China Variance Commentary

china-variance-commentary

Purpose

Write professional A股业绩点评 — structured variance commentary on Chinese company financial results.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income")     → Revenue, profit data
get_financials(ticker, "balance")    → Balance sheet data
get_quote(ticker)                    → Market context

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮 — earnings releases
• 券商研报 — consensus estimates
• 慧博 / 同花顺 — 一致预期

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Actuals and Estimates

Data collection:

Step 2: Variance Analysis

Variance table:

Variance classification:

Step 3: Driver Analysis

Key drivers decomposition:

Revenue drivers:

收入变动 = 量增 + 价增 + 产品结构 + 收购/处置

分解:
1. 销量变化: +X% (驱动因素)
2. 价格变化: +X% (提价/促销)
3. 产品组合: +X% (高毛利产品占比提升)
4. 其他: +X% (并表/汇率)

Margin drivers:

毛利率变动 = 原材料成本 + 人工成本 + 制造费用 + 产品结构

分解:
1. 原材料: -X ppts (价格上涨/下降)
2. 人工: +X ppts (效率提升/人工成本上涨)
3. 制造费用: +X ppts (产能利用率)
4. 产品结构: +X ppts (高毛利产品占比)
5. 其他: X ppts

Net profit bridge:

归母净利润变动
├── 营业收入影响: +¥XX万
├── 毛利率影响: +¥XX万
├── 费用率影响: +¥XX万
│   ├── 销售费用: -¥XX万
│   ├── 管理费用: +¥XX万
│   └── 研发费用: +¥XX万
├── 其他收益影响: +¥XX万
├── 投资收益影响: +¥XX万
├── 减值损失影响: -¥XX万
├── 营业外收支影响: +¥XX万
├── 所得税影响: -¥XX万
└── 归母净利润变动: +¥XX万

Step 4: Segment Commentary

By segment:

By geography:

Step 5: Balance Sheet Commentary

Key BS changes:

Step 6: Cash Flow Commentary

Cash flow analysis:

Key observations:

• OCF vs Net income comparison
• CapEx intensity
• Dividend payment
• Debt activity

Step 7: Forward-Looking Commentary

Guidance and outlook:

Step 8: Write the Commentary

Standard format (业绩点评):

【业绩点评】[Company] [Period] [Beat/Miss/In-line]

核心结论:
- 营收XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
- 归母净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
- 扣非净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%

要点:
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]

详细分析:

一、营业收入
   [Revenue commentary with drivers]

二、盈利能力
   [Margin analysis]

三、费用分析
   [Expense commentary]

四、资产负债表
   [Key BS changes]

五、现金流量
   [CF commentary]

六、展望
   [Forward-looking]

风险提示:
- [Key risks]

风险提示: 本内容仅供研究参考, 不构成投资建议。

China-Specific Commentary Considerations

Key Metrics to Highlight

Common Earnings Themes

Language Conventions

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

• All actuals verified from source
• Consensus figures cited
• Variances calculated correctly
• Drivers identified and explained
• Balance sheet / CF covered
• Forward outlook included
• Risks highlighted
• Chinese terminology correct

  Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

  • ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
  • ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
  • akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only