jwangkun china-dcf-model
Note: This skill is an alias/wrapper for
china-dcf. For full DCF modeling guidance, seechina-dcf/SKILL.md.
Purpose
Provide access to A股DCF估值 — discounted cash flow valuation adapted for Chinese market parameters.
Quick Reference
Core DCF Parameters (China)
| Parameter | Typical Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | 2.0-3.0% | China 10Y CGB yield |
| Equity risk premium | 6-8% | China-specific |
| Beta | 0.8-1.2 | A-share historical |
| Cost of debt | 3-6% | China corporate bond yields |
| Terminal growth | 3-4% | China GDP long-term |
| Tax rate | 25% (15% for 高新) | CAS |
Key Differences from US DCF
| Aspect | US | China (A-share) |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | UST 10Y | China 10Y CGB |
| ERP | 5-6% | 6-8% (higher for EM) |
| Terminal growth | 2-3% | 3-4% |
| Tax rate | 21% (federal) | 25% (15% for 高新) |
| Currency | USD | CNY |
| Revenue units | $M | 万元 / 亿元 |
Quick Workflow
- Project FCF — 5-year explicit period
- Calculate WACC — Use China parameters
- Discount FCF — PV of explicit period
- Terminal value — Gordon growth or exit multiple
- Enterprise value — Sum of PVs
- Equity value — EV - Net debt + Minority interest
- Value per share — Equity value / Shares
Common Pitfalls
| Pitfall | China-Specific Fix |
|---|---|
| Using US risk-free rate | Use China 10Y CGB |
| Wrong tax rate | Verify 高新 enterprise status |
| Revenue in USD | Convert to CNY |
| Ignoring 增值税 | Revenue should be net of VAT |
| Western terminal growth | Use 3-4% for China |
For Full Details
See: china-dcf/SKILL.md
Quality Checks
- All parameters China-appropriate
- FCF projections reasonable
- WACC components sourced
- Terminal growth < GDP growth
- Sensitivity analysis included