KCNyu Portfolio Risk Review
Single-pass portfolio review. For multi-role analyst framework, use portfolio-swarm-review instead.
Required reads
In this order:
/root/.openclaw/workspace/MEMORY.md— rules, traps, user preferences/root/.openclaw/workspace/portfolio.json— authoritative holdings/root/.openclaw/workspace/memory/theses/*.json— canonical thesis state when present../daily-deep-brief/references/technical-playbooks.md— read before any add / average-down plan/root/.openclaw/workspace/TOOLS.md— data chain reference if anything fails
portfolio.json is the only active/exited list: shares > 0 is held, shares == 0
is exited. There is no hand-maintained summary any more — the one that used to sit
here went 3.5 months without a sync and ended up naming seven held positions as
exited (#1067).
The thesis registry is read-only during a portfolio review. Missing files mean
unknown, not permission to reconstruct a baseline from prior prose. Price moves
may change valuation but cannot by themselves change business, moat, or management.
Fresh data rule
Always refresh quotes before judging the book. Use the workspace scripts.
# US: 7-route fallback, RSI/MA/news/signal, writes back to portfolio.json
/root/.local/bin/clawock analyze-us
/root/.local/bin/clawock analyze-us --no-news # skip news
# HK: Tencent primary + Eastmoney full-batch independent cross-check/fallback → stooq → yfinance
/root/.local/bin/clawock analyze-hk
/root/.local/bin/clawock analyze-hk --no-news
If any leg of the fallback fails for a holding, mark that line stale in the output. Special trap: 00100 only has Tencent — Tencent down means 00100 is stale.
KR linkage: 07709/07747 are exited (shares == 0), but SKHY (SK Hynix ADR) can be
held — check portfolio.json before deciding whether a KR fetch is needed rather
than assuming the chain is dead.
Holdings bucketing
Do not hardcode tickers here — names rotate. Pull the active list from portfolio.json (shares > 0), then bucket by category each run:
| Bucket | What goes in |
|---|---|
| US growth / single-name beta | Active US non-leveraged names (typically aggressive growth) |
| US leverage ETF | Anything in portfolio.json flagged is_leveraged_etf: true (SOXL, RKLX, MSFU, ROBN-class names; rotates over time) |
| US theme / special situation | Regulatory / catalyst-driven (e.g. CRCL ~ GENIUS Act stablecoin) |
| HK lower-beta core | Index / sector ETFs without leverage (currently 03032, 03033) |
| HK single-name | Individual HK equities (currently 00100 AI, 02208 wind) |
| HK leverage ETF | 2x/3x recipes (currently 07226 南方2x恒科) |
The framing is stable; the contents drift. Verify each session against portfolio.json.
Four-lens analysis
Lens A — PnL and position quality
For each active holding:
- gain/loss in $ and %
- distance to breakeven
- thesis status: intact / weakening / broken
- holdable / trim / T-only / cut
Lens B — Cross-market linkage
US side (typically):
- NASDAQ / 纳指夜盘 tone — drives next-day HK tech open
- Specific theme threads (e.g. stablecoin reg for CRCL, space/defense for RKLB)
HK side:
- 恒科指数方向 — primary driver for 03032 / 03033 / 07226
- 南向资金当日净流向 (web search when material)
- Sector policy: 风电 for 02208, AI capex for 00100
Note explicit "supportive / neutral / weak" tag for each chain.
Lens C — Concentration and drawdown risk
- Largest $ loss contributors right now
- Leverage decay risk (any 2x/3x ETF held > 5 trading days?)
- Correlation clusters (e.g. multiple 杠杆 ETF + single high-beta name = one bet)
- One-bad-day worst case for the book
Lens D — Action priority
Sort positions into:
- Hold and watch — thesis intact
- Trim on rebound — thesis weakening but not broken; wait for strength
- T-only — don't add, exit on bounces, no overnight conviction
- Add only on trigger — define the trigger explicitly (price, MA cross, earnings, policy)
Keep core_position, tactical_entry, and risk_rebalance separate. A concentrated
non-leveraged core may remain held while one packet-approved tactical tranche is added;
loss alone never qualifies. For HK, state board lots and use whole-lot multiples; missing
lot_size blocks an add. For US, use integer shares under the current ledger contract.
Output structure
Portfolio snapshot
- 总 US PnL / 总 HK PnL
- 最大盈利位 / 最大亏损位
- 主要风险源 (one line)
Position-by-position
Table format:
| Ticker | Price | PnL ($) | PnL (%) | One-line verdict |
|---|
Cross-market read
- US side: tone + key threads
- HK side: 恒科方向 + 南向 + sector policy notes
Top 3 risks (ranked)
Highest to lowest, each with concrete cause.
Action plan
Four buckets from Lens D, with concrete triggers/levels where applicable.
Style rules
- Direct, practical, no academic hedging
- Tie every conclusion to actual holdings (no hypothetical names)
- Respect the user's aggressive style — but call real risk plainly
- Tables for any 3+ data points
- Cite data freshness: "数据: clawock analyze-us / clawock analyze-hk {timestamp}"
- Flag stale legs loudly with ⚠️ before any conclusion drawn from them
- Do not substitute external "best practice" frameworks for the workspace data chain