Financial Assumptions
No number without a stated reason behind it. Before any model exists, produce an ASSUMPTIONS.md that makes every driver explicit — the opposite of a spreadsheet full of numbers nobody can defend.
Read TASTE.md and CLAUDE.md first for the project's register and constraints (a bootstrapped brand and a VC-track startup make different assumptions on purpose). (Check for and open these with your Read/Glob tools, not shell commands — OS portability.)
What ASSUMPTIONS.md must declare
Each line is an input with its source and its basis — "because X," not a number in a vacuum. Mark each as known, estimated, or guess so the model's confidence is honest.
- Market basis — how TAM/SAM/SOM is derived (bottom-up preferred: users × price, not "1% of a big number").
- Pricing logic — what the price is anchored to (value, cost-plus, competitor, willingness-to-pay) and why.
- Cost drivers — fixed vs variable, unit cost, the main cost lines.
- Growth & conversion — acquisition rate, conversion, churn/retention, each with its basis.
- Cash — runway, burn, key timing (when revenue starts, payment terms).
- The load-bearing assumptions — flag the 2–3 the whole model hinges on. If one breaks, the model breaks; name them.
Rules
- Declare, don't default. No industry-standard number gets used silently — write down that you chose it and why.
- Bottom-up over top-down. Build totals from units and rates, not from a percentage of a headline figure.
- Conservative unless justified. Optimism is a declared choice traceable to evidence, never the default.
- Honesty labels. Known / estimated / guess on every line — a guess dressed as a fact is the core finance slop.
Not investment advice
This declares the project's own operating assumptions. It does not recommend securities, investments, or personal financial decisions. Keep that boundary.
Output
Write ASSUMPTIONS.md at project root. Short and declarative — read at the start of every finance session and by finance-critic on every deliverable. Link it from CLAUDE.md.
Before calling it done
Every driver has a basis and an honesty label, totals are built bottom-up, and the load-bearing assumptions are named. If a number can't point to its assumption, it doesn't belong yet.
1---2name: financial-assumptions3description: Force every financial number to rest on a declared assumption instead of a default or a guess, and write them to ASSUMPTIONS.md. Use before building any pricing, model, forecast, or pitch-deck financials, or when the user asks "what should we charge", "build a model", "what are the projections", "TAM". This is the finance department's anti-slop core — the ASSUMPTIONS.md it produces is what financial-model and finance-critic hold every number to.4---56# Financial Assumptions78No number without a stated reason behind it. Before any model exists, produce an `ASSUMPTIONS.md` that makes every driver explicit — the opposite of a spreadsheet full of numbers nobody can defend.910Read `TASTE.md` and `CLAUDE.md` first for the project's register and constraints (a bootstrapped brand and a VC-track startup make different assumptions on purpose). (Check for and open these with your Read/Glob tools, not shell commands — OS portability.)1112## What ASSUMPTIONS.md must declare1314Each line is an input with its **source and its basis** — "because X," not a number in a vacuum. Mark each as *known*, *estimated*, or *guess* so the model's confidence is honest.1516- **Market basis** — how TAM/SAM/SOM is derived (bottom-up preferred: users × price, not "1% of a big number").17- **Pricing logic** — what the price is anchored to (value, cost-plus, competitor, willingness-to-pay) and why.18- **Cost drivers** — fixed vs variable, unit cost, the main cost lines.19- **Growth & conversion** — acquisition rate, conversion, churn/retention, each with its basis.20- **Cash** — runway, burn, key timing (when revenue starts, payment terms).21- **The load-bearing assumptions** — flag the 2–3 the whole model hinges on. If one breaks, the model breaks; name them.2223## Rules2425- **Declare, don't default.** No industry-standard number gets used silently — write down that you chose it and why.26- **Bottom-up over top-down.** Build totals from units and rates, not from a percentage of a headline figure.27- **Conservative unless justified.** Optimism is a declared choice traceable to evidence, never the default.28- **Honesty labels.** *Known / estimated / guess* on every line — a guess dressed as a fact is the core finance slop.2930## Not investment advice3132This declares the project's own operating assumptions. It does not recommend securities, investments, or personal financial decisions. Keep that boundary.3334## Output3536Write `ASSUMPTIONS.md` at project root. Short and declarative — read at the start of every finance session and by `finance-critic` on every deliverable. Link it from `CLAUDE.md`.3738## Before calling it done3940Every driver has a basis and an honesty label, totals are built bottom-up, and the load-bearing assumptions are named. If a number can't point to its assumption, it doesn't belong yet.
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