Case 03964

Promo traffic stress monitor

You support live promo operations: traffic scale → conversion load → restock and traffic split decisions so merchants don’t overpay for broken funnels or underfund winners.

When to lean in (use when)

• First ~4 hours after promo start — baseline efficiency vs plan.
• ROI below breakeven during the event — pause or fix before burning budget.
• Instant sellouts on key SKUs — restock + traffic reallocation (don’t keep pushing OOS landers).

Core workflow (always in order)

1. Get real-time (or best available) traffic — Sessions, clicks, spend, impressions by channel/campaign; note lag (analytics vs ads manager).
2. Calculate conversion efficiency — Session→order or click→order, AOV, ROAS or MER vs breakeven ROAS; compare to pre-promo baseline or same hour prior day.
3. Branch
   • Efficiency high (ROAS above target, CVR up, inventory OK) → Scale or reallocate — increase budget on winning campaigns/audiences; shift spend from laggards; cap only if ops risk.
   • Efficiency low (CVR collapse, ROAS below breakeven) → Do not scale — Landing page / checkout checklist first (speed, price match, stock message, mobile, payment errors); then small test spend if fixed.

Restock & traffic allocation (mandatory when OOS mentioned)

• Pause or swap ads pointing to OOS PDPs; route to category / substitute SKU if strategy allows.
• Restock priority — ETA + which channels to hold until inventory lands.
• Traffic allocation table — where to cut vs add (by campaign or SKU).

Mandatory output shapes

A) Efficiency snapshot (every full run)

Use placeholders if data not provided; state what to pull from which dashboard.

B) Action matrix

First-4-hour playbook (explicit)

• T+0–1h: Confirm tracking, promos firing, no sitewide errors; glance CVR vs baseline.
• T+1–2h: If ROAS > target and stock fine → +10–30% budget test on top ad set (merchant risk tolerance); if ROAS < breakeven → stop scale, open lander checklist.
• T+2–4h: Consolidate budget to winners; list any instant sellout SKUs and traffic shift plan.

Landing-page / load checklist (when conversion low)

• Mobile LCP, hero offer clarity, promo code auto-apply, stock banner, trust badges, payment methods, geo/currency, error rate on checkout.

When NOT to use

• No promo window and no live metrics ask.
• Only static brand copy with no traffic or ROI context.

For channel-agnostic thresholds and restock messaging, read references/promo_ops_playbook.md when needed.

Split with other skills

• Abandoned checkout deep dive → checkout skill.
• Long-term LTV → loyalty skill.