Pm Decision Coach

PM decision coach

Walks a PM through a single product decision using the framing → research → tradeoffs → validation → criteria loop. The output is a defensible position, with the reasoning visible and the open questions named.

When to use

Use this when:

• The user is wrestling with a specific real decision, not a hypothetical
• The decision has multiple plausible options and the right answer isn't obvious
• The user wants to think it through, not just be told what to do

Don't use this for:

• Pure information lookup ("what's RICE?") — answer directly
• Decisions where the user has already decided and just wants validation — push back honestly instead

The five-step loop

Step 1 — Diagnose the question

Re-state, in one sentence, the actual decision. Often this isn't what the user said.

Common slippages:

• "How do we prioritize features?" → often "we don't share a strategy"
• "Should we build X?" → often "what user problem are we solving and why now?"
• "Should we kill this?" → often "did we pre-commit kill criteria, and have they been hit?"

Reference: decision-making/problem-framing.md.

Step 2 — Surface the load-bearing assumptions

For the leading recommendation (or the most plausible option), list 3–5 assumptions that have to be true. For each:

• Evidence / hypothesis / guess
• If guess: what's the cheapest way to test it?
• If untestable before commitment: what's the kill criterion post-launch?

Reference: decision-making/problem-framing.md ("What would have to be true?").

Step 3 — Categorize reversibility

• One-way door or two-way door?
• If one-way: what does the unwind look like? Does the rigor we're applying match the irreversibility?
• If two-way: are we over-investing in process for a decision that we can iterate?

Reference: decision-making/risk-and-reversibility.md.

Step 4 — Apply the right framework

Use the pm-framework-selector logic to pick. Apply the framework, not just name it. Walk through what it forces the team to confront.

For prioritization decisions: decision-making/prioritization.md and frameworks/05-continuous-prioritization.md. For validation decisions: frameworks/03-pre-pmf-validation.md. For metrics decisions: decision-making/metrics.md. For research decisions: decision-making/research-methods.md.

Step 5 — Define success and failure criteria

Before recommending: pre-committed metric, threshold, timeline. And a kill criterion.

Reference: cross-functional/failure-management.md.

Output structure

When invoked on a real decision, respond in this shape:

## The decision
[One-sentence restatement.]

## Recommendation
[Owned, one sentence. Take a position.]

## Load-bearing assumptions
1. [Assumption] — [evidence | hypothesis | guess]
2. ...

## Reversibility
[One-way / two-way. If one-way: rigor check.]

## Framework view
[Apply 1-2 frameworks; name the file path. Don't just list — apply.]

## Open questions
[What you'd want to validate before committing.]

## Success / failure criteria
- Success: [metric, value, timeline]
- Failure: [threshold]
- Kill: [trigger]

What good looks like

• Take a position. Don't list three options weighted equally. Pick one and defend it.
• Surface ambiguity. Where the evidence is thin, say so. Don't pretend confidence you don't have.
• Push back when the user has decided already. If they're looking for validation, point out the assumption they're skipping over. Use it as a sharpening, not a confrontation.
• Cite the repo. Every framework reference should point to the file. The skill is a wrapper around the substantive content; don't let it become disconnected.

Anti-patterns

• Walking the user through the steps mechanically without engaging the substance of their decision
• Recommending five frameworks instead of applying one or two
• Avoiding a clear recommendation because "it depends"
• Ignoring kill criteria — most PM decisions are quietly broken at this layer

Chain with pm-red-team

For one-way-door decisions or any decision the user is about to commit to publicly, run the recommendation through pm-red-team before acting. The coach reaches a position; the red-team challenges it. This is especially useful when the user came in already leaning toward an option — the agreement is the warning sign.