Polyclaw

PolyClaw

Trading-enabled Polymarket skill for OpenClaw. Browse markets, manage wallets, execute trades, and track positions.

Features

• Market Browsing - Search and browse Polymarket prediction markets
• Wallet Management - Env-var based wallet configuration
• Trading - Buy YES/NO positions via split + CLOB execution
• Position Tracking - Track entry prices, current prices, and P&L
• Hedge Discovery - LLM-powered covering portfolio discovery via logical implications

Quick Start

First, install dependencies (from skill directory):

cd {baseDir}
uv sync

First-Time Setup (Required for Trading)

Before your first trade, set Polymarket contract approvals (one-time, costs ~0.01 POL in gas):

uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet approve

This submits 6 approval transactions to Polygon. You only need to do this once per wallet.

Browse Markets

# Trending markets by volume
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py markets trending

# Search markets
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py markets search "election"

# Market details (returns full JSON with all fields)
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py market <market_id>

Output options:

• Default output is a formatted table (good for display)
• Use --full flag for full question text without truncation
• Use --json flag via scripts/markets.py --json trending for structured JSON output

Wallet Management

# Check wallet status (address, balances)
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet status

# Set contract approvals (one-time)
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet approve

The wallet is configured via the POLYCLAW_PRIVATE_KEY environment variable.

Trading

# Buy YES position for $50
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py buy <market_id> YES 50

# Buy NO position for $25
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py buy <market_id> NO 25

Positions

# List all positions with P&L
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py positions

Hedge Discovery

Find covering portfolios - pairs of market positions that hedge each other via contrapositive logic.

# Scan trending markets for hedges
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py hedge scan

# Scan markets matching a query
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py hedge scan --query "election"

# Analyze specific markets for hedging relationship
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py hedge analyze <market_id_1> <market_id_2>

Output options:

• Default output is a formatted table showing Tier, Coverage, Cost, Target, and Cover
• Use --json flag for structured JSON output
• Use --min-coverage 0.90 to filter by minimum coverage (default 0.85)
• Use --tier 1 to filter by tier (1=best, default 2)

Coverage tiers:

• Tier 1 (HIGH): >=95% coverage - near-arbitrage opportunities
• Tier 2 (GOOD): 90-95% - strong hedges
• Tier 3 (MODERATE): 85-90% - decent but noticeable risk
• Tier 4 (LOW): <85% - speculative (filtered by default)

LLM model: Uses nvidia/nemotron-nano-9b-v2:free via OpenRouter. Model selection matters — some models find spurious correlations while others (like DeepSeek R1) have output format issues. Override with --model <model_id> if needed.

Security

For the MVP, the private key is stored in an environment variable for simplicity and Claude Code compatibility.

Security Warning: Keep only small amounts in this wallet. Withdraw regularly to a secure wallet.

Environment Variables

Security Warning: Keep only small amounts in this wallet. Withdraw regularly to a secure wallet. The private key in an env var is convenient for automation but less secure than encrypted storage.

Trading Flow

1. Split Position - USDC.e is split into YES + NO tokens via CTF contract
2. Sell Unwanted - The unwanted side is sold via CLOB order book
3. Result - You hold the wanted position, recovered partial cost from selling unwanted

Example: Buy YES at $0.70

• Split $100 USDC.e → 100 YES + 100 NO tokens
• Sell 100 NO tokens at ~$0.30 → recover ~$27 USDC.e
• Net cost: ~$73 for 100 YES tokens (entry: $0.73)

Polymarket Contracts (Polygon Mainnet)

• USDC.e: 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174
• CTF (Conditional Tokens): 0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045
• CTF Exchange: 0x4bFb41d5B3570DeFd03C39a9A4D8dE6Bd8B8982E

Dependencies

Install with uv (from skill directory):

cd {baseDir}
uv sync

Limitations

• Trading requires wallet approval setup (one-time)
• CLOB sells may fail if liquidity is insufficient

CLOB Cloudflare Blocking

Polymarket's CLOB API uses Cloudflare protection that blocks POST requests from many IPs, including datacenter IPs and some residential ISPs. This affects the "sell unwanted tokens" step.

Solution: Residential proxy with retry logic

The recommended setup uses a rotating residential proxy (e.g., IPRoyal, BrightData). The CLOB client automatically retries with new IPs until one works:

export HTTPS_PROXY="http://user:pass@geo.iproyal.com:12321"
export CLOB_MAX_RETRIES=10  # Default is 5

With this setup, CLOB orders typically succeed within 5-10 retries as the proxy rotates through IPs until finding an unblocked one.

Alternative workarounds:

1. Use --skip-sell — Keep both YES and NO tokens, sell manually on polymarket.com
2. No proxy — Split still works; only CLOB sell is affected

If CLOB fails after all retries, your split still succeeded. The output tells you how many tokens to sell manually.

Troubleshooting

"No wallet available"

Set the POLYCLAW_PRIVATE_KEY environment variable:

export POLYCLAW_PRIVATE_KEY="0x..."

"Insufficient USDC.e"

Check balance with uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet status. You need USDC.e (bridged USDC) on Polygon.

"CLOB order failed"

The CLOB sell may fail due to:

• Insufficient liquidity at the sell price
• IP blocked by Cloudflare (try proxy)

Your split still succeeded - you have the tokens, just couldn't sell unwanted side.

"Approvals not set"

First trade requires contract approvals. Run:

uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet approve

License

MIT