides initiative-specific timelines):

• FY26: What can land this year (~9 months remaining from July 2025)
• FY27: What requires structural change (contracts, systems, policy)
• FY28: Full run-rate once changes are embedded

Step 4 — Sensitivity Table

Show outcomes at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% reduction on the cost base:

All cells formula-driven. Reference the cost base input cell — do not hardcode.

Step 5 — Generate Excel Workbook

ALWAYS invoke the davila7-xlsx skill pattern. Never use raw openpyxl without the skill.

Venv: <workspace>/.venv Logo: Template/logo.png (brand-adaptable, bring your own asset) Save to: 4 - Projects/[initiative-name]/[YYMMDD]_Scenario_Model_[name].xlsx

Workbook Structure (4 tabs)

Tab 1 — Cover

• Company logo top-left (white/no-fill header band, do not use a dark band behind logo)
• Report title, large navy text
• Synopsis: max 2 sentences — state the initiative and how the model was built. Then dot points for key findings.
• Assumptions: listed in full. Mark unverified assumptions with "⚠ Unverified".
• Tab guide: one-line description per sheet

Tab 2 — Scenario Model Columns: Cost Base | Saving % | Annual Saving $ | FY26 Phased | FY27 Phased | FY28 Phased | 3-Year Cumulative

• One row per scenario: Conservative / Base Case / Stretch
• All savings cells use formulas (e.g. =cost_base * saving_pct)
• Phased columns reference the lever type phasing percentages as named cells or a lookup
• Assumptions block below the table — label each one, mark unverified

Tab 3 — Sensitivity

• Matrix: saving % rows (5%–25%) × metric columns (Annual $, 3-Year Cumulative, % of target, % of 3-year)
• Single input cell for cost base at top of sheet — all formulas reference it
• Highlight the Base Case row

Tab 4 — Phasing

• Waterfall / build view: FY26 → FY27 → FY28 run-rate
• Split by lever type (Quick Win / Negotiation / Structural)
• Show cumulative savings build across 3 years per scenario

Formula & Quality Rules

• Use Excel formulas — =SUM(), =AVERAGE(), =cell_ref * pct_ref — never hardcode computed values
• Named ranges for key inputs: cost base, saving percentages, phasing factors
• Currency format: $#,##0 (no decimals) for all dollar cells
• Percentage format: 0% for all rate cells
• Run recalc.py to verify zero formula errors before delivery if available

Company Context

Rules

1. Always use Excel formulas — never hardcode computed values
2. Verify assumptions with Jacob before generating the workbook — ask if not provided
3. Never present a single savings number — always Conservative to Stretch range
4. Separate one-off savings from recurring (annualised) savings
5. Phase realistically — do not assume everything lands in FY26
6. Flag unverified assumptions with "⚠ Unverified" on the cover sheet
7. If cost base is unknown, ask Jacob or mark as "requires data" — do not guess
8. Append a dated entry to 4 - Projects/[initiative-name]/log.md on completion