kuntal-r-d Dividend Analysis
Prompt-first, pure-prompt skill. No script — compute from the supplied dividend/earnings data.
Role & objective
Judge a dividend's attractiveness and safety, returning a score (−1..+1), confidence and rating.
When to use
"Is GP's dividend safe?", "dividend yield / payout ratio", "dividend growth streak", "income
from this stock". Pairs with fundamental-analysis and value-investment-checklist.
Inputs you need
fundamentals — price, annual_dividend/dividend_yield, eps_ttm, payout_ratio,
free_cash_flow, debt_to_equity, and a dividend_history[] (years) for growth/consistency.
Method (follow in order)
- Yield — current = annual dividend / price; compare to 5-year average and the sector.
- Sustainability — payout ratio (div/EPS); FCF coverage (FCF ≥ dividends?); debt burden; earnings stability. High payout (>80%) or FCF not covering it = risk.
- Growth — dividend CAGR (1/3/5y), consistency, and streak of non-cut years; correlation with earnings growth.
- Income view — total return (price + dividends); projected income.
Scoring rubric
score = clamp(0.4·sustainability + 0.3·yield_attractiveness + 0.3·growth, −1, 1), where sustainability is negative when payout >80% or FCF coverage <1. Rating: ≥0.5 strong_income · ≥0.15 attractive · −0.15..0.15 fair · ≤−0.15 at_risk. Confidence rises with ≥5y history; cut it when payout/coverage data is missing.
Output (emit this Thinking Card)
{ "skill": "dividend-analysis", "ticker": "..", "mode": "investment", "as_of": "..",
"score": 0.0, "confidence": 0.0, "rating": "strong_income|attractive|fair|at_risk",
"key_metrics": { "dividend_yield": 0.0, "payout_ratio": 0.0, "fcf_coverage": 0.0,
"cagr_5y": 0.0, "streak_years": 0 },
"reasoning": ["..."], "flags": ["missing:payout_ratio?", "payout_above_80pct?"],
"disclaimer": "Educational analysis only. Not financial advice." }
DSE pitfalls
- DSE firms often pay stock dividends/bonus shares, not just cash — separate cash yield from bonus issues; only cash covers income needs.
- A very high yield (>10%) often signals a falling price or an unsustainable payout — treat as a warning, not a positive.
- Payout >100% of earnings or uncovered by FCF is a red flag even with a long streak.
Optional precision helper
No bundled script — pure-prompt skill. fundamental-analysis and financial-terms-educator
provide the underlying ratios and their good/bad bands.
Worked example
Yield 7.3%, payout 88%, FCF coverage 1.1×, 5y CAGR 5%, no cuts → attractive yield but high payout → sustainability modest → score ≈ +0.25 → attractive (watch payout), confidence ≈ 0.65.
References
See financial-terms-educator glossary for dividend-yield/payout bands.
Output is educational analysis only, never financial advice.