Leooooooow Break-even Calculator Ecommerce
Calculate the real no-loss line before deciding whether to launch harder, discount harder, or scale paid traffic.
Use when
- You need a break-even view before launching or scaling a product
- A team is changing price, discount, bundle, or free-shipping policy
- Paid acquisition is growing but true profitability is unclear
- Margin pressure is increasing and you need a decision baseline fast
Do not use when
- You need full accounting, tax treatment, or cash-flow modeling
- Core inputs are missing and nobody can provide reasonable assumptions
- The task is valuation, forecasting, or board-level finance reporting
- You only want gross revenue math without cost realism
Inputs
- selling price
- COGS / unit cost
- shipping, packaging, pick-pack, processing fees
- payment fees / platform fees / marketplace fees
- discount assumptions
- refund / return drag assumptions if known
- ad spend, CPA, CAC, or target ROAS inputs
- fixed overhead if relevant to the decision
Workflow
- Separate variable cost from fixed cost.
- Calculate contribution margin per order.
- Estimate break-even units, break-even CPA, and/or break-even ROAS.
- Show how pricing or shipping policy changes move the threshold.
- Highlight the cost inputs that most strongly pressure profitability.
- Translate the math into a launch / hold / scale decision lens.
Output
- Core assumptions table
- Break-even results
- Key thresholds: units, CPA, ROAS, margin floor
- Sensitivity notes
- Recommended decision framing
Quality bar
- Math must be explicit and reviewable
- Variable vs fixed costs must stay separate
- Output must support action, not just produce one number
- Assumptions with low confidence must be labeled clearly
- Results should help a team avoid fake-profit decisions
What better looks like
Better output does more than say “your break-even is X.” It helps decide what to do next:
- whether the offer is viable
- how much ad room exists
- whether discounting breaks the model
- which cost lever matters most
- whether the business is near scale-ready or still too fragile
Resource
See references/output-template.md.