kbarbel640-del Decision Support System
Business Case
Problem Statement
Construction decision-making challenges:
- Multiple conflicting criteria
- Risk and uncertainty
- Time pressure for decisions
- Lack of structured analysis
Solution
Multi-criteria decision support system for construction projects with weighted scoring, risk analysis, and scenario comparison.
Technical Implementation
import pandas as pd
from typing import Dict, Any, List, Optional, Callable
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import date, datetime
from enum import Enum
import math
class DecisionType(Enum):
VENDOR_SELECTION = "vendor_selection"
METHOD_SELECTION = "method_selection"
SCHEDULE_OPTION = "schedule_option"
DESIGN_ALTERNATIVE = "design_alternative"
RISK_RESPONSE = "risk_response"
RESOURCE_ALLOCATION = "resource_allocation"
class CriterionType(Enum):
COST = "cost"
TIME = "time"
QUALITY = "quality"
SAFETY = "safety"
RISK = "risk"
SUSTAINABILITY = "sustainability"
@dataclass
class Criterion:
criterion_id: str
name: str
criterion_type: CriterionType
weight: float # 0-1
higher_is_better: bool = True
unit: str = ""
@dataclass
class Alternative:
alternative_id: str
name: str
description: str
scores: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict)
risks: List[str] = field(default_factory=list)
@dataclass
class DecisionResult:
alternative_id: str
weighted_score: float
rank: int
strengths: List[str]
weaknesses: List[str]
class DecisionSupportSystem:
"""Multi-criteria decision support for construction projects."""
def __init__(self, project_name: str):
self.project_name = project_name
self.criteria: Dict[str, Criterion] = {}
self.alternatives: Dict[str, Alternative] = {}
self.decision_type: DecisionType = DecisionType.METHOD_SELECTION
def set_decision_type(self, decision_type: DecisionType):
"""Set the type of decision being made."""
self.decision_type = decision_type
def add_criterion(self, criterion: Criterion):
"""Add evaluation criterion."""
self.criteria[criterion.criterion_id] = criterion
def add_standard_criteria(self, decision_type: DecisionType = None):
"""Add standard criteria based on decision type."""
dt = decision_type or self.decision_type
if dt == DecisionType.VENDOR_SELECTION:
criteria = [
Criterion("price", "Price", CriterionType.COST, 0.30, False, "$"),
Criterion("quality", "Quality Rating", CriterionType.QUALITY, 0.25, True, "1-10"),
Criterion("delivery", "Delivery Time", CriterionType.TIME, 0.20, False, "days"),
Criterion("experience", "Experience", CriterionType.QUALITY, 0.15, True, "years"),
Criterion("safety", "Safety Record", CriterionType.SAFETY, 0.10, True, "score"),
]
elif dt == DecisionType.METHOD_SELECTION:
criteria = [
Criterion("cost", "Total Cost", CriterionType.COST, 0.25, False, "$"),
Criterion("duration", "Duration", CriterionType.TIME, 0.25, False, "days"),
Criterion("quality", "Quality", CriterionType.QUALITY, 0.20, True, "score"),
Criterion("risk", "Risk Level", CriterionType.RISK, 0.15, False, "1-5"),
Criterion("sustainability", "Sustainability", CriterionType.SUSTAINABILITY, 0.15, True, "score"),
]
elif dt == DecisionType.RISK_RESPONSE:
criteria = [
Criterion("effectiveness", "Effectiveness", CriterionType.QUALITY, 0.35, True, "%"),
Criterion("cost", "Implementation Cost", CriterionType.COST, 0.25, False, "$"),
Criterion("time", "Implementation Time", CriterionType.TIME, 0.20, False, "days"),
Criterion("feasibility", "Feasibility", CriterionType.QUALITY, 0.20, True, "1-10"),
]
else:
criteria = [
Criterion("cost", "Cost", CriterionType.COST, 0.30, False, "$"),
Criterion("time", "Time", CriterionType.TIME, 0.25, False, "days"),
Criterion("quality", "Quality", CriterionType.QUALITY, 0.25, True, "score"),
Criterion("risk", "Risk", CriterionType.RISK, 0.20, False, "score"),
]
for c in criteria:
self.add_criterion(c)
def add_alternative(self, alternative: Alternative):
"""Add decision alternative."""
self.alternatives[alternative.alternative_id] = alternative
def normalize_scores(self) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]:
"""Normalize scores to 0-1 scale."""
normalized = {}
for criterion_id, criterion in self.criteria.items():
values = [alt.scores.get(criterion_id, 0) for alt in self.alternatives.values()]
if not values or max(values) == min(values):
for alt_id in self.alternatives:
if alt_id not in normalized:
normalized[alt_id] = {}
normalized[alt_id][criterion_id] = 0.5
continue
min_val, max_val = min(values), max(values)
range_val = max_val - min_val
for alt_id, alt in self.alternatives.items():
if alt_id not in normalized:
normalized[alt_id] = {}
raw_score = alt.scores.get(criterion_id, 0)
# Normalize
norm_score = (raw_score - min_val) / range_val if range_val > 0 else 0.5
# Invert if lower is better
if not criterion.higher_is_better:
norm_score = 1 - norm_score
normalized[alt_id][criterion_id] = round(norm_score, 4)
return normalized
def calculate_weighted_scores(self) -> Dict[str, float]:
"""Calculate weighted scores for all alternatives."""
normalized = self.normalize_scores()
weighted = {}
for alt_id, scores in normalized.items():
total = 0
for criterion_id, norm_score in scores.items():
weight = self.criteria[criterion_id].weight
total += norm_score * weight
weighted[alt_id] = round(total, 4)
return weighted
def analyze_alternatives(self) -> List[DecisionResult]:
"""Analyze and rank all alternatives."""
weighted_scores = self.calculate_weighted_scores()
normalized = self.normalize_scores()
# Rank alternatives
ranked = sorted(weighted_scores.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
results = []
for rank, (alt_id, score) in enumerate(ranked, 1):
alt = self.alternatives[alt_id]
# Identify strengths (top 2 criteria)
strengths = []
weaknesses = []
alt_scores = [(cid, normalized[alt_id][cid]) for cid in self.criteria]
alt_scores_sorted = sorted(alt_scores, key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
for cid, nscore in alt_scores_sorted[:2]:
if nscore >= 0.6:
strengths.append(f"{self.criteria[cid].name}: {nscore:.2f}")
for cid, nscore in alt_scores_sorted[-2:]:
if nscore <= 0.4:
weaknesses.append(f"{self.criteria[cid].name}: {nscore:.2f}")
results.append(DecisionResult(
alternative_id=alt_id,
weighted_score=score,
rank=rank,
strengths=strengths,
weaknesses=weaknesses
))
return results
def get_recommendation(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Get decision recommendation."""
results = self.analyze_alternatives()
if not results:
return {"error": "No alternatives to analyze"}
best = results[0]
best_alt = self.alternatives[best.alternative_id]
# Calculate confidence
if len(results) > 1:
score_gap = best.weighted_score - results[1].weighted_score
confidence = min(100, int(score_gap * 200 + 50))
else:
confidence = 100
return {
'project': self.project_name,
'decision_type': self.decision_type.value,
'recommendation': {
'alternative': best_alt.name,
'alternative_id': best.alternative_id,
'score': best.weighted_score,
'confidence': confidence,
'strengths': best.strengths,
'weaknesses': best.weaknesses
},
'all_rankings': [
{
'rank': r.rank,
'alternative': self.alternatives[r.alternative_id].name,
'score': r.weighted_score
}
for r in results
],
'criteria_weights': {
c.name: c.weight for c in self.criteria.values()
}
}
def sensitivity_analysis(self, criterion_id: str,
weight_range: tuple = (0.0, 0.5, 0.1)) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Perform sensitivity analysis on criterion weight."""
original_weight = self.criteria[criterion_id].weight
results = []
start, end, step = weight_range
weight = start
while weight <= end:
# Adjust weight
self.criteria[criterion_id].weight = weight
# Recalculate
scores = self.calculate_weighted_scores()
ranked = sorted(scores.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
results.append({
'weight': round(weight, 2),
'rankings': [
{'alternative': self.alternatives[alt_id].name, 'score': score}
for alt_id, score in ranked
]
})
weight += step
# Restore original
self.criteria[criterion_id].weight = original_weight
return {
'criterion': self.criteria[criterion_id].name,
'original_weight': original_weight,
'analysis': results
}
def export_to_excel(self, output_path: str) -> str:
"""Export decision analysis to Excel."""
with pd.ExcelWriter(output_path, engine='openpyxl') as writer:
# Recommendation
rec = self.get_recommendation()
rec_df = pd.DataFrame([{
'Project': rec['project'],
'Decision Type': rec['decision_type'],
'Recommended Alternative': rec['recommendation']['alternative'],
'Score': rec['recommendation']['score'],
'Confidence %': rec['recommendation']['confidence']
}])
rec_df.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='Recommendation', index=False)
# All rankings
rankings_df = pd.DataFrame(rec['all_rankings'])
rankings_df.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='Rankings', index=False)
# Detailed scores
normalized = self.normalize_scores()
details = []
for alt_id, alt in self.alternatives.items():
row = {'Alternative': alt.name}
for cid, criterion in self.criteria.items():
row[f"{criterion.name} (Raw)"] = alt.scores.get(cid, 0)
row[f"{criterion.name} (Norm)"] = normalized[alt_id].get(cid, 0)
details.append(row)
details_df = pd.DataFrame(details)
details_df.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='Detailed Scores', index=False)
# Criteria
criteria_df = pd.DataFrame([{
'Criterion': c.name,
'Type': c.criterion_type.value,
'Weight': c.weight,
'Higher is Better': c.higher_is_better,
'Unit': c.unit
} for c in self.criteria.values()])
criteria_df.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='Criteria', index=False)
return output_path
Quick Start
# Create decision support system
dss = DecisionSupportSystem("Office Building A")
dss.set_decision_type(DecisionType.VENDOR_SELECTION)
# Add standard criteria
dss.add_standard_criteria()
# Add alternatives
dss.add_alternative(Alternative(
"V1", "Contractor A", "Large regional contractor",
scores={"price": 500000, "quality": 8, "delivery": 90, "experience": 15, "safety": 9}
))
dss.add_alternative(Alternative(
"V2", "Contractor B", "Local contractor",
scores={"price": 450000, "quality": 7, "delivery": 120, "experience": 8, "safety": 8}
))
dss.add_alternative(Alternative(
"V3", "Contractor C", "National contractor",
scores={"price": 600000, "quality": 9, "delivery": 75, "experience": 25, "safety": 10}
))
# Get recommendation
recommendation = dss.get_recommendation()
print(f"Recommended: {recommendation['recommendation']['alternative']}")
print(f"Confidence: {recommendation['recommendation']['confidence']}%")
Common Use Cases
1. Method Selection
dss = DecisionSupportSystem("Foundation Work")
dss.set_decision_type(DecisionType.METHOD_SELECTION)
dss.add_standard_criteria()
dss.add_alternative(Alternative("M1", "Cast-in-place", "Traditional method",
scores={"cost": 200000, "duration": 45, "quality": 9, "risk": 2, "sustainability": 6}))
dss.add_alternative(Alternative("M2", "Precast", "Prefabricated elements",
scores={"cost": 250000, "duration": 30, "quality": 8, "risk": 3, "sustainability": 8}))
2. Sensitivity Analysis
sensitivity = dss.sensitivity_analysis("cost", (0.1, 0.5, 0.1))
for result in sensitivity['analysis']:
print(f"Weight {result['weight']}: Top choice = {result['rankings'][0]['alternative']}")
3. Export Analysis
dss.export_to_excel("decision_analysis.xlsx")
Resources
- DDC Book: Chapter 4.1 - Data Analytics and Decision Making
- Website: https://datadrivenconstruction.io