jwangkun china-break-trace
Purpose
Conduct A股财务核查 — forensic analysis to identify potential issues in Chinese financial statements.
Data Sources
Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
get_financials(ticker, "income") → Revenue, profit trends
get_financials(ticker, "balance") → Balance sheet anomalies
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow") → Cash flow quality
Secondary Sources
- 巨潮 — filings, notes
- 审计报告 — auditor opinion, emphasis of matter
- 公告 — unusual transactions
- 证监会/交易所 — inquiries, penalties
Workflow
Step 1: Revenue Quality Analysis
Revenue red flags:
| Indicator | Check | Red Flag |
|---|---|---|
| 应收账款/收入 | AR / Revenue | >40% or rising fast |
| 应收账款增速 vs 收入增速 | Growth comparison | AR growing >> Revenue |
| 经营活动现金流/净利润 | OCF / Net Income | <0.5 or negative |
| 收入确认政策 | Notes review | Aggressive recognition |
| 客户集中度 | Top customers | >30% from one customer |
| 关联交易 | Related party | High % of revenue |
Revenue quality score:
| Metric | Score (1-5) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| OCF/NI ratio | 5 = OCF >> NI | |
| AR days | 5 = low/stable | |
| Revenue concentration | 5 = diversified | |
| Growth quality | 5 = organic, recurring | |
| Cash conversion | 5 = excellent |
Step 2: Profit Quality Analysis
Profit red flags:
| Indicator | Check | Red Flag |
|---|---|---|
| 营业利润 vs 净利润 | Operating profit vs net | Large gap |
| 非经常性损益 | Non-recurring items | >20% of profit |
| 政府补助 | Government subsidies | High % of profit |
| 资产减值 | Impairments | Irregular timing |
| 投资收益 | Investment income | Unsustainable |
| 毛利率趋势 | Gross margin | Unexplained changes |
Profit decomposition:
净利润 = 营业利润 + 营业外收支 - 所得税
分析重点:
1. 营业利润占比 (营业利润/净利润): 应>80%
2. 非经常性损益: 识别一次性项目
3. 政府补助依赖度: 补助/净利润
4. 减值损失波动: 是否平滑利润?
Step 3: Cash Flow Quality
Cash flow analysis:
| Metric | Formula | Healthy | Concern |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCF/NI | OCF / Net Income | >1 | <0.5 |
| FCF | OCF - CapEx | Positive | Negative |
| OCF/Revenue | OCF / Revenue | >5% | <0% |
| 投资活动现金流 | Investing CF | Outflows (growth) | Large inflows (asset sales?) |
Cash flow quality score:
| Indicator | Healthy | Warning |
|---|---|---|
| OCF consistently positive | ✓ | Negative OCF |
| OCF tracks NI | ✓ | Large divergence |
| CapEx sustainable | ✓ | CapEx >> OCF |
| No frequent asset sales | ✓ | Asset disposal income |
Step 4: Balance Sheet Anomalies
Balance sheet checks:
| Area | Red Flags |
|---|---|
| 货币资金 | Large cash + high debt (possible restriction) |
| 应收账款 | Rapid growth, aging issues |
| 其他应收款 | Unusually large (possible tunneling) |
| 存货 | Rapid growth, no explanation |
| 在建工程 | Never completed (capitalized costs?) |
| 商誉 | High % of equity (>30%) |
| 长期待摊费用 | Unusually large |
| 负债 | Off-balance sheet items |
Specific balance sheet ratios:
| Ratio | Formula | Concern |
|---|---|---|
| 有息负债/净资产 | Interest-bearing debt / Equity | >100% |
| 货币资金/有息负债 | Cash / Interest-bearing debt | <0.3 |
| 商誉/净资产 | Goodwill / Equity | >30% |
| 其他应收款/资产 | Other receivables / Total assets | >5% |
| 存货周转天数 | Inventory days | Sudden increase |
Step 5: Related Party Analysis
Related party red flags:
| Indicator | Check |
|---|---|
| 关联交易金额 | % of revenue/costs |
| 关联交易定价 | Arm's length? |
| 关联应收应付 | Balances with related parties |
| 资金占用 | Funds tied up with related parties |
| 担保 | Guarantees for related parties |
Common tunneling mechanisms:
- 预付账款 to related parties
- 其他应收款 from related parties
- 资金拆借 without interest
- Asset sales to related parties at non-arm's length prices
- 担保 for related party debt
Step 6: Earnings Management Detection
Earnings management indicators:
| Method | Detection |
|---|---|
| 费用资本化 | CapEx unusual, D&A low |
| 收入提前确认 | AR rising, 预收账款 falling |
| 费用延后确认 | AP falling, accrued expenses low |
| 减值选择性计提 | Timing of impairments |
| 会计政策变更 | Policy change benefits |
| 估计变更 | Reserve changes |
Beneish M-Score (adapted for China):
| Variable | Calculation |
|---|---|
| DSRI | Days sales in receivables change |
| GMI | Gross margin deterioration |
| AQI | Asset quality index |
| SGI | Sales growth index |
| DEPI | Depreciation index |
| SGAI | SG&A index |
| LVGI | Leverage index |
| TATA | Total accruals / Total assets |
Step 7: Auditor & Filing Analysis
Audit report review:
| Item | Review |
|---|---|
| 审计意见 | Standard / Modified / Adverse |
| 强调事项段 | Any emphasis of matter? |
| 关键审计事项 | Key audit matters |
| 审计师变更 | Recent change? |
| 审计费用 | Unusual changes? |
Filing review:
- 年报 vs 中报 consistency
- Notes completeness
- Segment disclosures | Related party disclosures | Commitments and contingencies
Step 8: Regulatory Signals
Regulatory red flags:
| Source | Signals |
|---|---|
| 交易所问询函 | Inquiry letters |
| 证监会关注函 | Regulatory attention |
| 行政处罚 | Fines, penalties |
| 交易所纪律处分 | Disciplinary actions |
| 投资者诉讼 | Shareholder lawsuits |
Common A-share Fraud Patterns
| Pattern | Description | Detection |
|---|---|---|
| 虚增收入 | Fictitious revenue | AR anomaly, tax mismatch |
| 虚减成本 | Understate costs | Margin anomaly |
| 关联交易非关联化 | Related party disguised | Customer/supplier analysis |
| 资金循环 | Round-tripping | Cash flow analysis |
| 资产置换 | Asset swapping | Unusual asset changes |
| 会计估计操纵 | Estimate manipulation | Reserve changes |
Quality Checks
Before delivering report:
- All red flags investigated
- Evidence documented
- Severity assessed
- Conclusions supported
- Regulatory signals checked
- Report structured clearly
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var
IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODEto control data source preference.ifind-only(strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback(default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only