jwangkun china-earnings-analysis
Purpose
Create professional A股季度/年度业绩点评报告, analyzing results for companies already under coverage. Follow Chinese sell-side research standards (中金、中信、华泰 format).
Data Sources
Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly") → 利润表 (季度)
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual") → 利润表 (年度)
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly") → 资产负债表
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → 现金流量表
get_quote(ticker) → 实时行情, PE/PB
get_historical_data(ticker) → 股价表现
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}") → 相关新闻
Secondary Sources
- 巨潮资讯 (cninfo.com.cn) — 正式财报 PDF (mandatory)
- 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易 — 投资者关系 Q&A
- 公司官网 — 业绩说明会 (earnings call) 材料
- 慧博投研 / 同花顺 iFinD — 一致预期数据
- Wind / Choice — institutional consensus (if available)
Key Financial Terms (Chinese → English)
| Chinese | English | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 营业收入 | Revenue | Top-line, net of VAT |
| 营业成本 | COGS | Cost of goods sold |
| 毛利率 | Gross margin | 营业利润/营业收入 |
| 营业利润 | Operating profit | 核心经营利润 |
| 归母净利润 | Net income attributable to parent | Key metric for A-share coverage |
| 扣非净利润 | Net income (non-GAAP adj.) | Deducts one-time items |
| 净利润 | Net income | May include minority interest |
| 经营活动现金流 | Operating CF | 经营现金流 |
| 资本支出 | CapEx | 购建固定资产 |
| 有息负债 | Interest-bearing debt | 有息负债 |
| 每股收益 (EPS) | Earnings per share | 基本EPS / 稀释EPS |
Workflow
Step 1: Pull the Earnings Print
Data to collect:
- Current quarter / full year income statement (from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare)
- Balance sheet and cash flow statement
- Management commentary / 业绩说明会 transcript
- Company press release (投资者关系活动记录表)
Verify against:
- Previous quarter guidance (管理层指引)
- Consensus estimates (一致预期) if available
Step 2: Build the Variance Table
Required columns:
| Item | 实际 (Actual) | 一致预期 (Consensus) | 上次预测 (Prior) | 同比 (YoY) | 环比 (QoQ) | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 营业收入 | ||||||
| 毛利率 | ||||||
| 归母净利润 | ||||||
| EPS (基本) | ||||||
| 经营现金流 |
Surprise calculation:
- Beat/Miss % = (Actual - Consensus) / |Consensus| × 100%
- Flag:
- 大幅超预期: >+10%
- 符合预期: -10% to +10%
- 低于预期: <-10%
Consensus sources (in priority order):
- Wind / Choice 一致预期
- 慧博投研 盈利预测
- 同花顺 iFinD 盈利预测
- 分析师预测调研 (from 巨潮 业绩预告)
- If unavailable, note
[UNSOURCED]
Step 3: Analyze Key Drivers
Revenue:
- Volume vs price decomposition
- Segment revenue breakdown (if disclosed)
- New product / customer contribution
- Industry volume trends
Margins:
- 毛利率变化: input cost (原材料), pricing power, product mix
- 费用率变化: 费用率 = 费用 / 营业收入
- 营业利润率 trends
Balance Sheet:
- 应收账款增速 vs 收入增速
- 存货积压 risk
- 有息负债 changes
- 商誉 level (flag impairment risk)
Cash Flow:
- 经营现金流 vs 净利润 (quality of earnings)
- 资本支出 intensity
- Free cash flow = 经营CF - 资本支出
Step 4: Update Estimates
Forward estimates adjustment:
Based on current quarter results and management guidance:
- Update FY20XXE revenue, margins, EPS
- Adjust Q2-Q4 quarterly estimates
- Update annual consensus if material change
- Flag if guidance was provided
Estimate change table:
| Item | Old Estimate | New Estimate | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY Revenue | ||||
| FY Net Income | ||||
| FY EPS |
Step 5: Valuation Update
Current valuation metrics:
- Current stock price + daily change
- PE (动 / 静), PB, PS
- EV/EBITDA (if applicable)
- 52-week high/low, YTD performance
- Relative to sector median
Post-earnings re-rating assessment:
- Did multiple expand/contract?
- Is valuation now cheap/expensive vs history and peers?
- 目标价 adjustment rationale
Step 6: Draft the Report
Standard A-share earnings update structure:
标题：[公司名称]（[代码]）[Q20XX / FY20XX] 业绩点评：[超预期/符合预期/低于预期]
一、业绩概览
- 核心数据一览表
- 同比/环比增速
- 超出/低于一致预期幅度
二、收入分析
- 收入增速分解
- 分业务/分地区收入
- 量价分析
三、利润分析
- 毛利率变化及原因
- 费用率分析
- 净利润增速分解
四、资产负债表
- 应收账款
- 存货
- 有息负债
- 其他关注点
五、现金流量
- 经营现金流
- 资本支出
- 自由现金流
六、估值与投资建议
- 当前估值水平
- 目标价调整
- 评级维持/调整
七、风险提示
- 行业政策风险
- 原材料价格波动
- 竞争加剧
- 商誉减值风险
Step 7: Quality Check
Before delivering:
- All numbers sourced from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare
- Variance table complete with actual/consensus/prior
- Beat/miss flagged with % surprise
- Key drivers identified and explained
- Forward estimates updated
- Valuation metrics current
- Risk factors listed (China-specific)
- Citations complete; unsourced items marked
[UNSOURCED]
China-Specific Elements
Earnings Call (业绩说明会)
- Schedule: typically same day or next trading day after earnings release
- Location: 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易
- Format: online video/audio + text Q&A
- Key questions often from retail investors
Regulatory Requirements
- 业绩预告 (earnings preview): required if variance >50%
- 业绩快报 (earnings flash): optional, typically 10 days before full report
- Full annual report: 4 months after year-end
- Semi-annual report: 2 months after H1
- Quarterly report: 1 month after quarter-end
Accounting Nuances
- 扣非净利润 (non-GAAP net income) widely used by analysts
- 其他收益 (other income) can mask core operating performance
- 政府补助 (government subsidies) significant for some sectors
- 资产减值损失 (asset impairment) — flag if unexpectedly large
- 股份支付 (share-based compensation) — expensed immediately under CAS
Market Context
- 涨跌停 limits affect post-earnings price action (±10% main board, ±20% 创业板/科创板)
- Northbound flow (北向资金) may react strongly to earnings
- Retail investor participation high → earnings can cause outsized moves
Source Citations
Format for data citations:
Source: 巨潮资讯, [Company] 2024 年年度报告, p.[X], [URL if applicable]
Source: iFind ifind_get_stock_financials / AkShare get_financials(ticker="{{TICKER}}", statement_type="income", period="quarterly")
Source: 慧博投研, [Company] 盈利预测, accessed [Date]
Source: 同花顺 iFinD, 一致预期数据, accessed [Date]
For figures not from primary sources:
[UNSOURCED] — estimate based on [rationale]
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var
IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODEto control data source preference.
ifind-only(strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback(default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only