kinhluan Diffusion Release Tracking
Track adoption position on Rogers' bell curve. Decide when to expand each Release phase.
The 4 Release Gates
[Ship] → [Innovator Gate] → [Early Adopter Gate] → [Chasm Gate] → [Majority Gate]
~2.5% ~16% 16→50% 50→100%
flag on / internal opt-in beta beachhead scale
Agent flow:
- Identify which gate the feature is currently at — ask user or infer from rollout %
- Collect signals for that gate only — do not ask about other gates
- Assess each signal against threshold
- Produce diagnosis + verdict + markdown report + next gate criteria
Gate 1: Innovator Gate
From: Ship (dark launch / internal flag on) To: Opt-in beta / first external users (~2.5%) Question: Is the feature stable and does it complete the core job?
| Signal | Type | Go Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| P0/P1 bug count | Quant | 0 P0, ≤2 P1 |
| Core job completion rate | Quant | ≥70% of attempts succeed end-to-end |
| Internal team feedback | Qual | "Usable, no blockers" from dogfood users |
| Dark launch error rate | Quant | ≤1% server errors on feature path |
Gate 2: Early Adopter Gate
From: Opt-in beta To: 5–20% phased rollout Question: Is there retention signal and do users advocate for the feature?
| Signal | Type | Go Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Feature activation rate | Quant | ≥30% of exposed users trigger the feature at least once |
| Day-7 retention | Quant | ≥25% of activators return and use the feature again by day 7 |
| "Aha moment" confirmed | Qual | ≥5 user interviews confirm the core value moment |
| Organic advocate signal | Qual | ≥1 user shares, recommends, or references the feature unprompted |
Gate 3: Chasm Gate ← Most Critical
From: 20% rollout To: 50% rollout Question: Is the whole product ready for pragmatic, risk-averse users?
The Chasm (Moore) is where most products die. Early Adopters tolerate rough edges; Early Majority demands a complete solution — docs, support, onboarding, proof.
| Signal | Type | Go Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Retention curve shape | Quant | Curve flattening after week 3, not still declining |
| NPS or CSAT | Quant | NPS ≥20 or CSAT ≥4/5 |
| Whole product gaps | Qual | Docs, onboarding, and support sufficient for a non-technical user |
| Beachhead vertical | Qual | 1 niche segment dominated completely before expanding to adjacent segments |
| Reference story | Qual | ≥1 customer case study with real ROI numbers, not just quotes |
Gate 4: Majority Gate
From: 50% rollout To: 100% rollout Question: Are unit economics and infrastructure ready for full scale?
| Signal | Type | Go Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly churn | Quant | ≤5% for B2B, ≤10% for consumer |
| Support ticket volume | Quant | Resolvable with current team without backlog growth |
| Scalability headroom | Quant | Infrastructure handles 3× current peak load |
| Pricing/standards fit | Qual | Late Majority objections (price, compliance, standards) addressed |
Output Format
After collecting signals, produce this report:
## Rogers Diffusion Report — [Feature Name]
**Date:** YYYY-MM-DD
**Current Gate:** [Gate Name]
**Rollout:** X% of users
### Signal Assessment
| Signal | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| [signal name] | ✅/⚠️/❌ | [threshold vs actual value or observation] |
### Diagnosis
[2–4 sentences: current position on bell curve, which criteria are met or missing, primary risk to expansion.]
### Recommendation
**[✅ GO / ⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO / ❌ NO-GO]** — [one-sentence action].
[If not full GO: what to fix before next gate.]
### Next Gate Criteria
- [ ] [criterion 1]
- [ ] [criterion 2]
Verdict levels:
✅ GO— All gate criteria met. Expand rollout to next phase.⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO— Majority met. Expand cautiously (hold at current %) while fixing gaps.❌ NO-GO— Critical criteria missing. Do not expand rollout. Address gaps first.
Threshold Calibration Notes
Default thresholds are reasonable baselines. Agent should flag when context warrants adjustment:
- B2B enterprise: Day-7 retention threshold may be lower (usage is weekly/monthly by nature)
- Internal tooling: Advocate signal may be irrelevant; focus on job completion and error rate
- Consumer viral product: Organic advocate signal is more critical, weight it higher
- Regulated industry: Whole product gap check must include compliance/security sign-off
Integration with Ship≠Release Workflow
This skill operationalizes the Agile Delivery principle from business-product-leadership:
- Ship = code behind feature flag (before Innovator Gate)
- Release = advancing through gates by turning flags on for wider cohorts
For strategic context on JTBD, market positioning, and The Chasm theory, use the business-product-leadership skill.
DORA Prerequisite: Deployment Frequency
Before attempting phased gate advancement, assess DORA Deployment Frequency tier (use dora-core skill):
| DORA DF Tier | Gate Strategy |
|---|---|
| Elite (on-demand) | Full gate strategy applies — iterate rapidly per gate |
| High (daily–weekly) | Gate iteration feasible — allow longer validation windows |
| Medium (weekly–monthly) | Plan gate windows months in advance; reduce gate count |
| Low (monthly+) | Fix DF first. Cannot run meaningful phased rollouts at this cadence |
Low Deployment Frequency is a delivery bottleneck that makes Rogers gate validation impossible — by the time you gather signal, the market window has shifted.