jwangkun china-roll-forward
Purpose
Roll forward A股财务模型 — update financial models for new reporting periods.
Data Sources
Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
get_financials(ticker, "income") → Latest actuals
get_financials(ticker, "balance") → Latest BS
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow") → Latest CF
Secondary Sources
- 巨潮 — latest filings
- 业绩预告 — early guidance
- 券商研报 — updated estimates
Workflow
Step 1: Identify New Period
Period identification:
| Period Type | Frequency | Typical Timing |
|---|---|---|
| 一季报 (Q1) | Quarterly | April 30 deadline |
| 中报 (H1) | Semi-annual | August 31 deadline |
| 三季报 (Q3) | Quarterly | October 31 deadline |
| 年报 (Annual) | Annual | April 30 deadline |
Calendar:
Q1: 1月1日 - 3月31日 → 披露截止 4月30日
H1: 1月1日 - 6月30日 → 披露截止 8月31日
Q3: 1月1日 - 9月30日 → 披露截止 10月31日
FY: 1月1日 - 12月31日 → 披露截止 次年4月30日
Step 2: Pull Latest Actuals
Data to pull:
| Statement | Key Line Items |
|---|---|
| 利润表 | Revenue, gross profit, operating profit, net income |
| 资产负债表 | Cash, AR, inventory, PPE, debt, equity |
| 现金流量表 | OCF, investing CF, financing CF |
| 附注 | Segment data, related party, provisions |
Step 3: Update Model Structure
Model update checklist:
| Section | Action |
|---|---|
| Historicals | Replace with latest actuals |
| QTD data | Add new period actuals |
| YTD data | Update year-to-date |
| LTM data | Recalculate LTM |
| Growth rates | Recalculate YoY/QoQ |
| Ratios | Recalculate all ratios |
| Graphs | Update charts |
Step 4: Validate Actuals
Actuals validation:
| Check | Method |
|---|---|
| 报表平衡 | Assets = Liabilities + Equity |
| 勾稽关系 | CF = ΔCash |
| 季度加总 | Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = Annual |
| 同比计算 | (Current - Prior) / Prior |
| 环比率 | (Current - Qprior) / Qprior |
Common CAS adjustments:
- 增值税处理 (Revenue net of VAT)
- 政府补助分类 (Operating vs non-operating)
- 研发费用 (Separate from G&A)
- 信用减值损失 (CAS 22 expected credit loss)
Step 5: Update Forecasts
Forecast update logic:
| Scenario | Action |
|---|---|
| In-line | No change to full-year forecast |
| Beat | Assess if full-year guidance should be raised |
| Miss | Assess if full-year guidance should be lowered |
| Guidance change | Update model for management guidance |
Forecast roll-forward:
| Period | Prior | Actual | New Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | ||||
| Q2 | ||||
| Q3 | ||||
| Q4 | ||||
| Full year |
Step 6: Update Valuation
Valuation update:
| Input | Prior | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | |||
| Shares outstanding | |||
| Market cap | |||
| P/E (NTM) | |||
| P/B | |||
| EV/EBITDA | |||
| Target price | |||
| Upside/downside |
Step 7: Update Narrative
Narrative updates:
| Section | Update |
|---|---|
| Investment thesis | Review and update |
| Key drivers | Reflect latest results |
| Catalysts | Update timeline |
| Risks | Review and update |
| Target price | Update with new base |
Step 8: Quality Checks
Roll-forward QC:
| Check | Pass Criteria |
|---|---|
| All actuals pulled | All periods updated |
| Sum checks pass | Quarterly = Annual |
| Ratios recalculated | All formulas updated |
| Graphs updated | All charts reflect new data |
| Valuation current | Target price updated |
| No hardcodes | All cells formula-driven |
| CAS compliant | Chinese conventions applied |
China-Specific Roll-Forward Considerations
Reporting Calendar
| Filing | Deadline | Typical Release |
|---|---|---|
| 业绩预告 (optional) | Before filing | 10-15 days before |
| 一季报 | April 30 | April |
| 中报 | August 31 | August |
| 三季报 | October 31 | October |
| 年报 | April 30 | Late March-April |
Common Update Triggers
| Trigger | Action |
|---|---|
| Scheduled earnings | Full model update |
| 业绩预告 | Preliminary forecast update |
| Guidance change | Update full-year forecast |
| M&A announcement | Model for transaction impact |
| Policy change | Sector/company impact |
| Analyst day | Update long-term assumptions |
Quality Checks
Before completing:
- Latest actuals pulled and entered
- All historical periods updated
- Forecasts rolled forward
- Valuation updated
- Sum checks pass
- No hardcodes introduced
- Documentation updated
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var
IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODEto control data source preference.ifind-only(strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback(default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only