Earnings Preview

Earnings Preview

Use this skill for pre-earnings setup analysis on an individual company.

Workflow

1. Frame the event:
   • company
   • ticker
   • earnings date or window
   • user intent
2. Gather only real evidence:
   • consensus expectations
   • prior quarter context
   • recent company developments
   • historical earnings reactions, if available
   • implied move, if available
3. Evaluate:
   • what the market expects
   • what matters most in the print or call
   • whether the bar looks high, low, or balanced
4. Build 3-4 simple scenarios:
   • beat and raise
   • beat but weak guide
   • inline / mixed
   • miss / negative guide
5. Produce a short report with:
   • expectations
   • business context
   • market pricing context
   • scenario map
   • confidence and main risk

Rules

• Default to latest available market context unless the user explicitly asks for historical-only or prior-close analysis.
• Do not invent estimates, event dates, or implied moves.
• If the user asks for current, latest, or same-day setup, verify timestamped intraday price before describing the stock reaction.
• Always include as_of timestamps with timezone for price, estimates snapshot, and options-implied move inputs.
• Never describe intraday post-earnings action from prior-close data.
• If quote timing and news timing are out of sync, state the mismatch before inference.
• Distinguish facts from interpretation.
• If guidance matters more than the headline print, say that plainly.
• Avoid pretending certainty around the immediate stock reaction.

MCP Integration

If market-data-mcp is available, use it as the default source for pre-earnings data.

• Preferred tools:
  • get_earnings_calendar
  • get_estimates_snapshot
  • get_options_chain
  • get_bars
• Always show:
  • source
  • as_of
  • stale or partial-data flags when present
• Freshness guardrails:
  • earnings date and estimates must be current snapshots
  • options data should be near real time
• On provider failure (RATE_LIMITED, UPSTREAM_UNAVAILABLE, STALE_DATA):
  • retry once if retryable
  • continue with explicit missing sections
  • never fill gaps with assumed estimates

References

• Read references/earnings-framework.md before a full earnings setup write-up.
• Use assets/earnings-report-template.md for a full report.