jwangkun china-dcf
Data Sources (Multi-Tier)
Tier 0 — 万得 Wind（最全面付费数据）
- 覆盖：A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析（44个工具）
- MCP 服务：
wind-mcp（需WIND_API_KEY密钥，以ak_开头） - 优势：全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
- 密钥申请：https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home
Tier 1 — 同花顺 iFind（付费精确数据）
ifind_get_stock_financials(ticker, ...) -> Historical financials
ifind_get_stock_info(ticker) -> Market data, shares outstanding
ifind_get_risk_indicators(ticker) -> Beta, volatility for WACC
Tier 2 - AkShare (free, open-source, fallback)
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual") -> Historical P and L
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "annual") -> Historical BS
get_quote(ticker) -> Market cap, price
Data source mode switch: When env var
IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE=ifind-only, use iFind exclusively.
wind-only: Wind only, error if unavailablewind-fallback: Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare
Key differences from US-market DCF
| Parameter | US DCF Convention | China DCF Convention |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | US 10Y Treasury | China 10Y CGB (国债收益率, ~2.5-3.5%) |
| Equity risk premium | ~5-6% (historical US) | ~6-8% (China A-share ERP) |
| Tax rate | US corporate 21% | China corporate 25% (高新技术企业 15%) |
| Terminal growth | US GDP growth (~2%) | China GDP growth (~4-5%) |
| Currency | USD | CNY |
| Reporting standard | US GAAP / IFRS | CAS (中国会计准则) |
Workflow
Step 1: Pull financials
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual") → last 5 years
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "annual")
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "annual")
Step 2: Get market data
get_quote(ticker) → price, market cap, PE, PB
get_index_data("000001") → benchmark return for beta estimation
Step 3: Build projections
- Project revenue using historical growth rates adjusted for China macro outlook
- Assume 65-75% operating margin for 白酒 / high-margin sectors
- Assume 15-25% operating margin for manufacturing
- CapEx as % of revenue: check historical from cashflow statement
Step 4: Compute WACC
WACC = E/(D+E) * Ke + D/(D+E) * Kd * (1 - tax_rate)
Ke = Rf + β * ERP
Rf = China 10Y CGB yield (use ak.bond_zh_us_rate() or web search for latest)
β = regression on 上证指数 returns (or use comparable firm beta)
ERP = 6-8% (China-specific equity risk premium)
Kd = China 5Y corporate bond yield + credit spread
Step 5: Terminal value
Terminal Value = FCF_(n+1) / (WACC - g)
g = 3-4% for mature Chinese companies (China nominal GDP growth)
Notes
- Chinese fiscal year ends December 31 for most companies
- 北向资金 (Northbound flow) data can be used as sentiment indicator
- 商誉 (goodwill) impairments are common in China M&A — flag if goodwill > 30% of equity
- Some Chinese financial statements are reported in 千元 (thousands of CNY) vs 元 — check the unit