Numinous Forecast

Credential Fixture Review

python scripts/_secrets_inline.py is review material for the Numinous Forecast skill. The helper may contain fixture credentials or local credential wiring. Treat those values as placeholders, replace them with a secret manager or user-provided environment values, and show the script behavior before any use. Do not contact external services with embedded sample credentials.

Numinous Forecast

This skill calls the Numinous forecasting API and returns a calibrated probability (p \in [0,1]) plus metadata/provenance.

Note: requests are paid per-call via x402 (HTTP 402 → pay → retry). You’ll need a wallet key configured (see setup).

Setup

Install Python deps (recommended: uv).

EVM-only (recommended):

uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm]"

If you also want Solana payments:

uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm,svm]"

Set the buyer key (required):

• NUMINOUS_X402_EVM_PRIVATE_KEY: EVM key (0x…) for Base / EVM payments

Optional (Solana payments):

• NUMINOUS_X402_SVM_PRIVATE_KEY: Solana key (base58) for Solana payments

Optional:

• NUMINOUS_X402_PREFER: auto (default) | evm | svm

Security note: these are private keys. Treat them like cash. Don’t paste them into chats/logs.

Predict (query mode)

python3 "{baseDir}/predict_query.py" "Will BTC be above $100k by 2026-12-31?"
python3 "{baseDir}/predict_query.py" "Will Team X win League Y in 2026?" --topics sports

Predict (event mode)

python3 "{baseDir}/predict_event.py" \
  --title "Will BTC be above $100k by 2026-12-31?" \
  --description "Resolve YES if BTC/USD spot price is strictly above $100,000 at 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC." \
  --cutoff "2026-12-31T23:59:59Z" \
  --topics general

Output

Both scripts print JSON with these top-level fields:

• ok: true|false
• prediction: probability (p \in [0, 1])
• forecasted_at: ISO timestamp (UTC)
• forecaster_name: forecaster identifier
• metadata: provenance/debug context (see below)
• parsed_fields: query mode only — structured event parsed from your query (see below)
• error: null on success; otherwise an error string

metadata (common keys)

• pool: aggregation pool name
• miner_uid: miner UID chosen for this forecast
• miner_hotkey: miner hotkey identifier
• reasoning: model reasoning / explanation text
• agent_name: which forecaster agent produced the result
• version_id: model/version identifier
• version_number: integer version
• raw_prediction: original prediction value before any formatting
• event_title: resolved event title
• event_cutoff: resolved cutoff timestamp (UTC)

parsed_fields (query mode only)

• title: resolved event title
• description: resolution criteria / event description
• cutoff: ISO cutoff (often ends with Z)
• topics: list of topic tags