Capital Allocation

Capital Allocation — Integrated Financial Plan

Synthesize pension evaluation, real estate readiness, and retirement projection into an integrated capital allocation recommendation. This skill is an orchestrator — it reads reports generated by other skills and combines their findings into a unified decision framework. It does not duplicate calculations already performed by evaluate-pension, real-estate-readiness, or retirement-readiness.

Load references/allocation-framework.md for the decision matrix structure, scoring criteria, and interaction effects between pension and property decisions.

Load ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/financial-analysis/references/german-financial-system.md for tax parameters and regulatory context.

Step 1: Check Prerequisites

Look for existing analysis reports in finance/reports/. Read each that exists:

For each report found, check the date in the YAML frontmatter. If older than 3 months, warn the user that the data may be stale and recommend re-running the relevant skill.

If required reports are missing: Stop and inform the user which commands to run first:

• Missing pension evaluation → "Run /evaluate-pension first to analyze your pension products."
• Missing real estate readiness → "Run /real-estate-check first to assess your property purchase readiness."
• Missing retirement readiness → "Run /evaluate-pension retirement readiness for a three-pillar projection. This is recommended but not required — the analysis will proceed without it, using a simplified retirement estimate."

Do not proceed without at least the pension evaluation and real estate readiness reports.

Step 2: Extract Key Financial Parameters

Read all data files to build a unified financial snapshot:

From finance/data/bank-accounts.md:

• Total liquid savings (Girokonto + Tagesgeld)
• Total investments (Depot value)
• Emergency reserve (earmarked amount)
• Deployable capital = Total liquid - Emergency reserve - Locked funds

From finance/data/employment.md:

• Net monthly salary
• Marginal tax rate (derive from Steuerklasse and gross salary)
• Employer bAV contribution

From finance/data/monthly-budget.md:

• Monthly savings capacity = Total income - Total expenses (before current pension/investment contributions)
• Current pension contribution stream (monthly)
• Current ETF/investment contribution stream (monthly)

From finance/data/pension.md:

• Total private pension contributions (monthly)
• Riester contract value (if exists — needed for Wohn-Riester scenario)

From finance/data/property-goals.md:

• Target property price (or range)
• Property type (apartment/house)
• Timeline preference

Compile into a summary table at the top of the analysis.

Step 3: Extract Key Findings from Reports

From the pension evaluation report, extract:

• Current pension plan assessment (keep / switch / make paid-up)
• Cost drag (annual fee percentage and total EUR lost)
• Best alternative identified (and its projected advantage)

From the real estate readiness report, extract:

• Readiness score (Ready / Almost Ready / Not Yet Ready)
• Maximum affordable property price
• Required Eigenkapital (down payment + Kaufnebenkosten)
• Current Eigenkapital gap (if any)
• Monthly mortgage payment at target price

From the retirement readiness report (if available), extract:

• Pension gap (Versorgungslücke) in EUR/month
• GRV projected monthly payout
• Total projected retirement income across all pillars
• Wohn-Riester trade-off result (if modeled)

Step 4: Model Four Scenarios

For each scenario, project the financial position at 10, 20, and 30 years (or until retirement, whichever comes first). Use the assumptions from the prerequisite reports.

Scenario A — Pension Priority

Maximize tax-advantaged pension contributions. Delay property purchase.

• Increase Rürup contributions to the annual deduction ceiling (currently ~EUR 27,566 single). Calculate annual tax savings at the marginal rate.
• Optimize Riester: ensure full Zulage qualification (minimum Eigenbeitrag = 4% of Vorjahres-Brutto - Zulagen).
• Increase bAV Entgeltumwandlung if employer matching exists.
• Switch high-cost pension products to low-cost alternatives (per pension evaluation findings).
• Redirect all remaining savings to ETF Sparplan for long-term growth.
• Property purchase deferred indefinitely — continue renting.
• Calculate: net monthly outflow change, projected net worth at 67, projected monthly retirement income.

Scenario B — Property Priority

Redirect discretionary savings toward property equity. Consider making private pension paid-up.

• Make high-cost private pension paid-up (Beitragsfreistellung) per pension evaluation recommendation.
• Maintain only minimum pension contributions (GRV mandatory, Riester minimum for Zulage if cost-effective).
• Redirect freed-up monthly amount to down payment savings.
• Calculate timeline to reach required Eigenkapital: months = (Required equity - Current deployable capital) / Monthly redirected savings.
• Model the property purchase: mortgage amount, monthly Annuität, total interest over loan term.
• After purchase: monthly outflow shifts from rent to mortgage + running costs.
• Calculate: timeline to purchase, projected net worth at 67 (property equity + reduced pension), projected monthly retirement income (lower pension but no rent expense).

Scenario C — Balanced

Maintain minimum pension contributions for tax benefit. Allocate remaining savings to property equity.

• Continue Rürup at a moderate level (enough for meaningful tax deduction, e.g., EUR 500/month).
• Continue Riester minimum contribution for Zulage.
• Switch high-cost pension to low-cost alternative (per evaluation).
• Allocate remaining monthly savings to property equity accumulation.
• Calculate the longer timeline for both goals: later property purchase than Scenario B, better pension than Scenario B, but not as strong as Scenario A on either axis.
• Calculate: projected net worth at 67 (moderate pension + property equity), timeline to purchase, monthly retirement income.

Scenario D — Wohn-Riester Hybrid

Use Riester capital for property purchase. Continue Rürup for tax deduction.

• Apply Riester contract value to property purchase (Altersvorsorge-Eigenheimbetrag).
• This reduces the required Eigenkapital from savings → earlier purchase possible.
• Continue Rürup contributions at optimal level for tax deduction.
• Model the Wohnförderkonto tax liability at retirement.
• Calculate: accelerated purchase timeline, mortgage reduction from Riester capital, interest savings, net retirement income after Wohnförderkonto taxation.
• Only model this scenario if the user has a Riester contract. If no Riester exists, skip this scenario and note that it is not applicable.

Step 5: Scoring Matrix

Score each scenario on 6 criteria. Use a 1–5 scale (5 = best).

Calculate a weighted score for each scenario. Present in a comparison table.

If the user provided a constraint in the argument (e.g., "buy within 2 years"), adjust the weights: increase the timeline-to-property weight and decrease others proportionally. If "maximize pension", increase the retirement income weight. If "prioritize liquidity", increase the liquidity weight.

Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis

Test how the recommendation changes under different assumptions:

Mortgage Rate Sensitivity

Higher rates reduce affordability → may shift recommendation toward Scenario A.

Property Appreciation Sensitivity

Higher appreciation improves property scenarios; flat appreciation favors pension-only.

Pension Return Sensitivity

Model at 5%, 7%, and 9% gross return for ETF/pension projections. Show impact on pension gap and net worth for Scenario A vs. B.

Present a brief summary: "The recommendation is robust if [conditions] but shifts to [alternative] if [conditions change]."

Step 7: Generate the Capital Allocation Report

Create the output file at finance/reports/capital-allocation-YYYY-MM.md, replacing YYYY-MM with the current year and month.

---
title: "Capital Allocation Plan"
date: YYYY-MM-DD
type: capital-allocation
status: draft
prerequisite-reports:
  - pension-evaluation-YYYY-MM
  - real-estate-readiness-YYYY-MM
  - retirement-readiness-YYYY-MM
---

Report Sections

1. Executive Summary: 3–5 sentences stating the recommended scenario, the key trade-off, and the most important next step.

2. Financial Snapshot: Summary table of the user's current position — income, savings, deployable capital, pension contributions, property target, pension gap.

3. Scenario Comparison: Full comparison table showing all four scenarios (or three if Wohn-Riester is not applicable) across 10/20/30-year horizons. Columns: net worth, retirement income, timeline to purchase, monthly outflow change, tax savings.

4. Scoring Matrix: The weighted scoring table from Step 5 with the final recommendation highlighted.

5. Sensitivity Analysis: Tables from Step 6 showing how the recommendation changes under different assumptions.

6. Recommended Action Plan: Phased roadmap for the recommended scenario:

   • Immediate (next 30 days): e.g., "Switch pension provider", "Open Tagesgeld for down payment", "File Beitragsfreistellung"
   • Short-term (next 12 months): e.g., "Accumulate EUR X in down payment savings", "Increase Rürup to EUR Y/month"
   • Medium-term (1–3 years): e.g., "Begin active property search when Eigenkapital reaches EUR Z", "Review and re-run this analysis annually"

7. Key Risks: Specific risks for the recommended scenario — interest rate risk, concentration risk, career risk, regulatory changes.

8. Prerequisite Report References: Link to the underlying reports that informed this analysis. Note the dates and flag any that should be refreshed.

Formatting Rules

• Link German financial terms to the glossary using wiki-links: [[glossary#Term|Term]]
• Use > [!info] callouts to explain cross-cutting concepts (capital allocation, opportunity cost, concentration risk, tax-deferred compounding)
• Use > [!warning] callouts for professional referral flags
• Show all math, assumptions, and intermediate calculations
• Present both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) EUR values
• Use tables for all comparisons — make them scannable

Mandatory Footer

## Disclaimer

This analysis is generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute Anlageberatung (investment advice) or Versicherungsberatung (insurance advice) within the meaning of German financial regulation (GewO §34d, §34f). All projections are based on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may change. Consult a qualified Honorar-Finanzanlagenberater or Steuerberater before making financial decisions.

## When to Consult a Professional

- [Specific referral flags based on findings — tailor to the actual analysis]

Step 8: Glossary Maintenance

After completing the report, check the glossary for any new terms introduced. Key terms to verify: Kapitalallokation, Vermögensaufbau, Beitragsfreistellung, Wohnförderkonto, Altersvorsorge-Eigenheimbetrag, Opportunitätskosten, Klumpenrisiko.

Important Rules

• Never fabricate financial data. If a prerequisite report is missing, stop and direct the user to generate it.
• This skill is an orchestrator — do not recalculate pension cost drag, property affordability, or GRV projections from scratch. Read those findings from the prerequisite reports.
• All monetary values in EUR. All output in English.
• If the user provides a constraint argument, adjust the scoring weights accordingly and state the adjustment in the report.
• The report status is always "draft" — the user must review before acting on any recommendation.
• Always recommend that the user re-run this analysis annually or after major financial changes (salary change, inheritance, market shift, regulatory change).