lamm-mit What-If Oracle Skill — Full Content Extract
Overview
The What-If Oracle is a structured scenario analysis tool designed to explore uncertain futures through multi-branch possibility mapping. It activates when users ask speculative questions about futures, decisions, risks, or consequences.
Core Framework: 0·IF·1
The system operates on three elements:
- 0: The unexpressed potential state
- 1: The expressed current reality
- IF: The conditional transformation between them
The precision of the IF determines analysis quality. Vague questions yield vague results; specific variables produce actionable intelligence.
Four-Phase Process
Phase 1 — Frame: Sharpen vague What-Ifs by decomposing into variable, magnitude, timeframe, and context. Present the refined question for confirmation.
Phase 2 — Map: Generate 4-6 scenario branches:
- Ω Best Case (maximum upside)
- α Likely Case (most probable path)
- Δ Worst Case (maximum downside)
- Ψ Wild Card (black swan territory)
- Φ Contrarian (opposite of consensus)
- ∞ Second Order (cascading ripple effects)
Phase 3 — Analyze: For each branch, detail probability, narrative, key assumptions, trigger conditions, consequences timeline, required responses, and overlooked insights.
Phase 4 — Synthesize: Provide probability distribution, identify robust cross-branch actions, define decision triggers, and surface the "1% insight" most analysis overlooks.
Operating Modes
- Quick Oracle: Three branches, fast analysis
- Deep Oracle: Full six-branch analysis with comprehensive detail
- Scenario Chain: Recursive analysis within branches
- Reverse Oracle: Backward mapping from desired outcomes
- Competitive Oracle: Multi-stakeholder perspective analysis
Golden Ratio Principle
Allocate attention: 61.8% to primary scenario, 38.2% to alternatives—matching natural branching patterns.
License: MIT | Author: AHK Strategies