MEMOLA-Diagnosis

MEMOLA-Diagnosis — Terrain Assessment Skill

A focused skill for determining whether an opportunity, client, or market fits MEMOLA methodology.

1. Purpose

MEMOLA-Diagnosis answers one question:

Is this MEMOLA terrain?

Before any engagement, before any strategy, before any execution — run this diagnostic.

2. The Two Terrains

Foundation Terrain (MEMOLA Applies)

Characteristics:

• Failure mode: weathering over years
• Trust compounds and transfers
• Legitimacy > speed
• Reputation outlasts hype cycles
• History creates advantage

Examples:

• Institutions (100+ year organizations)
• Heritage brands (family businesses, artisanal producers)
• Professional services (law, medicine, consulting)
• Regional anchors (rural cooperatives, local media)
• Cultural organizations (museums, foundations)

Sprint Terrain (MEMOLA Does NOT Apply)

Characteristics:

• Failure mode: rupture
• Speed determines survival
• First-mover advantage dominates
• Network effects are the only moat
• Pivoting is the primary skill

Examples:

• Consumer apps
• Viral products
• Speculative ventures
• Growth-at-all-costs startups
• Trend-dependent businesses

3. The Five Diagnostic Questions

Question 1: Survival Horizon

Can this survive long enough for structure to matter?

Scoring:

• 10+ year likely survival → YES (1 point)
• 5-10 year horizon → PARTIAL (0.5 points)
• <5 year or uncertain → NO (0 points)

Red flags:

• Runway < 18 months
• Dependent on single funding round
• No clear path to sustainability

Question 2: Failure Mode

Does failure here look like erosion, not explosion?

Scoring:

• Gradual decline over years → YES (1 point)
• Mixed or uncertain → PARTIAL (0.5 points)
• Sudden collapse possible → NO (0 points)

Red flags:

• Single point of failure
• Platform dependency
• Regulatory cliff
• Key person risk without succession

Question 3: Legitimacy vs Speed

Is legitimacy more valuable than speed?

Scoring:

• Trust/reputation is primary asset → YES (1 point)
• Both matter equally → PARTIAL (0.5 points)
• Speed/timing is primary → NO (0 points)

Red flags:

• "We need to launch before competitor"
• "First to market wins"
• "Move fast and break things" culture

Question 4: Clarity Impact

Will clarity actually change outcomes?

Scoring:

• Strategic clarity directly improves results → YES (1 point)
• Clarity helps but isn't decisive → PARTIAL (0.5 points)
• Execution/luck matters more than strategy → NO (0 points)

Red flags:

• "We just need to execute"
• No decision-making authority
• Strategy disconnected from operations

Question 5: Virality Independence

Does this work without going viral?

Scoring:

• Success doesn't require virality → YES (1 point)
• Virality helps but isn't required → PARTIAL (0.5 points)
• Must go viral to survive → NO (0 points)

Red flags:

• Business model requires exponential growth
• No path to profitability without scale
• Depends on network effects not yet present

4. Scoring and Interpretation

Calculate Total Score

Sum all five questions (max 5 points).

Decision Thresholds

Override Conditions

Even with high scores, decline if:

• No clear decision authority exists
• Ethical concerns present
• Payment/governance structure problematic
• Scope cannot be defined

5. Diagnostic Workflow

Step 1: Gather Initial Information

Required inputs:

• Entity type (company, institution, project, individual)
• Age/history
• Business model basics
• Why they're seeking help
• Who makes decisions

Step 2: Run Five Questions

Ask each question. Score honestly. Document reasoning for each score.

Step 3: Calculate and Classify

Sum scores. Apply thresholds. Classify as Foundation, Mixed, or Sprint.

Step 4: Identify Red Flags

Review for override conditions. Note any concerns regardless of score.

Step 5: Generate Recommendation

Output format:

TERRAIN ASSESSMENT: [Entity Name]
Date: [Date]

Scores:
1. Survival Horizon: [X/1] — [reasoning]
2. Failure Mode: [X/1] — [reasoning]
3. Legitimacy vs Speed: [X/1] — [reasoning]
4. Clarity Impact: [X/1] — [reasoning]
5. Virality Independence: [X/1] — [reasoning]

Total: [X/5]
Classification: [Foundation/Mixed/Sprint]

Red Flags: [List or "None identified"]

Recommendation: [Proceed/Proceed with caution/Decline]
Reasoning: [1-2 sentences]

6. Quick Diagnostic (2-Minute Version)

When full assessment isn't possible, ask:

1. How old is this entity? (<3 years = camp signal)
2. What happens if they do nothing for 6 months? (Rupture = sprint, decline = foundation)
3. Who decides? (Committee = caution, clear authority = proceed)

If all three pass → likely foundation terrain. If any fail → run full diagnostic.

7. Common Patterns

Pattern: The Disguised Sprint

Looks like foundation (old institution) but operates like sprint (desperate for quick results, no patience for structure).

Diagnostic tell: Question 3 scores low despite institutional age.

Pattern: The Premature Foundation

Young entity trying to build foundation in sprint terrain. Good intentions, wrong environment.

Diagnostic tell: High scores on Q3-Q5 but Q1 scores low.

Pattern: The Eroding Foundation

Once-strong foundation terrain now shifting to camp (industry disruption, regulatory change).

Diagnostic tell: Historical foundation indicators but current scores declining.

8. Integration with MEMOLA Core

This skill is Workflow 0 in MEMOLA v2.0.0.

After terrain assessment passes:

• Proceed to Strategic Diagnosis (Workflow 1)
• Apply full MEMOLA method

If terrain assessment fails:

• Decline engagement
• Or recommend alternative approach outside MEMOLA

9. Skill Boundaries

MEMOLA-Diagnosis does:

• Classify terrain
• Score fit
• Recommend proceed/decline

MEMOLA-Diagnosis does NOT:

• Design strategy
• Create structures
• Execute tactics

For those, use core MEMOLA skill after diagnosis passes.

End of MEMOLA-Diagnosis SKILL.md Version 1.0.0 — January 2026